This upcoming 2023-24 NCAA basketball season will be a make or break season for many coaches. Power 5 programs like Kentucky and Louisville are experiencing lows in their recent history (all time lows for Louisville).
A lot of teams have been hiring new up and coming assistants, and getting rid of their older tenure coaches. In the last few seasons alone we lost Jim Boeheim, Bob Huggins, and Mike Brey. Also they’re also have been a bunch of new hires for top tier schools like Hubert Davis (UNC), Jon Scheyer (Duke), and Kenny Payne (Louisville).
Some of these new hires have worked out extraordinarily like Hubert Davis for UNC. While some have started out disastrous like Kenny Payne for Louisville. While also some coaching legends are starting to slow down. Coaches like Jim Boeheim and Mike Brey knew it was time to retire so they did. This may be the same fate for some of the other older coaches who can’t sustain the same success in this league.
The face of college basketball is changing and more and more new basketball head coaching legends are being made right now. I can see guys like Hubert Davis and Jon Scheyer being at their schools for the next 20 years and having great success there.
These are the coaches that need to win at their respected schools if they want their seat to keep getting hotter. Any 4 of these head coaches could be fired or (be forced to) retire by the end of this coming 2023-24 season. Here is a look at 4 college basketball coaches who need to win in 2023-24.
No. 4: John Calipari, Kentucky Wildcats
Wins Needed: Sweet Sixteen Bid
John Calipari is one the most successful college basketball coaches even since his early days at UMASS. He took over for the Kentucky Wildcats in 2010 and have been to multiple final fours, elite eights, sweet sixteens, and one national championship. However, the Wildcats have not made it out of the first round since 2019 under Calipari.
The Wildcats lost to a 15 seed in the round of 64 in 2022, and lost to Kansas State in the round of 32 in 2023. It’s not to say the Wildcats haven’t had talent either. They had national player of the year Oscar Tshiebwe, and multiple lottery picks in the last few years, so what is holding back Kentucky?
I think John Calipari may be the problem for the Wildcats. He has had several good classes and all he has to show for it is one championship. He should have more than just one in his 14 years at UK with the players he has had. Calipari brings in one of his best draft classes ever in the 2023-24 season. It is the unanimous number 1 class with guys like DJ Wagner and Aaron Bradshaw, and it would be hard to see a future where UK will fail.
Calipari has had regular season success, but his recent postseason success has been extremely underwhelming. If Calipari can’t at least get out of the first weekend of the tourney, I’m not sure he will even want to be at UK in 2024-25. Kentucky always has high expectations because it’s UK basketball and they are one of the historic blue bloods in NCAA Basketball. Fans are starting to get nervy and Calipari can feel it. There were even rumors he might leave for Texas last season, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Calipari leaves the cats next season if he can’t win in the postseason.
No. 3 Leonard Hamilton, Florida State Seminoles
Wins Needed: NCAA Tournament Bid
Leonard Hamilton has been head coach of the Florida State Seminoles since 2002 and has led the Noles to multiple elite eight and sweet sixteen runs. However, since their 2021 sweet sixteen run they haven’t made the NCAA tournament and had an extraordinarily bad 2023 season, where they started 1-9 and finished 9-23. Hamilton has been known as one of the best coaches in the ACC in recent years. His tournament success has been very impressive and FSU’s home record was something that was nationally impressive year in and year out.
This past season showed FSU basketball was in a bad place. FSU had it’s first season with a losing home record since 2005, it’s worst conference record since 2009, and Hamilton’s worst overall record in over 20 years of coaching FSU. Their defense was one of the worst in the ACC last year, which is very odd for a Hamilton led team. His recruiting classes as of late have also been less then stellar, along with his work in the transfer portal.
The bottom line is Hamilton needs to just win more basketball games in 2023-24 if he wants to stay at FSU. Hamilton has been a head coach since 1986 (Oklahoma State), and turned 75 this year. He needs to show that he can change with the times, by being more active in the transfer portal, and getting back on track with league games. If Hamilton can’t get the Seminoles back on track, he may be the next head coach that is forced to retire because he is unable to change with the landscape of college basketball.
No. 2 Jerod Haase, Stanford Cardinals
Wins Needed: NCAA Tournament Bid
Jerod Haase will enter his 8th season coaching the Stanford Cardinals in 2023-24 and it is a do or die year for Haase. Haase has not been outright bad at Stanford and even led them to 11 conference wins in 2018, which was the most since 2008. However, he has never led the Cardinals to the NCAA Tournament and his past 3 seasons have all hovered slight above or below a (.500) record. He was brought back for 2023-24 to coach Stanford, with the thought that he would be successful with the players he has coming back and the good recruiting class he has coming in.
If Haase can’t win enough next season he is most likely out the door at Stanford. Haase hasn’t been extremely bad, but it is hard to say he has been good there either. It’s tough to analyze Haase at Stanford, because he hasn’t outright failed, but hasn’t succeeded very well either. 2023-24 will be the year Haase needs to win regardless.
With Stanford, Cal, and SMU joining the ACC in 2024-25, Stanford will want to enter with the right coach at the helm. Haase could be that guy, but only if he can prove he can win basketball games and get into the big dance in March. If Haase can’t make the tourney it will be hard to see him coaching the Cardinals when they enter the ACC.
No. 1 Kenny Payne, Louisville Cardinals
Wins Needed: NCAA Tournament Bid
Kenny Payne’s first year coaching the Louisville Cardinals was worse than abysmal last season and any wins in year 2 will be seen as a positive. Louisville went 4-28 and it was their worst season in modern history for that program. Payne had never been a head coach before and it showed. Payne was also known for his stellar recruiting, and although his first class at Louisville is good, it is not the great class Cardinal fans were expecting. His 2024 class is also not off to a very good start.
Payne grabbed some transfers and top 100 recruits that will hopefully lead Louisville to more wins next season. However, if Louisville doesn’t make the tournament next year Payne will be in a lot of trouble.
The only way I can see Payne returning to Louisville in 2024-25 is if he wins 20 games and Louisville is one of the first 4 out in the bubble. Louisville is a top ten program in college basketball history, and even if Payne is a hometown guy Louisville won’t stand for mediocrity, especially not 4-win seasons.
If Payne can have Louisville looking good and playing hard but in the end they miss the tournament then it’s a different story. But if Payne misses the tournament with less than 17 wins, it is very hard to see him returning to Louisville in 2024-25.