Analyzing the Bracket: West Region

The first day of the 2011 NCAA Tournament is finally here (got here pretty fast, didn’t it), as two play-in games will be take place in Dayton tonight, with the other two being played tomorrow night. So while the tournament is kicking off earlier than usual, we’ve still got a few days before the traditional first round gets underway.

Yesterday, we took a look at the East Region. Next up, the very intriguing West:

OVERVIEW

There are some very interesting things to think about when it comes to this region.

Duke is the top overall seed, and defending national champions. San Diego State was being mentioned as a possible one seed not too long ago, but had to settle for a two. UConn played like a one seed in the Big East tournament, and might have the best overall player in the field of 68. And then there’s Texas, who was the number one team in the land a month or so ago, and is now slotted as a four seed.

So obviously, there’s a lot of top talent in this region, and there are teams that could have been one seeds had things fallen right for them in the stretch run of the season.

In terms of the rest of the teams in this part of the bracket, I’m not sure I see any that could make a serious run at the Final Four. That doesn’t mean that the top four will cruise to face each other, but there aren’t any other teams in this region that I think could be a Cinderella-type team.

THE EARLY ROAD FOR THE TOP FOUR

I really like this draw for the Blue Devils. No one expected Michigan to be an eight seed, and while a second round matchup with Tennessee could present some problems athletically, the Vols are too up and down to play with a consistent team like Duke. So they should be fine.

San Diego State should take care of business against Northern Colorado, but a second round matchup with Temple could be intriguing. Temple’s style is different, and this is a game to watch out for. Still though, the Aztecs are underrated, and this draw should allow them their first trip to the Sweet 16.

Kemba Walker is not going to let UConn lose. I might have liked Cornell against someone other than the Huskies, but again, given the type of showing he had in the Big East tournament, this guy is on a mission. This could be a potential let-down game, and it might not be pretty, but UConn won’t be upset. But then there’s the potential matchup with either Cincinnati or Missouri. While I won’t make official picks until tomorrow, I’m going ahead and calling Missouri over Cincy. While this isn’t Missouri’s most talented team, they are still completely underrated as an 11-seed in this tournament. Something’s wrong when Michigan is an 8-seed and the Tigers are an 11. This is a good basketball team, and their up and down, pressure defense style of play could give the Huskies fits. Jim Calhoun probably would have liked a better second round draw here.

Now let’s talk about Texas. I’ve said it since they won their conference tournament that Oakland would win at least one game in this tournament. Do I still believe that now that the bracket is out? I’m just not sure. While Texas has had a history of late-season collapse (see…..well, this year), this is still one of the most talented teams in the entire tournament. Jordan Hamilton and Tristan Thompson are tough to guard, and Oakland could struggle with those two. But again, in a one-game setting, anything can happen. And given the up-tempo style of Greg Campe‘s bunch, this has potential upset written all over it.

MOST INTRIGUING FIRST ROUND MATCHUP

Wow, you could probably take your pick here. This feels like a region that could go a lot of ways in this first round, and a lot of these games will probably be nail-biters.

If I had to rank the top three, I’d probably go with this:

1. Texas vs. Oakland
2. Cincinnati vs. Missouri
3. Michigan vs. Tennessee

Again, this Oakland team is just a lot of fun to watch, and with them being one of those potential sleeper teams that most people had pegged heading into the tournament, it’s going to be interesting to see them play a top-tier team like the Longhorns. But of course, this all depends on which Texas team shows up.

FIRST ROUND UPSET SPECIAL

We’ve pretty much covered the possibilities. Texas-Oakland is the most intriguing possibility, while Missouri over Cincinnati is probably the safer choice.

A lot of people have mentioned the Memphis over Arizona upset, but I just don’t see it. Memphis isn’t that good, and had to win their bad conference tournament to even get into this historically weak field of 68. Derrick Williams might be the only real threat for the Wildcats, but I just don’t think this Tigers’ team is experienced enough to pull off this upset.

What are your thoughts on the West? Who do you see as the potential sleeper team in this part of the bracket?

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