Florida just won the National Championship, but that doesn't mean that it's now the offseason. In today's transfer portal landscape, that doesn't come until sometime in May. For now, we have entered Roster Construction season, a whirlwind four to eight weeks that we all watch on our phones, instead of our televisions.
There are hundreds of potential storylines and questions that will pop up between now and Memorial Day, but I paired it down to just ten (and maybe a bonus eleventh).
1. The Double Money Summer
A perfect storm has formed for players to cash in this offseason in a way that they never have before, and may not again. The fifth-year players benefitting from the extra COVID year are all gone, save for a small handful who redshirted at some point. This comes the same year that college sports has a chance to pay players in both the old and new ways, as the schools can continue to pay through completely unregulated NIL up until the House settlement kicks in (likely July 1). Once that happens, they can pivot to paying straight from athletic department revenue.
The rich sit in the best position that they ever will in putting together the upcoming season's roster. A player can be given the same NIL amount that they could have commanded in a previous off-season, while then receiving another check in the hundred of thousands (or even the low millions) during the season. This has lead to a historic rush both into the transfer portal, and away from the NBA draft. Dozens of players who went through the draft process last year, and even a handful of projected second-round picks, are staying in school, knowing that they will certainly get paid above the NBA minimum that almost everyone outside of the top thirty-five picks receives.
2. Slippers Already Shattering
Sure, the NCAA may do an extremely poor job of regulating NIL, and under-the-table payments to players could return, but in the future, there will at least be guardrails to make spending maximization more difficult. When that does come into play, bloated football budgets will help to even the playing field between the power conferences and the best mid-major programs. But the double money summer puts these teams in the toughest position to compete for recruits that they have ever been in. Just look at how slow the portal is moving for teams in the A-10, Mountain West, AAC, and WCC.
This time last year, New Mexico, Boise State, Memphis, VCU, San Deigo State, and St. Mary's had all already compiled NCAA Tournament-caliber rosters. Fast forward to today, and the latter two seem to be the only schools at this level that have even started down the path to an at-large bid. My best-educated guess is that even the second and third tiers of transfers are waiting to see which deep-pocketed schools get desperate over the next few weeks before they start to filter down to other options. It all sets up for a 2026 NCAA Tournament that may again be devoid of upsets before Cinderella's dramatic return to the ball the year after.
3. Did Kansas Forgot Proper Roster Construction?
Ever since the failure to recruit real depth on the 2024 team, Bill Self has hit the transfer portal like an overexcited guy on a dating app, just sending likes to every moderately appealing wing available. Last season, that led to landing four hyped transfers coming in, and all of them failed to make a significant impact for the Jayhawks. This year, Kansas starts with future top three pick Darryn Peterson and just needs to slot in players around him.
But it has already started off oddly. Former Loyola guard Jayden Dawson received all-conference honors as the best player in a truly egalitarian offense that allowed him to lean into what he does best, being a secondary playmaker and shooting open threes. But Kansas hasn't been a good assist team without the now graduated DaJuan Harris at any point in the last decade and don't shoot a lot of threes. The other early addition, 6'7" Tre White from Illinois is a small fit in between Peterson and undersized center Flory Bidunga. Seems like Self is just chucking at the dartboard again.
4. Can Houston Deal With A Larger Reload?
Houston has finished as the nation's second best team per Kenpom a stunning four years in a row, thanks to a steady flow of young players ready to step up everytime a senior leaves. The most remarkable is a progression at lead guard from Marcus Sasser to Jamal Shead to LJ Cryer with no dropoff. But the next man in line, Emmanuel Sharp, doesn't seem to be capable of taking on that responsibility. And Cougar's other returning perimeter starter, Milos Uzan, could be a threat to go pro.
With center J'Wan Roberts also graduating, Kelvin Sampson faces his most daunting rebuild in years. His options are to either put significant trust in all three of the incoming top one hundred ranked freshmen or add multiple transfers in the same off-season for the first time in his career. The Houston staff has already moved quickly to add a Creighton transfer, erratic guard Pop Isaacs, who is a seemingly odd fit with Sampson, and a sign that they may be worried about Uzan heading off to the NBA. Regardless, we may be headed for a down season compared to Houston's normal excellence.
5. Darrion Williams Destination
I can't remember a better transfer ever hitting the market than Texas Tech forward Darrion Williams. The nation's best three level scorer (I stand by this statement), Williams only failed to reach All-American status because he was teammates with the nation's best drive and post-up combo scorer (JT Toppin). If you want to know what Williams can do as the alpha, then go watch all fifteen of his points in the last ten minutes and overtime of the Red Raiders' sixteen-point Sweet Sixteen comeback win over Arkansas.
Williams will fit into any offense that will give him the freedom to frequently attack in isolation, and floor spacing isn't even much of a requirement (he had just about none when Topping and Federico Federico shared the floor). Both Williams, and another elite transfer in Big East Player of the Year RJ Luis Jr from St. John's, would immediately propel any top twenty-five team into a title contender, and in the double money summer, the price tag will likely be exorbitant.
6. Lame Duck Coaches With No Cash
This a new phenomenon that is unlikely to go anywhere, with major boosters withholding NIL contributions if they want the school to move on from a coach on the hot seat. For every coach who gets one more year to prove themselves, the school can either deprive them on roster building funds on the way out the door, or really invest and get them a chance to really prove themselves. Virginia Tech made a big deal of publicly announcing that they were doing the latter for Mike Young, and it seems that many of their ACC rivals (who should host media day atop Mt. Vesuvius as a metaphor for how many coaches are on the hot seat this year) have made their decisions as well.
In the northeast of the conference, Syracuse landed a pair of top fifty recruits, kept their only two impactful players (Donnie Freeman and JJ Starling) and have assembled a transfer class led by All-ACC honorable mention point guard Naithan George from Georgia Tech. Their arch-rivals Pitt meanwhile, have been extremely quiet in the recruiting world, seemingly never being in the mix for big-time transfers. Down on tobacco road, Wake Forest seems to be targeting players perfect for assembling a roster to go 8-10 in conference play, while UNC is clearly investing behind Hubert Davis.
7. UNC Missing One Big Piece
Those very Tar Heels have flipped the script from last offseason, finally getting their center in Arizona transfer Henri Veesar and putting together an extremely deep roster across four positions. It's a mix of young and old, fast and physical, with a bunch of high-ceiling young players, especially if Drake Powell foregoes the NBA draft. But UNC has one glaring hole, a point guard (they have none) who is also a go-to scorer (they have just Seth Trimble to fill that role).
Unfortunately for everyone in Chapel Hill, this is typically the hardest elite player to acquire, and this year even more so. The portal is basically down to two players who can fill that role and elevate North Carolina into the top ten team that they strive to be. Unless you have an extremely high opinion of Veesar's former teammate KJ Lewis or a miracle enters the portal late, it will basically come down to Davis and staff's ability to land Baylor transfer Robert Wright III or Princeton's Xaivian Lee.
8. Who Properly Fills Their Needs?
Everyone loves the team who lands three or four top-tier recruits without much regard for fit (see #9), while ignoring a coach who merely goes into the portal to fill a few roles around a strong returning core. The best at this last off-season was Clemson's Brad Brownell, bringing in defensive studs at point guard and center in Jaeden Zackery (Boston College) and Viktor Lakhin (Cincinnati), a pair of veterans who gave the Tigers five capable shooters at all times, led the defense and let the returning players carry the scoring load.
It's a tough needle to thread, and every year only a small handful of coaches can successfully do so. The best candidate for this year would have been the aforementioned Houston (although the Isaacs addition does not fit this category at all). Duke did a terrific job at snagging three veteran role players last season and will need to do similar again. If I had to make a longshot bet for the MVP of hitting singles in the portal this year (which I will circle back to in May), I'm taking San Diego State.
9. Who Sloppily Stacks Talent?
The opposite of Clemson last season was Indiana, a team that put together a starting lineup with five big names that as far back as May was clearly putting makeup over the glaring weakness of none of the five being able to shoot. It came back to kill the Hoosiers' NCAA Tournament hopes, as reserve Luke Goode was the only player to shoot over 33% from three on the entire team.
These are the teams to watch out for in your pre-season predictions. You're tantalized by the signature players on the depth chart, but fit and chemistry are oh-so-important in a sport of young men. South Carolina is already sprinting down this path, with a few big-name transfers but no reliable rebounding and some big risks of jumping up to SEC competition. Meanwhile, Arkansas is a perfect candidate to add a steady veteran or two to a terrific young roster, but John Calipari is much more of the type to take a huge swing (and perhaps miss).
10. A New Low Major Dynasty?
Last offseason, I put a spotlight on High Point, the small North Carolina school with a rich network of alumni donors who have quickly made the school the richest athletic department in the Big South. That money went to work convincing four starters to stay and bringing in the best transfer class of any low-major school. The result was the program's first ever NCAA Tournament appearance, after which most of the key players have decided to transfer up.
But the right job never lined up for head coach Alan Huss and sixth man Bobby Pettiford stuck around as well. The Panthers have quickly struck in the portal again, with Virginia Tech rotation guard Jaydon Young, Xavier transfer Cam'ron Fletcher and a pair of All-Conference honorees in Rob Martin (OVC First Team) and Scotty Washington (Big West honorable mention). The school is clearly building a sustainable winner and is worth monitoring for years to come.
Bonus: What Can BYU Do?
BYU being flush with NIL money has been the worst-kept secret in college basketball ever since they earned the commitment of the top recruit in the country (AJ Dybantsa) for a reported six to seven-million dollar price tag. He'll be joined by a pair of returning starters for BYU's Sweet Sixteen team, including the Cougars' best players, Richie Saunders and Keba Keita. But the depth seems to be lacking, and for a school that will forever be an awkward cultural fit for some (due to the heavy religious focus and strict prohibition of alcohol and pre-marital activities), we will see if the checkbook can do the talking.