Iowa Basketball: Projected starting lineup and depth chart for 2023-24 season

The last time Iowa Basketball missed the NCAA Tournament (excluding 2020 COVID cancellation) was the 2017-2018 season. In the span of the next five seasons, Fran McCaffery’s club has averaged 22 wins per season along with earning accolades such as Luka Garza’s 2021 Naismith Player of the Year and the 2022 Big Ten Tournament Championship.

Although McCaffery has yet to take the Hawkeyes on a second weekend NCAA Tournament run, the Hawkeyes have been very solid over the past five seasons and the entirety of his tenure in Iowa City.

Last year, the Hawkeyes were good, but certainly not great. Iowa started the New Year at 8-6 (0-3) including a home loss to Eastern Illinois in late December, but would end up finding their footing en route to a 19-14 (11-9) season where they fell to Auburn in the Round of 64.

Gone are the likes of Kris Murray, Filip Rebraca and Connor McCaffery. Ahron Uhlis has also left as he transferred to Nebraska, but his eligibility is currently in question.

Entering the fold in Iowa City includes six new players — two transfers and four freshmen. Fran McCaffery was able to land two big men via the portal with Ben Krikke (Valparaiso) and Iowa City-native Even Brauns (Belmont). His freshman class includes Pryce Sandfort (Peyton Sandfort’s brother), Molinee High School high-low duo in Brock Harding and Owen Freeman and Ladji Dembele.

Although the expectations for the Hawkees may not be as high as they have been in the past five seasons, the overall talent and versatility of this team leaves plenty of room for optimism in Iowa City. Many of the newcomers will need to play a critical role and the expectations surrounding the dynamic trio of Tony Perkins, Peyton Sandfort and Patrick McCaffery will need to be met to see the Hawkeyes dance for the fifth consecutive season.

Let’s take a look at the potential rotation for the Hawkeyes.

Point Guard

Starter — Dasonte Bowen (25 mpg)

Bowen, who saw limited action last year, only averaged 3.1 PPG and 1.0 APG in 9.3 MPG. With the departure of Ahron Ulis, the door completely opens for Bowen to take that big-time jump heading into next season. Bowen should see a much more expanded role. In Iowa’s overseas trip this summer, it was Bowen who was their starting point guard (alongside Tony Perkins). Bowen is a talented shot-creator but can be much more dangerous if able to create for others at the PG spot.

Bench — Josh Dix (10 mpg)

Dix was another freshman last year who was in a similar place to Bowen. With a limited role, Dix only averaged 2.0 PPG in 9.2 MPG but did appear in 31 games last season. Dix is a spectacular shooter who had a tremendous outing in Iowa’s 93-84 overtime victory over Michigan. Dix logged 31 total minutes en route to a 10-point, 5-assist and 3-rebound game. Dix is more of a shooting guard, but I suspect he will get some reasonable minutes at the point guard spot to disperse minutes among their guards.

Bench/Reserve — Brock Harding (5 mpg or less)

Although true freshman Brock Harding will have an uphill climb to consistently crack the rotation, there is no denying his high IQ which can lead him to deliver quality production off the bench for McCaffery. A name to keep an eye on.

Shooting Guard

Starter — Tony Perkins (32 mpg)

Perkins assembled a high-quality junior season last year as he averaged 12.3 PPG, 4.1 RPG and 2.8 APG. Expect his usage rate and overall volume to vastly increase with the departure of Kris Murrary as he looks to be one of Iowa’s pivotal pieces heading into the season. Perkins showed flashes of excellence last season — specifically a 32-point outing on 8/11 shooting in an 81-79 victory over Illinois on Feb. 4th, 2023.

If Perkins’ statistical numbers continue to increase as they have been over his past three years in Iowa City, this is a player who can certainly find himself on an All-Big Ten team. He can finish well in transition, is strong-bodied and can even play some minutes at the point as well.

Bench — Josh Dix (8 mpg)

Dix will hear his name called at the shooting guard (as well as the previously noted point guard spot) specifically due to his longer frame and skilled three-point shooting. Although Dix is more of a typical shooting guard than a point guard, Tony Perkins’ projected increased volume means Dix will be filling in for both Bowen and Perkins. Overall, expect Dix to average nearly 18-22 minutes per game playing both the point guard and the shooting guard.

Bench/Reserve — Carter Kingsbury, Amarion Nimmers, Luc Laketa (5 mpg or less)

I don’t expect too many consistent roles with these players, though it’s a possibility Amarion Nimmers could hear his name called a few times this year. Here is my take on Nimmers via Twitter:

Nimmers, although his role is unclear at the moment, will be a pivotal piece for the Hawkeyes in the long term.

Small Forward

Starter — Payton Sandfort (30 mpg)

In 2021-2022, Keegan Murray increased his points per game from 7.2 to 23.5. In 2022-2023, his brother, Kris Murray, increased his points per game from 9.7 to 20.2. Who can make a jump similar to these two? Look no further than the reigning Big Ten 6th Man of the Year Payton Sandfort — who is expected to have a pivotal 2023-2024 campaign.

Last year, Sandfort averaged 10.3 points per game and 4.1 rebounds per game on 40.4% shooting from the field. Although he didn’t necessarily start the season out scorching hot from behind the arc, he became much more efficient in Big Ten play which is obviously a positive sign heading into next season. To reiterate Sandfort’s impact last year, according to Evan Mya.com, Sandfort recorded an OPBR rating of 4.26, which placed him ninth in the country amongst all Division One players.

With an increased role this upcoming season, Sandfort will undoubtedly have a dazzling green light in McCaffery’s high-octane offensive system. He is arguably Iowa’s most important piece and has the potential to put up some high-quality numbers.

Bench — Pryce Sandfort (10 mpg)

The brother of Payton Sandfort, the Waukee, Iowa native and 2023 Iowa Mr. Basketball winner Pryce Sandfort comes into Iowa City as a true freshman who is dazzling in potential. Pryce has a similar build to his brother as he comes in at 6’6 and 205 lbs, according to Iowa’s official athletic site. Although only a freshman, Pryce has shown his ability to connect from deep and will be a key backup three-point shooting forward for McCaffery.

Power Forward

Starter — Patrick McCaffery (30 mpg)

Patrick McCaffery, the son of head coach Fran McCaffery, had a solid season last year averaging 9.8 PPG and 3.5 RPG on 40% shooting from the field. Although his role and statistical numbers diminished fairly slightly from his sophomore season to junior season, McCaffery will be asked to carry a larger role and brings the intangibles and a veteran presence with his lengthy frame at the power forward spot.

McCaffery, who bravely took an indefinite leave of absence throughout most of last January to address mental health issues relating to anxiety, looks to be a consistent and experienced asset to Fran McCaffery’s squad. His ability to stretch the floor, play well off cuts and off the dribble with improved physicality gives him valuable skills to work with throughout the season.

Bench —  Ladji Dembele (10 mpg)

Hailing from Saint Benedict’s Prep in Newark, New Jersey, Dembele is a true freshman who could potentially play rotational minutes partially due to his impact on the defensive side of the floor. Ranked as a 43rd overall PF and 3-star prospect in the 2023 class, per 24/7 Sports, Dembele has the physicality, swiftness and length to disrupt many opponents and rebound the basketball while on defense. Here is an interesting quote from Dembele on what he brings defensively as a true freshman, via HawkeyesWire.com:

"“I watch a lot of defense. I’m not like a great defender, but I’m just trying to make sure I see the ball and I see my man. Pay attention on those little details. I think that’s the most important part for me,” Dembele said."

Center

Starter — Ben Krikke (20 mpg)

Krikke, who previously spent four years at Valparaiso, averaged 19.4 PPG, 5.9 RPG on 55.2% shooting from the field last season. Krikke averaged over 35.7 MPG last season and is capable of scoring (efficiently) in the post and even behind the arc. Although Krikke is more of a true big, he has shown the ability to run and stretch the floor — which continues the trend of versatility within the Iowa offense. Krikke won’t be playing as many minutes as he did last year, but his role remains pivotal and will be a key player down low to keep Iowa afloat throughout the rigors of the Big Ten.

Bench — Even Brauns (10 mpg)

Fran McCaffery added more big-man depth at the center spot with Iowa City, Iowa native Even Brauns hailing from Casey Alexander’s Belmont Bruins. As Even returns home, expect him to give valuable rotational minutes. Brauns averaged 7.0 PPG and 5.3 RPG on 30 of 31 starts for the 21-win Bruins club last year. Although his usage rate may not be off the charts, he reminds me of 2021-2022 Wisconsin Badger Chris Vogt — a valuable backup big who can provide quality minutes at any given point in the game.

Bench — Owen Freeman (10 mpg)

Freeman, a native of Molinee High School (just like fellow freshman Brock Harding), has the potential to make some serious noise as a true freshman. Jon Rothstein raved about Freeman’s quality outing during Iowa’s overseas trip:

Although I am not positive Freeman will get the starting role right away, there is certainly no doubt that he can start at some point this season given his strong play overseas. This is a name to watch out for as an under-the-radar breakout freshman.

Reserve — Riley Mulvey (5 mpg or less)

Given the Hawkeyes’ improved depth at the center spot, an increased role for Riley Mulvey remains unclear at the given moment. Mulvey played in 12 games last year and averaged 0.9 PPG. Certainly a depth piece and it will not be a surprise if he hears his name called to give a quick burst as he enters his junior season.