Bracket Analysis: Southwest Region

We’re only a day away from the madness (or in day two of it if you count the First Four games), which means that we’re only a day away from productivity levels dropping all across the country.

We’ve already analyzed the East and West regions of the bracket, but today, we finish off the other side of the bracket. First up, the unpredictable Southwest:

OVERVIEW

A very talented region with one of the most talented teams in the nation heading it up. You’ve got some outstanding defensive teams in this part of the bracket, which means we can expect to see a lot of grind-it-out type of games that will go right down to the wire. I like it.

Kansas is clearly the second best team in the country, so it’s no surprise that they get a one seed in this specific region. Notre Dame as a two isn’t surprising either. Nor are most of the other seeds in this bracket.

But one committee error I think that most would probably agree on is that Richmond is under-seeded as a 12. No one hates to see this more than myself, as they’re going up against my Vandy team who has had their struggles in the first round in recent years. Matchup-wise though, I do think the Spiders kind of got the shaft here, because they would have much rather went up against a team like West Virginia in the 5/12 game.

THE EARLY ROAD FOR THE TOP FOUR

The top half of the bracket looks pretty good for Kansas and Louisville. Obviously the Jayhawks will move on past Boston University in the first round, and then comes the potential intriguing matchup with Bill Self‘s former team, Illinois.

Of course, it’s also intriguing to remember that Kansas would have played UNLV in the second round of last year’s tournament had they not gotten beat by Northern Iowa. So if Kansas gets the Runnin’ Rebels in round two, perhaps they pay them back for allowing that pesky Northern Iowa team to move on, and eventually knock out the top overall seed in the Jayhawks.

While I hesitate to say that Louisville will crush Morehead State, it’s clear that the Cardinals are playing some great basketball right now. But, it would not surprise me one bit if this one is close. If you don’t know who Kenneth Faried is right now, you will after this game. Trust me, you will. And let’s not forget about Demonte Harper, who can score with the best of them. Louisville should win the game, but I’m gonna go ahead and say it right now: I would not be surprised if Morehead State pulled the upset. But should the Cardinals move on, they get either Vandy or Richmond, and honestly, I want to be biased here. However, either one of these matchups are good for Louisville, so if they can do enough to get by in round one, they should be in the Sweet 16.

As for the bottom part of the bracket, well, that’s where things could get a little tricky for the top two seeds there.

Look, I know Notre Dame is the second best team in the Big East. But they haven’t exactly had a history of winning games they were supposed to win the NCAA Tournament. Akron won’t give them trouble, but the next round, well, that could be much different. Texas A&M and Florida State are two of the best defensive teams in the tournament, and if they can get enough offense to go with that (the Aggies can, not sure about FSU), they could definitely knock off the Irish.

Purdue is also a question mark. They haven’t played their best basketball recently, and while I don’t think it will happen, Saint Peter’s could give them a great game. The next round they would get Georgetown or the winner of tonight’s play-in game between USC and VCU. Both the Hoyas and Trojans could give the third seed trouble.

MOST INTRIGUING FIRST ROUND MATCHUP

I think you’ve got to go with Texas A&M-Florida state here, because of the defensive battle this could be. You’ve also got a matchup between Khris Middleton and Chris Singleton that should be very fun to watch. Both guys can explode offensively if they get rolling, and will also be huge factors on the defensive end as well.

You could also go with the Lon Krueger Bowl in the 8/9 game with UNLV and Illinois, but to me, the Aggies and Seminoles should have the best first round game in this region.

FIRST ROUND UPSET SPECIAL

This is tough, because as I’ve mentioned, there are several possibilities in this part of the bracket. If I had to pick only one, I would go with USC over Georgetown if the Trojans can knock off VCU in the play-in game. And while I said that the Morehead State-Louisville upset was a possibility, I don’t feel as strong about that one as I do about Kevin O’Neill‘s squad matching up with Georgetown.

What do you think about the Southwest Region? Who is the sleeper in this part of the bracket?

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