Not only is change on the horizon in college sports, but it’s already affecting athletics in many notable ways. Sure the new NIL rules have been a net positive for the average college athlete and there’s as much attention and focus on the sport as there ever has been, but conference realignment fueled by TV executive deals is already affecting the sport.
Though they didn’t make the first move, the Big Ten played an enormous early role in this current stage of realignment. Last year’s announced additions of UCLA and USC served to increase the footprint of the Big Ten, but at what a cost? On its own, this move would have nabbed two of twelve teams from the Pac-12, the premier west coast league, but it’s done much more than that in the end.
In recent weeks, most of the other Pac-12 teams have announced their departures, with the Big Ten actually adding two members from the Pacific Northwest in Oregon and Washington. We could spend hours debating the pros and cons of these moves for these schools, conferences, and their student athletes, but our specific focus is on what this means for Big Ten Basketball.
One of the oldest and most recognizable conferences in the nation, the Big Ten has long since swelled past that “Ten” in its name, and the addition of these four schools will give the league 18 members. Those four former Pac-12 schools join in 2024, joining fourteen athletic programs mostly located in the Midwest. Frankly, the addition of these west coast teams is ludicrous from a geography standpoint but will have quite an impact on basketball.
We’re not taking about the oddity of these moves; we’re instead forecasting this league with current and future members all together. We’ll be looking closely at the current state of these eighteen programs and ranking them from top to bottom. This isn’t a current ranking or even a look-ahead to 2024, but how these programs stand based on long-term factors for the future.
18. Northwestern
Without question, this past season was a very happy surprise at Northwestern. Chris Collins led the Wildcats to the NCAA Tournament after shockingly finishing 2nd in Big Ten play. Northwestern returns some of that talent this upcoming season and really did surprise a lot of people last year, but we’re not exactly talking an elite team or anywhere near an elite program.
The fact of the matter is that this was just the second time that Northwestern had ever been selected for the NCAA Tournament. That first ever appearance came six years earlier when Collins did the unthinkable by leading the Wildcats not just to the Big Dance but to a first round win over Vanderbilt. In between, Northwestern had some really rough seasons, finishing under .500 in each of those five years.
The bottom line is that Northwestern is not exactly an athletic power and is probably setup to be the worst athletics program in the future Big Ten. We’re not even punishing them for the current scandal with the football program; this basketball team just does not have a history of success. Not only does Northwestern regularly finish near the bottom in the conference standings, but you have to remember it took them nearly 80 years to even make a single NCAA Tournament.
Clearly this isn’t some dead program; Collins just led them to the Big Dance and has brought talented and intriguing players to Evanston. Their location right near a recruiting hotbed in Chicago means there’s always great potential. Realistically, we don’t expect Northwestern to suddenly take off as a program, especially with the inconsistency the program has had even under Collins.
17. Nebraska
While their football program is certainly in rough shape at the current time, there’s no question that Nebraska is not a basketball school. The Cornhuskers haven’t finished over .500 in the four years that former Chicago Bulls head coach Fred Hoiberg has helmed the program and their time in the postseason has been largely fleeting.
The Cornhuskers have made just seven trips to the Big Dance in their history and are the only power conference program that has never won an NCAA Tournament game. Worse yet, a bulk of those appearances came in the early 90’s and they’ve only made a single appearance in the NCAA Tournament since the turn of the century. There just isn’t a history of success at any level for this basketball program.
Since Nebraska joined the Big Ten in 2011, it hasn’t all been bad news. They made their most recent trip to the Big Dance back in 2014 and have had other moments of spotlight. They’ve won a few big games over their conference rivals and were even ranked a couple different times over the last decade, but if that’s worth celebrating then what level is this program really at?
Hoiberg hasn’t figured out how to win in four seasons; is there hope for anyone at this program? If we’re being realistic, nobody expects Nebraska to wake one day and become a basketball power, especially as this league gets even stronger with these new additions. Even though they did just finish 9-11 in conference play, their 3rd best mark since joining the conference, it’s hard to be excited about Big Ten basketball in Lincoln.
16. Minnesota
After vacating a Final Four run in 1997, the Golden Gophers made a series of high-profile head coaching moves that had varying levels of success. Dan Monson, Tubby Smith, and Richard Pitino weren’t great during their tenures, but they all made the Big Dance and had highlight moments in Minneapolis. The same has not yet happened for current coach Ben Johnson.
In his first two seasons, the Golden Gophers have won just 22 games and finished in the cellar in the Big Ten. They are only four years removed from a 22-win season and a trip to the NCAA Tournament, but the current program is almost unrecognizable, winning just a pair of Big Ten games and flailing to one of their worst seasons in recent memory at just 9-22.
Setting aside questions at the top of the program, things aren’t quite as dire as they seem for the Golden Gophers. We previously mentioned the successes (albeit fleeting) that Minnesota has had in recent years. This is a program that can make the Big Dance every few years and can pull a few upsets against their conference’s comrades. The additions of those west coast teams won’t do anything to stop that.
Year three will tell us a lot about Johnson’s qualifications to lead this program, and if he’s not the guy then Minnesota can certainly bounce back with a new hire. They’ve proven before that the right leader can be somewhat successful. Nobody is looking at Minnesota and expecting regular Tournament appearances or deep runs in the Big Dance, but it’s certainly a program with decent enough potential to not be the worst in the Big Ten.
15. Penn State
While recent actions are certainly taken into account, this article is looking at the future more than the immediate past. That’s unfortunately for Penn State, because the Nittany Lions are coming off one of their finest seasons in a long time. Second-year head coach Micah Shrewsberry recruited All-American Jalen Pickett and led the Nittany Lions to a fantastic ending to the season, including an opening round victory in the NCAA Tournament.
That 23-win season was just the tenth trip to the Big Dance in Penn State’s history and their first appearance in 2011. Unfortunately, both Shrewsberry and Pickett are gone, as are a few other talented pieces both from the roster and the coaching staff from last season. With the current state of the Transfer Portal, it’s even harder to build sustained success in college basketball, especially at a program like Penn State.
The Nittany Lions are not known for sustained success and are much more regularly found in the NIT or outside the postseason altogether. This program has actually fared a lot better than you might think; they very rarely bottom out and usually scrape together a number of wins in conference play, but the Big Ten is getting even harder with teams like UCLA dotting their schedule in the future.
New head coach Mike Rhoades has been a winner at VCU and certainly has the coaching talent to win games at Penn State, but is that enough? It feels in many ways like Penn State caught lightning in a bottle with Pickett; they simply don’t get players that talented in University Park on a regular basis, even in the Big Ten. There’s no question that the program is in decent shape, winning at least 21 games in three of the last six seasons, but can that continue on a regular basis?
14. Washington
In a perfect world, Washington would be staying in the Pac-12 and be competing for league titles for years to come. However, neither of these things is true now or in recent years in Seattle. While the Huskies are certainly elated to have their future spot in the Big Ten, adding their basketball program into this new league isn’t exactly scaring any of the current members.
Back in the early 2000’s, Washington was making more regular appearances to the NCAA Tournament under Lorenzo Romar, but the program has come very inconsistent since the start of the 2010’s. Romar was replaced by longtime Syracuse assistant Mike Hopkins in 2017 after failing to win games with a future lottery pick on the roster. Suffice to say, Hopkins hasn’t exactly been getting the job done either.
In his second season, Washington won 27 games, claimed the Pac-12 regular season title, and knocked out Utah State to advance to the second round of the 2019 NCAA Tournament. Since then, there’s been nothing happening for the Huskies, who even finished dead last in the Pac-12 in the following season. The Huskies are right there in Seattle and have had success in their recent history, but really have struggled over the last half decade.
Consider that Washington is just 28-50 in conference play since that regular season title in 2019. Now consider what that record might have looked like had they been playing a Big Ten schedule, a league that’s been significantly better as a whole than the Pac-12 for a long time. There’s absolutely the opportunity for Washington grow and regain its standing as a solid basketball program, but throwing this school into the Big Ten in its current shape could be ugly.
13. Rutgers
Not much was happening for Rutgers after a trip to the Final Four way back in 1976. They had been a punching bad for much of their nearly two decades in the Big East and were off to the same type of start in the Big Ten. Everything changed when Steve Pikiell was hired and the Scarlet Knights in resoundingly better shape.
Pikiell was hired in 2016 and needed a few seasons to turn this program around, but unlike half a dozen coaches before him, he actually has accomplished his mission. The Scarlet Knights have been a sound basketball program the last four years. They likely would have made the NCAA Tournament before the pandemic canceled it in 2020 before ending a 30-year drought the following season. Rutgers has been at or above .500 in conference play in each of these four seasons and had a slew of very talented players on the roster.
Frankly, Rutgers might have been dead last on this list if not for Pikiell’s efforts in recent years. There was nothing going for Rutgers even five years ago, as the Scarlet Knights hadn’t won more than six conference games in a 13-year period. Now, they’re the easternmost members of one of the nation’s power conferences and have proven that they belong.
Obviously, we have to dial back on the expectations for Rutgers. This program has proven its consistency, even though their bubble was popped this past March, but we can’t forget their recent lack of success. Can Rutgers be a consistent winner when Pikiell’s tenure comes to an end? How do they compare with new programs like UCLA and USC located thousands of miles away?
12. Iowa
The Big Ten is a great basketball conference but there’s only so much success in the league. Only one team can win each game after all, though Iowa has done a great job of doing that under Fran McCaffery for the last thirteen years. Iowa only recently had a national player of the year in Luka Garza on campus and have continued to bring talented names to Iowa City.
The Hawkeyes have appeared in the last four NCAA Tournaments and in seven of the last nine. 20-win seasons have been a regular occurrence for the Hawkeyes, though deep runs in the Big Dance have not been an occurrence at all. Sure, there’s success deep in their history, but McCaffery hasn’t yet made a Sweet Sixteen in his 13 years.
You can count on Iowa to be a decent contender in this league, having finished at or above .500 in conference play in ten of the last eleven seasons. They also have a knack for finding and developing talented players close to home, but is it enough? Iowa isn’t going to find a Garza or Keegan Murray every season and they still haven’t made any headway to prove themselves as an elite program.
It’s also worth considering that this program was in pretty rough shape when McCaffery was hired, and as we’ve seen at other Big Ten schools the wrong hire could really cost you in a league like this. McCaffery isn’t going anywhere and Iowa should remain a consistent program, but will we soon see that one special team that can actually make a dent in the Big Dance?
11. Oregon
A long, long time ago, Oregon won the very first NCAA Tournament, but few people alive certainly remember that game. We’re more than eight decades into the future and Oregon hasn’t exactly been a pushover in recent years either. They’ve certainly been one of the Pac-12 very best programs across the last decade, though it hasn’t been all good for Dana Altman’s program either.
The Ducks were a Final Four team in 2017, but have appeared just twice in the Big Dance since then. They’ve won at least 20 games in all thirteen of Altman’s seasons as head coach, but have struggled with consistency and failed to live up to expectations in recent years. Oregon began the year as a ranked squad the last two seasons but failed to make the Big Dance, dawdling in a very mediocre Pac-12.
Let’s take a step back, because things are about to very different for Oregon in the Big Ten. This is a program that consistently wins and competes for Pac-12 titles, but their new league is a different animal. Sure, this program has a high pedigree and could compete with programs like Indiana and Michigan and the others on a nightly basis, but if they couldn’t even make the Big Dance in a weak Pac-12, who says they can be strong in the Big Ten?
We’re six years removed from that Final Four and Altman’s program is definitely losing some of their shine. A new challenge could be what they need to reinvigorate the program, but it could certainly have the opposite effect. Replacing teams like Colorado, Utah, and Washington State with Illinois, Michigan State, and Purdue is certainly a significant challenge. Recent history says Oregon should win plenty of games, but are these recent issues the result of the new age of college basketball or just bad luck?
10. Wisconsin
Few people seem to understand the lack of basketball success across Wisconsin’s entire history. The Badgers did win the national championship back in 1941 and were in the Big Dance again a few seasons later, but after that were not in the NCAA Tournament again until 1994. Former coaches Dick Bennett and Bo Ryan rejuvenated this program with trips to the Final Four while current coach Greg Gard has done his best to maintain that momentum in Madison.
The Badgers had made 18 straight trips to the Big Dance before missing after a bad season in 2018. Gard hasn’t quite coached to the level of his predecessor and longtime mentor, but Wisconsin has still been a great competitor in the Big Ten. Wisconsin is just two seasons removed from a regular season title, though Wisconsin really struggled last year and missed the Tournament again.
Let’s not get bogged down by the recent disappointments, this school was in the national title game in 2015 and has made a pair of Sweet Sixteens since Gard was promoted to head coach. This past season was just the second time Wisconsin finished below .500 in conference play in the last 25 years. The Badgers have proven their consistency and the names on the roster have proven it.
Adding a few west coast programs will add intrigue to the league, but Wisconsin should still be a fierce competitor for Big Ten superiority. That being said, the program is certainly not operating at the same level it was under Bo Ryan and you have to wonder if new teams like Oregon or USC will start to cut in on some of Wisconsin’s spotlight. The Badgers have ever opportunity to continue to be a regular competitor for postseason success, but are now six years removed from a trip beyond the Tourney’s opening weekend.
9. Ohio State
After making trips to the Final Four in 2007 and 2012, Thad Matta stepped away briefly from basketball in 2017 and Chris Holtmann has led the Buckeyes ever since. While Ohio State has maintained a standing as one of the better programs in the Big Ten, there’s been a postseason problem under Holtmann. The Buckeyes haven’t advanced beyond the second round since he took over the program, not to mention the more recent issues.
Ohio State is coming off a 16-19 season, one in which they won just 5 games in conference play. If we went back 15 years, you could certainly call this one of the very best Big Ten programs, but that same level of success just hasn’t happened in recent years. The Buckeyes have been nationally ranked in the Top 5 multiple times in recent years, but they always seem to lack that consistency to stay up there.
Make no mistake, Ohio State is a great basketball program with a high ceiling, but we just haven’t seen that ceiling yet during Holtmann’s tenure. Ohio State isn’t going to be directly affected by these new additions to the Big Ten, but you can bet that a few of those schools (from Los Angeles) are sitting in a better position than today’s Buckeyes.
Does the recent inconsistency have anything to do with the coaching or recruiting taking a step back? While it’s possible, Ohio State hasn’t taken a step back with their talent on the court and you should expect that bad years like last season will not be regular occurrences. The most important question is if making a run towards a title will ever be a regular occurrence under this current regime.
8. USC
It’s never easy to transition into a new conference, even if you’re one of the best teams in the league from the start. USC has been in phenomenal shape in recent years, and continues to achieve basketball success even now that they’ve run out of Mobley brothers.
Andy Enfield was hired back in 2013 and has made five trips to the NCAA Tournament, including each of the last three. USC certainly benefits from a weak Pac-12, but have gone 43-17 in league play since the start of the pandemic and advanced all the way to the Elite Eight back in 2021. There’s been a lot of good in recent years and even more talented recruits are heading to Los Angeles.
Much like with the other Pac-12 schools we’ve mentioned, we’ll have to take an initial pause because of the major changes of a new league. Not only are the Trojans replacing the likes of California and Stanford with Indiana and Purdue, they’re also traveling basically across the country for every road game with their new league members. This may not seem important, but the uptick in travel and strength of opponents will be a legitimate concern.
All things aside, USC is in great shape under Enfield’s leadership, with him showing success as a recruiter and basketball coach. The Trojans have quite frankly had a better last three seasons than almost the entire Big Ten, with a few exceptions of course. It’ll be really weird to have USC in the Big Ten, but them finishing regularly in the top half of the league should not be a weird thing to see.
7. Michigan
Michigan won the national championship in 1989 then rode the Fab Five to a pair of Final Four’s a few years later. The Wolverines then disappeared from the national spotlight for over a decade until John Beilein led them to multiple trips to the national title game. Current head coach and Fab Five member Juwan Howard is hoping to bring more success to Michigan and he’s mostly been succeeding to this point.
His Wolverines advanced to the Elite Eight in 2021 and Sweet Sixteen in 2022, though that latter team really underachieved throughout most of that season. Combine that with a 2023 team that missed the Big Dance altogether and we’ve got two sides to the coin in Ann Arbor. Last year’s Michigan squad was loaded with talent but couldn’t even advance to the NCAA Tournament and will be faced with an even tougher conference in the years to come.
First and foremost, we can’t ignore Michigan’s recent deep runs, even before Howard was hired. This Michigan program is not the team from the early 2000’s that couldn’t even make the Big Dance or win the important games in the conference. The Wolverines are expected to beat these other high-level Big Ten foes and make these postseason trips, but the recent disappointments can’t be ignored either.
If Howard keeps recruiting and developing talent at a high level, then we can expect great things from the Wolverines, but it’s hard to rank them among the very best in this conference. Michigan has been great, finishing at or above .500 in conference play for eight straight years, but is that something that can keep up for years to come?
6. Maryland
Gary Williams won a national championship in 2002. Mark Turgeon led this program into the Big Ten in 2014 and had some great season and some underwhelming ones. Kevin Willard greatly exceeded expectations after he was hired last season by the Terrapins and has things looking up in College Park.
Most of Maryland’s success came in the ACC but they’ve been far from a pushover in their almost decade in the Big Ten. The Terrapins made the Big Dance in their first three seasons in the league, though 2016’s trip is their most recent run to the Sweet Sixteen. They’ve had talented teams with potential in recent years, but haven’t had the same level of elite play as in the early 2000’s under Williams.
The first season for Willard ended with 22 wins and renewed hope in College Park after things had gotten pretty stale under Turgeon. Having a great and experienced coach like Willard is a fantastic first step for the Terrapins, but where does it lead them? This program has a ton of potential and a very high ceiling in the years to come, even with distant foes like USC or Oregon trying to steal some of their glory.
Moving forward, Maryland has plenty of potential to stand out in the new-look Big Ten. Willard is a great recruiter and in-game coach and the Terrapins have a history of success. There really isn’t a lot to say here, because we’re leaning on Willard’s potential to make deep runs in the coming years with the talent he brings to Maryland like he did at Seton Hall.
5. Illinois
A disappointment for much of the 2010’s, Illinois has finally turned things around in recent years under Brad Underwood. The Illini made the national title game with a historic season in 2005, but have been full of underachievement and rough play ever since. Things have been significantly better after Underwood’s first few years in Champaign.
Not only has he recruited All-American talent, he led the Illini to Big Ten Basketball titles in two of the last three seasons. Illinois has made three straight trips to the Big Dance, though they were upended, including in the second round as a 1-seed in 2021. While this is clearly disappointing, the fact that the Fighting Illini even got a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament is a major step forward.
That remarkable achievement was their first trip to the Big Dance in eight years and seems to have established the program back in a consistent role. The Illini are 55-25 in the Big Ten over the last four seasons and are trending in a direction to continue that success. Obviously, winning just a pair of Tournament games in three years isn’t ideal, but it’s a start.
Why Illinois is listed ahead of other programs with better recent success falls largely on the program’s history and the pedigree of a coach like Underwood. He has found and built up talent everywhere he’s been and he already did it with names like Kofi Cockburn and Ayo Dosunmu with the Illini. There’s every possibility Illinois could regress closer to the mean, like they did near the end of last season, but we’re riding high on Underwood’s potential to finally breakthrough for their first Sweet Sixteen since 2005.
4. Purdue
Gene Keady was a legendary head coach at Purdue for 25 years and you can certainly argue that Matt Painter has been just as good if not better since succeeding him back in 2005. The Boilermakers don’t have some long streak of success (though they have been in 8 straight NCAA Tournament’s), but they’ve regularly built great teams with talented players.
We’re not spending too much time focusing on recent seasons, though it’s hard to ignore last year’s success with Zach Edey and a 1-seed in the 2023 NCAA Tournament, even if that ended in dreadful and historic upset. Purdue has been ranked #1 in the nation multiple times during the last two seasons and have had a few of the nation’s best players during that time as well.
You could certainly argue that Purdue has been one of the two most consistent programs in the Big Ten since Painter was hired, though there’s just one thing missing. Purdue made the Elite Eight in 2019 and Painter also has five other trips to the Sweet Sixteen, but the program hasn’t appeared in the Final Four in more than four decades.
Does that matter? The three teams above them today have all been consistent Final Four competitors across their histories, but we can’t actually punish the Boilermakers for this. With Edey back next season, Purdue should be one of the top teams in the nation, but what about when he leaves? Does Painter keep hitting on these explosive frontcourt weapons and can Purdue actually make a run at their first title?
3. Indiana
No matter how you slice it, Indiana is one of the elite programs in college basketball history. Fans will always fill Assembly Hall, even doing it when Archie Miller failed to lead the Hoosiers to the Big Dance across a disappointing four-year tenure. Furthermore, things have been looking much better with former NBA head coach Mike Woodson taking control of his alma mater the last few seasons.
There’s an extended history of former NBA players and coaches really struggling at the collegiate level but Woodson is bucking that trend after just two seasons. Not only has he been killing it on the recruiting trail and in development, but the Hoosiers have already made a pair of trips to the Big Dance. They certainly weren’t on the same level as Purdue last year, but they did sweep their bitter rivals after all.
There’s no telling if Woodson can lead this program to their first Final Four since 2002, but he’s already put this program in competitive shape in just two seasons in Bloomington. Indiana’s standing as an elite basketball program gives us reason to be excited for their future, especially if more talent like Trayce Jackson-Davis keeps coming in those doors.
Incredible in the past, great in the present, and primed for the future, Indiana has every reason to be excited and maintain a great footing in Big Ten Basketball, each with UCLA and the other program’s greatly changing the makeup of the conference. We don’t know what Woodson’s ceiling is as a head coach, but it’s impossible to deny that there’s potential for greatness in Bloomington once again in the coming years.
2. UCLA
Not only are they the program with the most national championships in the history of college basketball, UCLA has also been back in elite shape in recent seasons since Mick Cronin’s arrival in 2019. Even though the Bruins’ most recent national title is back in 1995, the program finds a way to be a major competitor seemingly on a regular basis.
We know about the distant past, but the recent past has been pretty brilliant as well. UCLA made a shocking run to the Final Four in 2021 and rode that talent to great finishes these last two seasons. The Bruins made Sweet Sixteen runs the last two seasons while winning 31 games and the Pac-12 regular season title this past season alone.
Cronin has brought elite talent to Los Angeles through freshmen and the Transfer Portal, effectively using all the weapons at his disposal to build UCLA’s success. These last few seasons have certainly been something, though you have to wonder if it would have been different from the Big Ten. This Bruins team was very talented, but likely doesn’t go 18-2 in last season’s Big Ten; but does that really matter?
Among the 18 members of the Big Ten, UCLA has the most impressive history and one of the most impressive runs in recent years. They aren’t going anywhere in regards to the talent or prestige of this program, even while facing a tougher conference slate. UCLA should continue to contend for national excellence in basketball, especially if Cronin continues to hit on these young ball players.
1. Michigan State
When Tom Izzo was hired in 1995, he was succeeded a Hall of Fame coach in Jud Heathcote, who led the Spartans to their first national title in 1979 with Magic Johnson. Fast forward nearly three decades later, and Izzo’s legend is even greater, including his own championship back in 2000. Michigan State still boasts the Big Ten’s most recent national title and have consistently been a national power.
Since Izzo was hired, Michigan State has appeared in eight Final Fours, a number significantly higher than anyone else in this league. Not only is Izzo clearly bringing talented players to East Lansing, but the Spartans are winning the important games, both on the national stage and against their rivals in the Big Ten. His tenure includes a number of conference titles, regular inclusion in the national rankings, and an astounding 25 consecutive trips to the Big Dance.
While the program did advance to the Sweet Sixteen this past postseason, Michigan State has actually taken a slight step back since the start of the pandemic. The Spartans have finished closer to the middle of the pack in the Big Ten and haven’t been higher than a 7-seed in these last three trips to the NCAA Tournament. Is this a sign that momentum is slowing down for Izzo and company?
On the contrary, we can expect this run to continue in East Lansing. A few down years for Michigan State would still be considered incredible success for more than half of this conference. After all, the Spartans are coming off a Sweet Sixteen and bring back an enormous amount of talent for next season. A program that seems to regularly be involved in the national conversation will continue to do so for yars to come.