2011-2012 Preview: Talking Vanderbilt Basketball With Christian D’Andrea

In preparation for the start of the 2011-2012 regular season on November 7, we’re running a series here on Busting Brackets where we talk with other writers about their team or conference. You can check out all of the pieces in our preview series by clicking here. Our series continues with an in-depth conversation with Christian D’Andrea of Anchor of Gold, as we talk about what may be the most talented team in Vanderbilt basketball history.

Be sure to check out more of Christian’s work at AnchorofGold.com, and follow him on Twitter @TrainIsland.

BB: Vandy is in the national spotlight for the first time in, well, I can’t even remember the last time they were projected this high. How has Kevin Stallings been able to completely change the face of this program? Is it simply landing great recruits?

Christian: Recruits have played a key role in things, but it’s been a combination of bringing in these great players as well as bringing in lower-level guys that can thrive under Kevin Stallings’s system. Back in 2004, Shan Foster and DeMarre Carroll were the team’s biggest pulls on the recruiting trail. Granted, they both turned into great players, but neither one was a can-miss prospect like John Jenkins was. Their success paved the way for the team to consistently pull top 100 prospects. Now, four-star recruits are the norm in Nashville. These players are great, but they are just one part of the puzzle.

The other part has been developing mid-level recruits and establishing a legacy. Vanderbilt has been building towards this season for a long time now, and that’s been a product of not always having great recruiting classes. The 2007 Sweet Sixteen team did wonders for selling the Vanderbilt vision to recruits in past years, and take a look at those guys. Stallings plucked a pair of transfers (Neltner, Byars) and a bunch of mid-level recruits (Foster, Gordon, Cage) and turned them into a squad that could knock off #1 ranked teams at home.

That helped level up recruiting, which gave Stallings better players to fit into his system, which led to a consistent presence in the top 25 over recent years. This year’s success is predicated on the end of a cycle that started with the 2008 recruiting class – which was built, in part, on 2007’s Sweet Sixteen run. If this team can go even further, it’ll set the bar for the next big recruiting class.

BB: Speaking of great recruits, do you expect to see Alex Poythress in the black and gold next season?

Christian: I’d love to see Poythress come to Nashville, and with Taylor leaving next season, Stallings’s playing time pitch is a solid one. Poythress would have a very good chance to step in right away and start at the 3 for the Commodores in 2012. However, it’s going to be a fierce battle with Florida, UK, and Memphis on his tail. Vanderbilt has done a solid job of winning over recruits over time, but a reloading UK squad (assuming the bulk of their young players jump to the draft next season), along with Coach Cal’s track record in turning recruits into first-rounders, makes me concerned that the ‘Cats will have the better pitch for the big-time swingman.

Vandy has a legitimate shot, but I’m not getting my hopes up just yet. Kentucky has proven that they can lose several great players and still be a presence in the top 25. Vanderbilt has not. Would Poythress be willing to roll through a rebuilding year after the core of this team leaves next season? That’s the big question.

BB: All the hype surrounding this team focuses around the “Big Three” in John Jenkins, Jeffery Taylor, and Festus Ezeli. These three had great seasons last year, but what part of their game has to improve for Vandy to be a legitimate Final Four threat?

Christian: Ball movement and consistency. Taylor can absolutely take over stretches of games since he has a very dynamic two-way skillset, but there are also times (too often) when he just fades into the background. Ezeli has similar problems as well, though that can be often chalked up to foul trouble. These two need to be able to sustain their terror stretches for this team to be truly dominant this season.

Ball movement will be key for the whole team, but these guys especially need to be better with their improvisation on the court. This team’s sets in the final minutes of close games were horrible last season. No one could get open, there was little movement, and many plays just wound down the shot clock before ending in a contested jumper. These guys need to work harder to create offense for others if they’re going to be efficient in clutch situations in 2012.

BB: Let’s talk a little about this year’s freshman class. Dai-Jon Parker (who stole the show at Memorial Madness), Kedren Johnson, and Shelby Moats will also suit up for the first time. What do you expect to see from these three this year?

Christian: Parker and Johnson were huge recruits just because this team’s backcourt was so shallow last season. Quick, name this team’s backup shooting guard in 2011 behind John Jenkins. Give up? It was the dynamite combination of Jordan Smart and Chris Meriwether. Last year, this team had three SEC-level guards, and one was an erratic freshman who was still adjusting to the game (Kyle Fuller).

Now, the team can employ Parker and Johnson, and each fills a huge role for the Commodores. Parker is a lockdown defender at the 2, and that’s huge for a team that got burned in upset losses by guys like Bruce Ellington and Rotnei Clarke. Stallings now has a guy on the bench that he can turn to in order to ice opposing guards, and that’s going to be an asset for this team.

Johnson has great height for a point guard and is a very good passer. He’ll probably develop into the most pure point that this team has on the roster. While Brad Tinsley is a solid player, he’s more of a combo guard than a pass-first distributor. Having Johnson man the point for stretches will allow Tins to play off the ball and make him a more effective player. Bottom line: the backcourt got leaps and bounds better with the addition of these two freshmen.

Moats is the less-heralded member of the freshman class, but he’s a classic Vanderbilt power forward in the Matt Freije mold. He can stretch the floor with solid shooting and rebound sufficiently. I think he’ll end up redshirting this year, but he may get pressed into action thanks to Festus Ezeli’s six-game suspension to open the season.

BB: And what about redshirt freshmen Josh Henderson and James Siakam? Do you see either one of these two getting significant minutes off the bench?

Christian: Henderson is this team’s only true center behind Ezeli. He is going to get his chance to shine, especially thanks to Festus’s early-season suspension. He’s got good hands and nice touch around the basket, and he’ll provide a good counter to Ezeli’s defense-focused game at the five. However, he’s still got a ways to go before he can handle long stretches in the paint in SEC play, and he’ll have to bulk up if he wants to become a true traditional center in the NCAA.

Siakam is another story. He looked great at Memorial Madness and his developmental track could end up mirroring Ezeli’s since both picked up the game later in life. Right now, he’s a tenacious defender and rebounder, but since he’s only 6’6″, he may not have a future at his natural power forward position. His impact will all come down to whether or not he can overcome his size deficiency and lack of an offensive game to become Vandy’s version of Dennis Rodman.

BB: So in looking at the depth on this team, is this the best team from top to bottom in Vanderbilt history?

Christian: I think so. We’ve been saying this for a while, especially for the Ogilvy/Beal led team in 2009, but these Commodore teams just keep getting better and better. It alludes back to the recruiting question – right now, the ‘Dores have eight players on the current roster that were rated as four-star recruits or better. In past years, we’d have been lucky to have 2-3.

BB: To add onto that, all these Preseason Top 10 rankings that are flying around are definitely warranted then, right?

Christian: From a pure talent standpoint, absolutely. Ezeli, Jenkins, and Taylor all have the capability to become first-round draft picks in next year’s NBA draft. This is a team with postseason experience as well, as grim as the results may have been. For a pre-season ranking, based on what we know and what we can predict, 7th in the country sounds reasonable for the Commodores.

Of course, if we were rating this team based on how they finished last season…

BB: In terms of where Vandy fits into the SEC race. Are Vandy and Kentucky the clear top two, with Florida and Alabama right behind them?

Christian: I never know what to think about Florida. Sometimes I can convince myself that they make the SEC a league with three elite teams, thanks to their backcourt of Boynton-Walker-Beal. Other times, I look at a relatively inexperienced frontcourt and lack of veteran leadership and think otherwise. So yes, from talent and leadership alone, I’d put Vandy/UK at one and two. However, Florida will continue their rise back to prominence and Alabama and Mississippi State should both put together solid years and help bring the SEC back to a high level of play.

BB: Obviously the Wildcats are getting a lot hype due to their returners and recruiting class. But is there a particular area where you think the Commodores have a clear advantage over John Calipari’s squad?

Christian: I’d like to say leadership and postseason experience, but the Wildcats have several players on their team that have gone further in the NCAA and SEC Tournaments than anyone on Vandy’s roster. I do think that Vanderbilt has the edge in post defense with Ezeli, and the John Jenkins/Jeffery Taylor combination on offense gives this team a dimension of floor-spacing shooting and zone-shrinking slashing that the ‘Cats cannot match up with.

Other than that, this team has been together longer, has a bigger chip on their shoulder to knock off, and will play with more intensity. Kentucky may have more NBA-bound players than the Commodores, but they don’t have the connection that playing with the same guys for four years will give you, nor do they have the fire of shedding the “choker” label after two straight NCAA Tournament first-round defeats. In the cohesive sense, Vanderbilt is the better “team” than Kentucky is right now.

BB: Well let’s wrap this up with a prediction. How far do you see this team going this season? Will the Dores be playing in New Orleans come March?

Christian: In the regular season, Vandy goes 24-6 and 12-4 in the SEC. Runs to the SEC Tournament title game but loses a heartbreaker. Earns a 3 seed in the NCAA tournament and gets to the Elite Eight before Jeff Green uses the free time he has with the NBA on strike to enroll at UConn for a season, where he travels his way once more to a crushing defeat of the Commodores.

Yeah, I’m still bitter on that one.

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