2011-2012 College Basketball Conference Preview: Atlantic 10

In preparation for the start of the 2011-2012 regular season on November 7, we’re running a preview series here on Busting Brackets. You can check out all of our pieces in the series by clicking here. Our previews continue with a look at the Atlantic 10.

CONFERENCE STRENGTH

Last season, the Atlantic 10 received three bids to the NCAA Tournament, with one (Richmond) reaching the Sweet 16, one (Temple) reaching the round of 32 and one (Xavier) getting bounced out in their first contest. That was not a bad year for the A-10. This season, the league should be as strong or stronger.

As usual, the class of the league will be Xavier and Temple. Xavier is a consensus preseason Top 25 pick and Temple probably should be as well. The Musketeers return three starters from last year, including a stellar backcourt. Temple returns four starters, along with an almost as stellar guard tandem. These two squads will undoubtedly battle each other for league supremacy throughout the winter and early March.

While Chris Mooney’s Richmond Spiders figure to be at least a bit down this year, there are a number of teams that realistically seek to fill the void and become the third and maybe fourth NCAA Tournament contenders. St. Louis and St. Joseph’s appear to be the frontrunners for these positions. Both programs are led by legendary coaches, in Rick Majerus and Phil Martelli. Both schools also return the bulk of their players from teams that had disappointing 2010-11 seasons and are eager for redemption.

There is a lot of balance in the league from three to, at least, eleven. So, teams such as George Washington, St. Bonaventure, Duquesne, Dayton, and yes, even Richmond could contend for top four positions in the league, as well.

HEAD OF THE CLASS

As previously discussed, there is no need for prognostication when the question of A-10 supremacy is brought up. Xavier has averaged 26 wins over the last five years and has won or shared five consecutive regular-season league championships. Temple has averaged 24.5 wins over the last four seasons and the Owls have won three of the last four A-10 tournaments. While Richmond has been very good the last two seasons, there is no disputing Temple and Xavier’s strangle hold on the Atlantic 10.

THE SLEEPER

There is a school in Washington, D.C. that has been dormant for quite some time, despite geographical advantages and some positive history. Having last made an NCAA Tournament appearance in 2007, the George Washington Colonials have been irrelevant since then. Enter new coach and D.C. area native, Mike Lonergan. Lonergan has won everywhere he’s been as a head coach, most recently at Vermont, where he compiled a 166-129 record, including a 2010 NCAA Tournament berth and two NIT appearances.

While Lonergan may not be familiar with it, there is some talent that was left for him at GW. The Colonials return four starters from last season, including their top scoring and assist man, senior guard Tony Taylor. Taylor was a second team All-A-10 selection in 2010-11 and will be expected, along with the rest of the team, to become more dedicated on the defensive end under the new coach.

FIRST TEAM ALL-CONFERENCE

• Juan Fernandez (Temple) – The steady, savvy, veteran point guard returns this year, after averaging 11 points, 4 assists and 3 rebounds last season. Look for improvement in all areas for Fernandez and more wins for the Owls.
• Tu Holloway (Xavier) – The 1st team All-America candidate is one of the best point guards in the country. Holloway averaged 19.7 points, 5.4 assists and shot 87% from the foul line as a junior.
• Mark Lyons (Xavier) – Tu Holloway’s sidekick emerged last season to average 13.6 points and 3 rebounds a game. It is everyone’s expectation that those numbers will increase significantly this year.
• Ramone Moore (Temple) – The versatile 6’4 senior guard averaged 15.2 points and 4.2 rebounds as a redshirt junior last year. He’ll be asked to do even more this time around.
• Andrew Nicholson (St. Bonaventure) – This extremely efficient 6’9 senior forward from Canada will seek national honors and exposure as he attempts to improve upon his 20.8 points and 7.3 rebounds per game average from last season. Bonnies fans hope that equals more wins, as well.

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH

• 1. Xavier – The most talented team in the league should wind up on top again for the sixth straight campaign.
• 2. Temple – The veteran squad will battle it out with Xavier for the league title. The Owls will have to make up for the absence of Lavoy Allen, now property of the Philadelphia 76ers.
• 3. Saint Louis – Rick Majerus looks to return to relevance coming off of a very tough 2010-11, both on and off of the court. The return of all five starters, as well as suspended junior Kwamain Mitchell’s return, should make things a little easier.
• 4. Saint Joseph’s – The hard times endured by a freshmen core last year should pay dividends this season for Coach Martelli.
• 5. George Washington – New coach Mike Lonergan and old guard Tony Taylor should be able to make a run at the upper echelon of the A-10.
• 6. Dayton – Led by first year coach Ryan “Archie” Miller (younger brother of Arizona coach Sean Miller), Dayton should not fall off too far.
• 7. Richmond – The Spiders lost the entire core of a team that won 55 games over the last two seasons, including a Sweet 16 appearance last year. Coach Chris Mooney should be able to keep them competitive, however.
• 8. Duquesne – The Dukes return a solid nucleus, including A-10 Rookie of the Year, T.J. McConnell. That should equal a solid season with a possible top half to third of the league finish.
• 9. St. Bonaventure – Led by All-America candidate Andrew Nicholson, the Bonnies have high hopes for the 2011-12 season. How high they actually finish will depend on Nicholson’s supporting cast, particularly whoever fills the starting point guard slot.
• 10. Massachusetts – 4th year head coach Derek Kellogg feels that this is the year the Minutemen will break through into the top half of the conference. Reaching that goal will depend largely on Hofstra transfer Chaz Williams and how quickly he adjusts to the A-10.
• 11. Charlotte – Four starters return for 2nd year coach Alan Major. All four and a solid recruiting class will have to step up in order to avoid another bottom of the conference finish for the 49ers.
• 12. Rhode Island – Last year’s veteran team has turned into an extremely young and untested one, due to the loss of three starters and major contributors. Coach Jim Baron’s team will struggle despite a promising recruiting class.
• 13. LaSalle – Coach John Giannini hopes this year will be a classic case of addition by subtraction, after the transfer of the talented, yet enigmatic forward Aaric Murray to West Virginia in the off-season. Either way, LaSalle will struggle.
• 14. Fordham – In his second year as Rams head coach, Tom Pecora has made great strides both on the court and in recruiting. However, Rome was not built in a day and neither will a Fordham program that won a total of 5 games (yes, 5!) in the two years prior to Pecora’s arrival. The Rams will be led by rebounding machine Chris Gaston (11.3 per game in 2010-11).

There you have it. What are your thoughts on the A-10 this season?

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