Which teams are the most vulnerable to first-round upsets this March Madness?

Even as the 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket was being announced, commentators were throwing out comments on who was an easy upset.

Now that fans and foes alike are filling out their brackets, should they heed the warnings about the possibility of top-seeded teams being knocked out in the first round?

People love the idea of a Cinderella story until it lights their bracket on fire so here are the five first-round upsets I would be cautious of as the Big Dance kickoffs.

Five seeds are 116-56 all-time against 12 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. I think Gonzaga is playing a little flat right now and McNeese State is a shockingly impressive squad this season.

McNeese will be looking to prove that they belong in the tournament and will use the underdog seeding to their advantage. 

While this is Gonzaga’s 24th straight appearance in the tournament, it is just McNeese’s third ever. The Bulldogs have also won at least one game in every tournament since 2008.

I think the McNeese Cowboys will defy all odds and take down the Zags.

NC State is coming off of a hot streak in the ACC Tournament and will be looking for more after they defeated the UNC Tar Heels in the conference championship.

In other words, the Wolfpack got a taste of glory and it’s going to make them greedy. 

Along with NC State’s hunger for more, Texas Tech doesn’t have any big men right now. The Raiders’ one seven-footer is out due to injury and they won’t be able to slow down NC State’s Mohamed Diarra and DJ Burns.

I think NC State will easily blow past the Red Raiders on move on to the Round of 32.

The Oregon Ducks have defied all odds this postseason and are making their first appearance in the NCAA Tournament since 2021.

With future Hall of Fame head coach Dana Altman running the team and center N’Faly Dante at the peak of his game, I think the Ducks will handily defeat the Gamecocks.

Alongside Dante is senior Jermaine Couisnard who has experience at the national level to add seniority and experience to the squad. 

While I don’t see Oregon making a shockingly deep run this year, I do believe that they can get past South Carolina.

Clemson has been an inconsistent squad all season long. With a 21-11 overall record, the Tigers easily could have been a lower seed and I think the New Mexico Lobos will topple them.

Six-seeds are 108-64 all-time against 11-seeds in the NCAA tournament. New Mexico’s elite offensive and physical players will simply out-work and out-hustle the Tigers when the two teams meet.

The Tigers simply won’t be able to keep up with the Lobos’ pace and will run out of gas as the 40 minutes progress.

Moral of the story, don’t put Clemson past the Round of 64 on your bracket.

Not only is Nevada playing some of its best basketball that we’ve seen all year, they’re also favored heading into the game against Dayton.

While the Wolves are only favored by a point and a half, I don’t think the Flyers are at their best at this point in the season.

Dayton eked past VCU in the conference tournament before being upset by Duquesne. The Flyers also lost a game they should have easily won against Loyala IL in early March.

With Nevada peaking at just the right time and the Flyers falling to an inconsistent style of play, the Wolves will easily walk away with this win to move on to the next round.