Louisville Cardinals: Is Rick Pitino’s Squad Overrated?
By Jacob Rude
After their second loss in a high-profile match-up this year, the Louisville Cardinals should be questioned as to whether they belong among the elite teams in the nation this year.
Twice this season, the Louisville Cardinals have hosted a top five team with a chance for a big exclamation point on their season. And twice this season, the Cardinals have been embarrassed at home by said top five teams.
Much of the talk over the weekend following the Duke-Louisville game was the masterful game plan from Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski, who deployed a zone defense and made adjustments offensively to get the better of Rick Pitino and, at least for one game, return the Blue Devils to prominence.
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However, on the other side of the court is Pitino and the Cardinals. At the surface, their 15-3 record looks great, but their 3-2 record in the ACC starts to show a more realistic side of this Louisville team. Are they one of the top 25 teams in the country? Most likely. Are they one of the top 10 teams in the country as their position in the AP poll even after their loss to Duke indicates? Unlikely.
To date, Louisville’s best win came against Ohio State in early December by nine points. In their three other games against ranked teams, they’ve lost by eight versus Kentucky, by one at North Carolina, and by 11 versus Duke.
It’s no secret that the Cardinals are not a great offensive team, or really even a good offensive side. The stats about their offense are really scary. They’re 229th in field goal percentage in the country, 319th in three-point percentage, 100th in offensive rating, 235th in true shooting percentage, and 244th in effective field goal percentage.
A quick dip into Pomeroy’s stats basketball ratings start to show us some more telling stats. The adjusted offensive efficiency of the Cardinals ranks them 77th. While they possess an elite defense that ranks 4th in adjusted defensive efficiency, it hasn’t done enough to cover up their flaws offensively.
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Across the board, they’re one of the worst offenses in the nation. Can a team that elite have an offense that bad? In their defense, their defense is as elite as it gets, ranking among the tops in nearly all stats. They’re 12th in opponent field goal percentage, 2nd in opponent offensive rating, 7th in opponent true shooting percentage, and 10th in opponent effective field goal shooting percentage. They rank 6th in steal percentage, 14th in block percentage, and 16th in opponent turnover percentage.
Even if you average them out, the Cardinals are an above average team at best. In their biggest games of the year against ranked teams, the Cardinals have repeatedly put up dud performances. Only the North Carolina game did the Cardinals surpass the 40% field goal percentage mark against a ranked team. No matter how you spin it, this Cardinal offense is bad. Really bad.
Can a team be considered elite with such a putrid offense? It’s hard to make a case for them, and in order for Louisville to take that step to elite level, they’re going to need a much-improved performance from their offense.