2011 Big 12 Tournament Predictions
By Blake Lovell
We had the Big East tournament get underway yesterday, and since that will be running for…..oh, about the next six months or so, we should probably focus on a few other tournaments for the time-being.
One that gets going tonight is the Big 12 tournament, which is one that is always hard to predict. And that is even more so the case this season, with certain teams fighting for bids to the NCAA tournament, and other teams trying to hold their seed.
So without any further ado, here are my predictions for this year’s tournament:
FIRST ROUND
#8 Nebraska vs. #9 Oklahoma State
The opening game of any conference tournament usually isn’t a thriller. Perhaps it’s playing during the day vs. at night, or maybe both teams are so nervous about their season ending that it makes the game somewhat ugly. I would expect the same from this one, as Nebraska certainly has a lot on the line heading into this game. They will probably need more than this win to get into the Big Dance, but they at least get a chance to make a statement in a matchup with the top seed. Nebraska 69, Oklahoma State 60.
#5 Colorado vs. #12 Iowa State
Depending on where you look, some have Colorado as one of the last teams to make the tournament, and some feel they still have some work to do. Obviously a loss to the worst team in the Big 12 would likely dash their hopes of a bid, so this game could go one of two ways. They know that this is a must-win, so they’ll either come out like world beaters or they’ll be so tight that they let the Cyclones hang around for a while and make things interesting. Iowa State won this matchup one week ago, but Alec Burks won’t let that happen here. Colorado 79, Iowa State 63.
#7 Baylor vs. #10 Oklahoma
Baylor is in the same boat as Nebraska, in that they have to use this tournament to play their way into the big tournament. The Bears have had plenty of opportunities, but losing four of your last five is never a good thing when the committee is evaluating your resume. While I want to pick the upset here, Scott Drew‘s teams do tend to get hot come tourney time, so I will give them the benefit of the doubt in this game. It won’t be easy though. Baylor 73, Oklahoma 69.
#6 Missouri vs. #11 Texas Tech
Be honest with me. How great would it be if Pat Knight somehow defied the odds and led his team a conference tournament title? Well, probably not so great for Missouri, who has lost a little bit of their swagger here lately. They head into this game with three straight losses, but none of them are what you consider “bad” losses. It’s hard to believe that this is the sixth best team in this conference, and I expect them to have a chip on their shoulder in this one. Missouri 85, Texas Tech 70.
QUARTERFINALS
#1 Kansas vs. #8 Nebraska
Well here it is. It’s all laid out on the table for Nebraska. If you go out and beat the number two team in the country, then you’re moving closer and closer to that bid into the tournament. The Cornhuskers got blown out in the second meeting between these two, but played very well in the first game at Kansas. Knowing what is on the line, I think they scare the Jayhawks for a while, but in the end, we know who the better team is. Kansas 68, Nebraska 56.
#4 Kansas State vs. #5 Colorado
This should be a fun one to watch, as a win here by Colorado would like cement their spot in the tournament. The Buffaloes won both meeting during the regular season, and that’s why I don’t think they’ll win this one. Kansas State has just completely turned their season around and are probably playing their best basketball of the season right now. Having the bye might take the wind out of their sails a little bit, so it won’t be pretty. But the Wildcats are on a mission and they’ll find a way to get the job done here. Kansas State 63, Colorado 58.
#2 Texas vs. #7 Baylor
Texas has had another one of those non-memorable finishes to the season, as they come into this tournament having lost three of their last five contests. Both games against Baylor this season haven’t exactly been pretty, so why expect anything more in this game? A part of me doesn’t trust Texas at all, and I want to believe that the Bears can win in this spot. But talent-wise, the Longhorns are better and could make an emphatic statement in route to the semifinals. Texas 77, Baylor 59.
#3 Texas A&M vs. #6 Missouri
Well everything has held true to form so far, hasn’t it? Yep, you know what’s coming here then. These two had a thrilling battle in January, with the Aggies winning 91-89 in OT. Texas A&M has been the thorn in the side of Missouri for a while now, but that comes to an end here. This will be one of the best games in the tournament to watch, but the Tigers’ pressure will be the difference. This game is going right down to the wire. Missouri 83, Texas A&M 80.
SEMIFINALS
#1 Kansas vs. #4 Kansas State
We all remember what happened the last time these two got together. The Jayhawks had been voted the number one team in the land earlier in the day, and proceeded to take a beatdown that night at the hands of Jacob Pullen and the Wildcats. However, Kansas handed out a punishment of their own at Allen Fieldhouse a few weeks before that, so this is the rubber match. Both teams are highly efficient right now, and this is the definition of a toss-up. Overall, I do think the Jayhawks are better. There’s a reason why they are 29-2. But given that one of those two losses is to Kansas State, I’m giving them a pretty good chance. No, wait. A great chance. Pullen leads his team to the Big 12 title game in an upset. Kansas State 71, Kansas 67.
#2 Texas vs. #6 Missouri
So who goes on to play the Wildcats in the Big 12 Final? No matter what I do to try and get it out of there, the Texas late-season collapse possibilities are always in the back of mind. Regardless of the talent, it just scares me a little bit. Meanwhile, why this isn’t the best team Mike Anderson has had in recent years, they still make up for it with their defense. Texas controlled the game defensively in the first meeting between these two teams, and I’m thinking they could do the same in this particular game. I really, really, really, really, really want to pick Missouri to march on to the championship game. But Texas is too talented and will find a way to win. Texas 80, Missouri 73.
BIG 12 FINAL
#2 Texas vs. #4 Kansas State
And it all comes down to this. There will be no worries of having to win to get in, as both are already in the Big Dance at this point. It’s just about the will to win a conference championship. Sometimes the statistics don’t tell the overall story, and that’s what I’m going with here. Even though Texas may be the better team overall talent-wise, the most talented team doesn’t always win. To be honest, there is just something about this Kansas State team right now. They’ve got the “us against the world” mentality, and I think they are on a mission to win this thing. Maybe they are who we thought they were, and they prove that here by winning the Big 12 tournament crown in a thriller.
FINAL: Kansas State 72, Texas 70
Well there’s my predictions for this tournament. What do you think? Who wins the Big 12 Championship?
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