Bracket Analysis: Southeast Region

Well the first round of the NCAA Tournament (I refuse to say second round) is almost here, so hopefully you’ve dissected the matchups and figured out all your upsets and Final Four picks. And if you haven’t, well, just go with your gut.

We’ve been previewing all the regions here on Busting Brackets, and we’re finally to the last region: the Southwest Region. Let’s take a look at what to expect from this bracket:

OVERVIEW

I’ve been saying it since the brackets came out Sunday evening. This is the weakest region overall in this tournament. It just is. Yes, Pittsburgh won the toughest conference in America, so they deserve their number one seed.

After that though? Well, this bracket has some problems.

Florida is probably over-seeded as a two. The SEC was clearly down this season, and even though Kentucky beat them in the conference championship, the Gators somehow still solidified a two-seed. I’m a firm believe in the opinion that a team should be seeded based on their entire body of work, not just their conference tournament. Florida was the best team in the SEC all season. So, a good overall body of work. But still, I just feel like a two seed is too high. A three would have been much better.

As for the three seed, I’m fine with BYU being there. But, you won’t convince me that this team is capable of making a run in this tournament without Brandon Davies. It was obvious that they weren’t the same team in the Mountain West final against San Diego State, and you can’t just flip a switch once you get to the Big Dance. Jimmer Fredette is going to take more than 50% of their shots, and and if he were to struggle with his shot, I’m not confident that anyone else is going to step up and provide scoring.

Wisconsin can play defense, but they struggle to score at times. All we need to say there is 36-33. Kansas State has been playing better, however, still aren’t as consistent as they should be. St. John’s has a tough draw in Gonzaga, and won’t have DJ Kennedy.

So as you can see, there’s some glaring concerns with some of the top teams in this bracket. And that is a recipe for madness.

EARLY ROAD FOR THE TOP FOUR

Despite the fact that Pitt won the Big East this season, we know that the tournament is about matchups. No, we aren’t concerned with the UNC-Asheville matchup. But we should be concerned with either second round opponent.

Everyone knows what Butler did last season. They aren’t the same team this time around, but you can’t sit there and say that the experience from last year won’t carry over a little bit into this tournament. Of course, they have to get by Old Dominion first, who is probably one of the most underrated teams in this entire field.

Let’s remember something else as well. Pittsburgh hasn’t exactly been the model for “how to play up to your potential in the NCAA Tournament.” They’ve struggled in recent years in this tournament, and everyone knows it. Butler or ODU will be confident in that second round game. It’s up to Pitt to realize that there’s no easy games once you get to this point.

As for Florida, they are looking at a potential meeting with UCLA or Michigan State in the second round. Those are two teams with great tradition, and both Ben Howland and Tom Izzo have had a lot of success in this situation. But so has Billy Donovan. I think the matchup with the Spartans is more scary for Florida than the one with the Bruins.

BYU gets Wofford in round number one, and let me tell ya, this is no cakewalk for a team that is limping into the tourney. The Cougars are the better team, but they better not sleep on this Wofford team. The second round matchup for BYU could be a major problem though. Whether it be St. John’s or Gonzaga, I just think both of those teams have a great shot at knocking off the three-seed.

And we all know about Wisconsin. Or to put it a better way: we all know about Belmont. Rick Byrd‘s team has been the sexy pick to move on even before the brackets were announced. This is a good matchup for Belmont, but we can’t forget that Wisconsin did beat the top overall seed in this tournament in Ohio State. They’re not exactly a pushover. If the Badgers survive the Belmont game, they’d get Kansas State or Utah State in the second round. More on that particular game shortly.

MOST INTRIGUING FIRST ROUND MATCHUP

Maybe it’s just because a lot of these teams aren’t what you would call “great,” but are good. So regardless of the seeding, it seems like most of the matchups in this region are pretty even (aside from the top three seeds). That means it’s pretty much impossible to pick one game over the rest of them.

But if I have to go with one, I’m gonna say the Butler-ODU game. I say that because I honestly believe either team could give Pitt a fight in the second round. It’s going to be interesting to see how Butler plays early on, and if they have the edge because of last year’s run.

FIRST ROUND UPSET SPECIAL

Utah State over Kansas State. I made that easy, huh? Utah State is a very good team, and I really think this is towards the top in terms of potential first round upsets in this tournament.

The Belmont over Wisconsin one has been talked about so much now that you wonder if it’s one of those things where everyone is talking about constantly…..which means it probably won’t end up happening.

In this bracket though, you could seriously take your pick on any of the games other than the top three, and you’re argument would be warranted. Gonzaga over St. John’s could easily happen. Michigan State over UCLA could happen. So don’t be upset if you don’t like the Utah State over K State pick. You’ve plenty of options in this region.

What are your thoughts on the West Region? Who is this sleeper team in this part of the bracket?

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