The current climate of collegiate athletics cannot be properly discussed without referencing conference realignment, which has been a major story in recent months. The very fabric of college sports seems to be rapidly changing right in front of our eyes, especially at the power conference level.
Of course, the Big 12 indirectly played a major role in the first step of this recent band of realignment when Oklahoma and Texas announced their intentions to depart for the SEC. More than a year has passed since that announcement, and the conference was proactive, with the additions of BYU from the WCC and Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF from the AAC; all joining for this current season of athletics.
However, this is not where the story ends for the Big 12 or college basketball as a whole. With the Pac-12 on death’s door, the Big 12 will be adding four more schools next season at the same time that Oklahoma and Texas depart the league. A conference that currently sits at 14 members will settle with a long-term number of 16, welcoming back Colorado and adding three other current Pac-12 programs.
This is a rapidly changing world, but this looks like the future for the Big 12 with these sixteen programs. Many of these decisions were made solely based on football and money, though it does raise some questions about these schools’ other sports. We’re not here today to bemoan volleyball or tennis teams having to travel across the continent, we’re focused on the impact on Big 12 Basketball.
We’ll be taking a closer look at the sixteen current and/or future members of the Big 12 and evaluating where these programs currently stand and what shape they’re in for the future. We’ll be ranking them from top to bottom along these guidelines, thinking about how they fit in with the league and where exactly their basketball programs are trending in the years ahead.
16. UCF
Many people remember how close UCF came to knocking Zion Williamson and Duke out of the 2019 NCAA Tournament, barely missing the game-winning shot in the final seconds of the second round. The Knights had a revival of a season, were ranked earlier in the year, and proved they belonged on the national stage, but this hasn’t exactly been a prolonged success.
That trip to the Big Dance was just the fifth in program history and their only appearance in the last eighteen years. UCF actually won the Atlantic Sun in back-to-back years before departing for Conference USA in 2005, but certainly didn’t become anything of a perennial contender. Make no mistake, UCF hasn’t been a bad program, aside from their early days in the AAC, but they haven’t played at a Tournament-level either.
Their location in Orlando is certainly attractive and head coach Johnny Dawkins has proven to be a talented recruiter over the years, but you won’t get a Tacko Fall and an Aubrey Dawkins to fall into your lap on a regular basis. If the Knights haven’t been winning titles in the AAC, what makes them an attractive team in the Big 12? UCF finished above .500 just once in the last six years in conference play and will face significantly superior competition in the Big 12.
Obviously, anything can happen in the college game and UCF will certainly be a better place for recruits in the Big 12 compared to the AAC. That being said there’s plenty of reason to wonder how competitive the Knights will be in their new league. It’s a similar vibe that TCU had when they joined the Big 12 over a decade ago. The Horned Frogs figured it out in recent years; can UCF do the same down the line?
15. Utah
Younger or more recent college basketball fans probably don’t know or remember that Utah actually played in the national championship game in 1998. Rick Majerus built a fantastic program with the Utes, though this program certainly hasn’t been the same since he departed nearly two decades ago.
When Utah joined the Pac-12 in 2011, they proceeded to have one of the worst seasons a power conference program has had in recent memory, but that wasn’t the end. Three years later, new head coach Larry Krystkowiak led the Utes to the Sweet Sixteen and to a 2nd place finish in the Pac-12. Unfortunately, Utah hasn’t sniffed the Big Dance since 2016 and their conference hasn’t exactly been a murderer’s row in recent years.
One positive aspect for the Utes is that third-year head coach Craig Smith is a proven winner at both South Dakota and Utah State and does have the program trending in a positive direction. Their location in Salt Lake City might be attractive to some recruits and there’s certainly potential here. After all, this program was a juggernaut nearly three decades ago.
On the other hand, Utah hasn’t finished above .500 in conference play in four years, and that’s against a Pac-12 that rated significantly lower than the Big 12 in every metric. The Utes are by no means a bad program even today, and they certainly found their footing in the Pac-12 after a few seasons. At this point, it’s hard to see them finding an even stronger footing in a tougher Big 12, at least not in the first few seasons.
14. BYU
BYU has taken 30 trips to the NCAA Tournament during their proud history, but ancient history isn’t exactly what we’re thinking about today. The Cougars were a fantastic part of the Mountain West for over a decade before transitioning to the WCC back in 2011. Across the next 12 years, they were a constant second fiddle to Gonzaga, and sometimes even a third fiddle depending on Saint Mary’s.
There’s no shame in losing games to an elite program like Gonzaga, but if BYU can’t handle the Bulldogs, can we expect them to have regular success on the road (or at home) against programs like Baylor or Kansas? Even more disappointing, BYU actually finished below .500 in conference play last season, though this was the first time they’d done that since 2005.
This BYU program has appeared just once in the NCAA Tournament in the last eight years, settling for NIT bids and other disappointments along the way. Head coach Mark Pope had a down year last season but enters his fifth season as head coach of this program with higher hopes on the horizon. However, he’s now significantly overmatched by some of the elite head coaches in the Big 12.
This upcoming season will tell us a lot about the Cougars, but we’re not just thinking about the immediate future. Due to their LDS tradition, BYU is always going to have a slightly tougher time recruiting than the average school, though they haven’t let that stop them in the past from being a successful program. Can they grow into a contender in a significantly tougher Big 12?
13. Arizona State
In recent years, Arizona State pulled a pair of incredible upset wins over Kansas, but what does that mean when they join the Jayhawks’ conference? The real story with the Sun Devils has been one of relative disappointment. Bobby Hurley’s program has brought in some talented recruits and had some impressive performances, but Arizona State regularly disappoints or fails to live up to expectations.
Since 2000, Arizona State has made just six trips to the Big Dance and have settled for a 10-seed or lower in five of those appearances. They haven’t advanced past the second round and 2009 was the only season the Sun Devils ended the year in the AP Top 25. More recently, Arizona State finished under .500 in two straight seasons before bouncing back with a 23-win campaign this past year.
Hurley just watched his brother cut down the nets at UConn, but does anyone honestly believe that Arizona State is close to matching that feat? The Sun Devils have a ways to go as a program in the years ahead after spending much of the last decade as a mediocre Pac-12 program. Sure, life in Tempe is great and Hurley is a fantastic recruiter, but will the results come?
In the eight years since Hurley became head coach, Arizona State has finished below .500 four times and hit the 20-win mark in the other four. Replacing Cal, Stanford, and Washington State with the likes of Baylor, Houston, and Kansas will certainly lead to more seasons like the former than the latter. There’s certainly potential at Arizona State, but it’s hard to look at this program and imagine them becoming a power in a new-look Big 12.
12. Colorado
While the Buffaloes have been a quietly solid program in recent years, there’s no Deion Sanders magic for the basketball program. His impact may have single-handedly gotten Colorado back into the Big 12, but it’s not going to rub off on basketball. Tad Boyle was actually already the Buffaloes head coach when they departed the Big 12 for the Pac-12 in 2011, but a lot of things have changed since then.
First off, the Buffaloes have been solid in recent years, making five trips to the NCAA Tournament in their decade-plus in the Pac-12, including in their first three seasons. Unfortunately, they’ve had just one trip to the Big Dance in the last seven years even though they’ve usually been a 20-win program in this conference.
Things are certainly different, but Colorado actually finished below .500 in five of their final seven seasons in the Big 12. We’re talking about the late 2000’s here, so these seasons certainly aren’t relevant, but this history might just repeat itself. Boyle has this program in a much better direction than back then, but let’s not forget the outside factors.
Colorado has made little headway in recent years playing in the Pac-12 while the Big 12 has been a significantly better league. With better regular opponents, it’s certainly possible that the Buffaloes could’ve earned an additional trip or two to the Big Dance, but it’s going to be a tough transition back to this league. Will there be an uptick in recruiting in Boulder in their new league?
11. Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State won a pair of national titles in the 1940’s and remained a basketball power for over a decade. The Cowboys were in great shape in the 90’s under Eddie Sutton and made a Final Four as recently as 2004, but where do they factor into this new-look league?
Three years ago, top-recruit Cade Cunningham helped put Oklahoma State back on the map with a terrific season, leading the Cowboys to a 4-seed in the 2021 NCAA Tournament and their first victory in over a decade. However, that remains current coach Mike Boynton’s only trip to the Big Dance since taking over the program in 2017.
That was also the Cowboys’ only finish above .500 in conference play during Boynton’s tenure, and you just have to wonder if things will get better with future changes in the league. They lose rival Oklahoma, but gain significant challenges with programs like Arizona and Houston entering the league. The Cowboys may no longer be fighting any in-state rivals for Big 12 recruits, but the recent history doesn’t exactly have you excited.
There’s history here for Oklahoma State and certainly a path to success, but if you need the #1 recruit in the nation in order to even make the Dance, then there’s other problems. Stillwater has hosted elite basketball in the past and might do so again in the future, but Boynton’s regime has had ups and downs and we don’t exactly foresee Oklahoma State having consistent elite play, though there’s no reason to count this program out as a potential NCAA Tournament contender in the years ahead.
10. Iowa State
After finishing just 2-22 back in 2021, Iowa State brought him former assistant T. J. Otzelberger and has been a much improved program these last two seasons. The Cyclones have actually been in nine of the last eleven NCAA Tournaments and are a pretty solid program, including a trip to the Sweet Sixteen in 2022 in Otzelberger’s first season as head coach.
Iowa State has showed that they belong in this league in recent years, but it’s not an easy task for anyone. In actuality, the Cyclones haven’t finished above .500 in conference play in seven years, despite making three trips to the Big Dance in that stretch. There’s no mistaking that Otzelberger and his predecessors have had success with this program, but consistency has been an issue.
Discounting that atrocious season, the Cyclones have been in decent shape in the Big 12, but how does that change with new members and a few departures? Iowa State has won enough of these big-time matchups to get into the national spotlight and that’s exactly what we expect Otzelberger to continue to do in the years ahead. He’s brought talented basketball players to Ames, both as head coach and assistant coach, and should continue that trend.
Compared to some of the programs ranked below them today, Iowa State has had that consistency in making the Big Dance, but there hasn’t really been a season in recent memory where we could call Iowa State elite. They can absolutely beat teams like Arizona and Kansas, but can they beat them enough to take home a conference crown? That’s a different story.
9. West Virginia
Currently led by interim head coach Josh Eilert, West Virginia is certainly in a period of flux at the moment. The resignation of longtime head coach Bob Huggins was a recent black eye for a program that’s had ups and downs in recent seasons but has largely been a successful team since joining the Big 12 just eleven years ago.
West Virginia had some fantastic years in the Big East, including the Final Four in 2010, and appeared in three Sweet Sixteens in their first six years as members of the Big 12. The last half decade has been less kind to this program and has included a pair of finishes under .500 and a pair of trips to the NCAA Tournament. West Virginia danced this past year despite finishing just 7-11 in conference play, though of course things will look very different in the years ahead.
We don’t know the direction this program will go, whether they give Eilert the full-time job or high a more prominent coach in the months ahead. We do know that West Virginia has leaned heavily on the Transfer Portal and even after Huggins’ dismissal remains an attractive place for recruits and transfers to land, even if the results haven’t always been there in recent years.
The very fabric of the Big 12 has been changing and it’s clear that the same holds true in West Virginia. This is a program with seven trips to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament in the last two decades, and one that didn’t back down from a strong Big 12 in their early years in the league. There will certainly be some growing pains in the years ahead, but we can expect West Virginia as near-regular contenders again.
8. Cincinnati
After winning a pair of national championships in the 1960’s, Cincinnati finally became a perennial Tournament team after hiring Bob Huggins way back in 1989. The Bearcats appeared in fourteen consecutive NCAA Tournaments before falling off after Huggins’ departure. They’d become a perennial contender again in the 2010’s under Mick Cronin, making nine straight trips to the Big Dance.
But enough of this history lesson; what do we really know about the current state of this program? Things haven’t been great after Cronin left for UCLA in 2019, but there’s hope on the horizon. John Brannen’s two-year stint was atrocious but Wes Miller has started to turn things around in his first two seasons leading the program, including a 23-win campaign this past year.
We don’t know how competitive Cincinnati will be long-term in the new-look Big 12, but this was a great program at times in Conference USA, the Big East, and the AAC, and certainly has the potential to match that in another new conference. Miller is an inspiring young head coach who did wonders at UNC Greensboro and has Cincinnati trending in a great direction for the future.
On the other hand, that run of Tournament appearances is nearly half a decade ago. Cincinnati remains a solid place for basketball and may just have a bright future ahead, but it’s way too early to call Miller a successful coach for the Bearcats. Four years of missing out on postseason glory in the AAC doesn’t exactly inspire confidence for the Big 12, though we’ll find out a lot about this team this season.
7. TCU
When TCU joined the Big 12 in 2012 it was clearly a football move. It paid off, as the Horned Frogs played in the CFP National Championship game this past January, but it was a bit of a head scratcher on the basketball side. In fact, the Horned Frogs were just 8-64 in conference play in their first four seasons in the Big 12.
Hiring alum Jamie Dixon changed things for this program and he’s a major reason for both their success and bright future. Dixon has recruited better and built success at TCU. The Horned Frogs were already in the NCAA Tournament in his second season, making their first trip to the Big Dance in thirty years. They’ve also been selected for each of the last two Tournaments, with this most recent season being their first to end the season in the AP Top 25 since 1998 when they were in the WAC.
It’s more than just bringing great recruits and transfers to Fort Worth, Dixon understands this program and he’s almost entirely the reason they have this bright future. He was a major winner as head coach at Pittsburgh and has had comparable success at his alma mater. The only issue is that TCU has yet to finish above .500 in conference play, winning a decent amount of Big 12 games but never exactly establishing themselves as a potential champion.
The Big 12 is a deeper league than it was a few years ago, but it’s also got several programs just like TCU in it. Based on their recent results, Dixon and the Horned Frogs provide a more attractive landing spot than programs like Utah or BYU. The biggest question here is how long this success can continue in a future after Dixon’s departure from the program.
6. Texas Tech
Following the Red Raiders in recent years has been a wild ride, there’s no question about that. This program didn’t have significant basketball history before Chris Beard took them to an Elite Eight in 2018 and a trip to the national championship game the following year. Beard then bailed for Texas two seasons later and successor Mark Adams had all kinds of problems of his own.
Since 2000, Texas Tech hired Bob Knight, Billy Gillispie, and Tubby Smith, but recently hired Grant McCasland might outshine all of them in Lubbock. He had a masterful stretch leading North Texas and inherits a Red Raiders program in much better shape than some of those other head coaches. Prior to a rough season last year, Texas Tech had made the last four NCAA Tournaments and has the pieces to get back there on a regular basis.
Sure, Beard’s impact is the reason that Texas Tech got onto the map, but McCasland has every possible tool to keep them there, especially as rival Texas departs the conference. Texas Tech finished Top 3 in the Big 12 in three of the last six seasons and their location in Texas makes them an attractive landing spot for players in the coming years. Throw in McCasland’s experience in developing players and you could have some great years ahead in Lubbock.
We’ll keep things realistic, because there’s every chance Texas Tech could fall to the wayside in this new-look Big 12. This program was horrid in the early 2010’s before Beard showed up and a return to that level of play is always possible. Texas Tech is banking on McCasland’s recent success and we’re agreeing with them here. Texas Tech should be in fine shape in the years to come and may have made the best head coaching hire of the offseason.
5. Kansas State
Had this article been written twelve months ago, Kansas State would not be this high up, but a year can make a lot of difference. Former head coach Bruce Weber had a decade leading the Wildcats, including a surprise Elite Eight run in 2018, but things didn’t end well for the program. Kansas State finished under .500 in each of Weber’s final three seasons before letting him go in 2022.
In his first season as head coach, Jerome Tang led the Wildcats to a 26-win season that included a trip to the Elite Eight, having the best season of any first-year head coach last year. Kansas State was ranked in the AP Top 5 for the first time in over a decade and was actually a top-level competitor in a very strong Big 12.
Tang shows no signs of letting up, bringing impressive talent to Manhattan for his second season leading the Wildcats. There’s certainly no reason to believe that Kansas State is going to make the Elite Eight every year, but their success and his leadership were no fluke. We’ll need to see it for more than one season, but Kansas State is a program with remarkable history and pride and they were looking more like themselves all season long.
Looking ahead, we’ll find out a lot about Tang, especially as Kansas State adjusts to these new conference rivals. Including his time at Baylor, Tang has been in this league for more than two decades, but the league is changing before our eyes. Will he continue to be a successful recruiter and leader in the years ahead or was this first season as a flash of the pan success due to breakout years by Markquis Nowell and others?
4. Arizona
Arizona has spent most of the last four decades as an NCAA Tournament contender and a very solid program, though all of that time came in the Pac-12. Former head coach Lute Olson won a national championship in 1997, but the program hasn’t sniffed the Final Four since 2001 despite being in great position on a regular basis. That was then, and this is now.
Current head coach Tommy Lloyd has already had a fantastic impact on the Wildcats in his first two seasons, leading them to 61 wins and a pair of Tournament bids, earning a 1-seed in 2022 and a 2-seed last season. While the Wildcats were upset in the Big Dance both times, Lloyd led Arizona to a pair of Pac-12 Tournament titles and reestablished the program as a national contender after a few mediocre seasons.
That’s exactly what the Big 12 is getting from their raid of the Pac-12’s collapse: a national contender. This isn’t even just about Lloyd, who has already proven to be extremely fantastic with the program. Arizona isn’t a Blue Blood program but would certainly fall into the next level of programs with long-term success in basketball. It’s a program that’s been dominant at times in the Pac-12 and has won a fair number of games against the Big 12’s members both new and old.
The hesitation is of course that lack of success in the Big Dance in recent years. After all, Lloyd’s squad was upset by 15-seed Princeton just six months ago. Transitioning to a new conference is never easy, and it’ll be interesting to see how Arizona deals with a much tougher conference schedule. It’s not as drastic a jump as a program like BYU or Cincinnati will endure, but the Wildcats (who are 32-8 in the Pac-12 under Lloyd) won’t be winning that many games in Big 12 play.
3. Houston
Former head coach Guy Lewis led the Cougars to five Final Fours in the 70’s and 80’s, but Houston was a largely dormant program after that. After losing the national title game to Georgetown in 1984, the Cougars would appear in just four NCAA Tournaments over the next thirty seasons, though something important would happen in 2014 that changed their trajectory.
Kelvin Sampson was brought into the program that year and has been a savior for a program that largely drowned in irrelevancy in Conference USA and in their early years in the AAC. Sampson has a pair of 20-win seasons early in his tenure before the massive turnaround and has now led the Cougars into five consecutive NCAA Tournaments. Most importantly, he took Houston to the Final Four in 2021.
The Cougars spent the last half-decade as unquestionably the top program in the AAC, even spending some time at #1 in the AP Top 25 this year. They’ve advanced to at least the Sweet Sixteen in each of their last four trips to the Big Dance, and have proven themselves against national powers along the way. Still, they’re now members of a significantly tougher Big 12; how will that change things for the Cougars?
First, this program should remain elite as long as Sampson is the leader. Second, there will certainly be a transition and they likely won’t have the same kinds of win totals in conference play, but Houston is a championship-contender from day one. It’s amazing the kind of impact Sampson has already had in less than a decade with this school, but can he actually finish the job and bring home a title to the city of Houston?
2. Baylor
Twenty years ago, there was no life in the Baylor basketball program, with their massive scandal nearly ending the program altogether. Before that time, the Bears had mad just four trips to the NCAA Tournament and weren’t exactly having any success in the Big 12. Then, the program turned towards Scott Drew and things slowly began to turn around.
Baylor basketball didn’t heal overnight, but Drew led this program to Elite Eights in 2010 and 2012 and already had people believing. Clearly, Baylor’s national championship in 2021 was the ultimate breakthrough. Nowadays for the Bears, it’s not just about being a winning program; they’re establishing themselves as one of the nation’s best.
Drew has led Baylor on 11 trips to the Big Dance, nearly quadrupling the program’s total, including five trips to the second weekend. The Bears have finished Top 3 in the Big 12 in each of the last four seasons and have regularly contended both in the league and against the other teams in the nation. Not every year has been fantastic, but Baylor has been ranked for much of the last four seasons and show no signs of stopping under Drew’s leadership.
Could the program take a step back if Drew takes a different job? He certainly seems happy in Waco and continues to recruit and land transfers at a high level. This conference has come down to Baylor and Kansas in recent years, but does this success continue with so much transition in the league? Honestly, it would probably be more relevant to find a reason against Baylor’s continued success, because they’ve certainly proven they’re a program that’s here to stay in the long-term.
1. Kansas
Blue Blood Kansas won the national title just eighteen months ago and have appeared in every NCAA Tournament since 1990. There’s no questioning Bill Self’s acumen as a head coach, as he’s established himself perhaps as the greatest active head coach in this sport. Kansas has earned a Top 4 seed in the Big Dance for each of their last 22 trips and are regularly considered one of the top contenders in the nation.
Self lands 5-star recruits and high-profile transfers. Kansas may lose a game or two unexpectedly each seasons, but which program doesn’t have bumps in the road? The Jayhawks have won nearly every Big 12 regular season title since Self was hired in 2003 and a few changes in the league’s makeup isn’t going to affect this program at all.
Replacing Oklahoma and Texas with Arizona and Houston will create an interesting new challenge for Kansas, but outside of that this league has become somewhat watered down for the likes of Kansas. For the Jayhawks, there might be less regular challenge on that conference schedule and you’d expect even more success in the years to come from the Jayhawks.
Things are not changing in Lawrence anytime soon. Kansas is the Big 12’s premier basketball program until someone proves otherwise. Even after Baylor won the national title (and Houston made that same Final Four), Kansas responded with a title of their own a year later. One of the nation’s elite programs will continue to churn out elite talent, there simply is no question about it.