Bubble Rap: Life In The NCAA Tournament Bubble
By Jamal Murphy
We have reached the point in the season where every game not only matters, but is amplified to a manic status, at least for those squads lucky (or unlucky) enough to be on or anywhere in the vicinity of the vaunted “bubble.”
As long as that sentence was, it is nothing compared to how far away Selection Sunday must feel to these poor bubbly souls. The fortunes – both perceived and real – of these squads can shift with every “good win” or “bad loss” and of course, the positive results for one team can be the downfall of another.
In all seriousness, this season’s Selection Committee will have one of the tougher tasks in recent memory. With each passing day, it seems harder to distinguish between the proverbial contenders and pretenders. The only sure thing appears to be that Kentucky and Syracuse are very good. I think.
With all that said, let’s take a look at yesterday’s bubble action and what it all means, until tomorrow at least.
Pop the Bubbly
Purdue continued to solidify their spot with a thorough beatdown of Nebraska. If you think that’s nothing, talk to Bruce Weber and Illinois. Moreover, avoiding bad losses is almost as important as picking up good wins this late in the season.
The Atlantic 10’s Dayton got a very big road win at Duquesne. The Flyers, one of the last four in in my most recent Bracketology, lost to Duquesne at home earlier this month, but have now won three of their last four after a very rough stretch.
Back to the “no time for bad losses” theme, VCU, Marshall, Drexel, Memphis, and Iowa State all avoided that pitfall with wins that either kept them tenuously on the inside of the bubble (Memphis and Iowa State), or on the outside, still in a position to make a late move.
South Florida is a team that you might have expected to be on the other side of the bubble argument because they um, lost. But, their 8-point loss at Syracuse actually improved their position. USF played the Cuse tough, which will help them with the eye test, for those that abide by such tests. More importantly, the loss actually improved their RPI numbers and even more importantly, should give the Bulls confidence that they can beat a few of the good teams remaining on their schedule.
LSU’s win over Georgia keeps them in the mix at a game over .500 in the SEC. They have a ways to go, but the opportunity is there if they can avoid an upset and make some noise in the conference tournament.
Long Beach State put together another impressive performance, this time on national television, as they soundly defeated league rival Cal Santa Barbara. If the 49ers take care of business and win their next three games, they will have completed an undefeated Big West season and likely done enough to earn an at-large bid in case they falter in the conference tournament again.
Bubble Trouble
I know, I’ve said that a loss to a higher ranked team, particular on the road, is rarely debilitating, but when you’re a team that is barely sniffing the bubble, such as Wyoming, failing to capitalize on the opportunity to beat San Diego State will likely be a killer. Minnesota – the first team out in my last bracket – may have missed their opportunity, as well. At 5-10 in the Big Ten, they would have to win three straight (including a win at Wisconsin and vs. Indiana) just to get to a borderline permissible 8-10.
St. Joseph’s, a team that is surprisingly deep in the mix, suffered a killer home loss at the hands of Richmond. You have to figure it won’t take much for the Committee to push the Hawks aside and this defeat may be just the excuse needed. St. Joe’s will likely need to beat Temple at home on Saturday and make some noise in the A-10 tourney.
Though not really on my bubble coming into the week, West Virginia’s drubbing at the hands of Notre Dame could send them in that direction. The Mountaineers have now lost three of four and six of eight. They now sit at 7-8 in the Big East and have to win at least two of their next three games in order to feel somewhat comfortable going into the Big East Tournament.
George Mason likely had to win the Colonial tournament prior to last night’s loss at Northeastern. Now, the Patriots almost definitely have to win out, or at the very least win until the conference final to have any semblance of a chance at the big dance. They just have too many subpar losses.
Ole Miss is pretty much done after a loss at Tennessee, last night. They drop to 5-8 in the SEC and their one good win versus Mississippi State doesn’t look so good anymore.
UCF and their fans were no doubt surprised this week when they saw that a few Bracketologists actually had them in their fields of 68 (they were in the first four out in mine). Well, some teams just can’t handle success. MJ’s son & co. took one on the chin at Rice, no doubt a major setback. Their February 28th visit to Memphis looks like an absolute must-win.
Speaking of shaky Conference USA teams, Southern Miss looks determined to bring their high RPI down to earth, after suffering their second straight bad loss, this time at UTEP. Their RPI remains high at the moment, so if they can avoid another bad loss or two, they should be OK.
What are your thoughts on the state of the bubble?