NCAA Tournament 2012: National Championship Game Prediction

(1) Kentucky (37-2) vs. (2) Kansas (32-6) – 9:23PM ET, New Orleans, LA, CBS

Well, here we are. We have reached the final game of the season with the last two teams standing. And for Kentucky coach John Calipari the script couldn’t be more potentially storybook or disastrous.

In an apropos ending to the season for Calipari, he will face a familiar and quite formidable foe in Kansas coach Bill Self. Of course, it was Self who won his first and only National Championship in 2008 by ripping Calipari’s heart out with an improbable come-from-behind victory over Cal’s Memphis squad that featured Derek Rose.

Thus, this game is obviously set up for either a Calipari payback game, or a Self who’s your daddy game.

Program-wise, this is a match-up of the two “winningest” teams in the history of division I college basketball.

Player-wise, this is a match-up of the National Player of the Year, Kentucky’s Anthony Davis, and the Player of the Year runner-up, Kansas’ Thomas Robinson.

So there is intrigue galore in this National Championship game and it will be interesting to see if the actual game can live up to the many storylines.

Despite Kentucky’s gaudy record, immense talent and incredible hype, I was skeptical about their National Championship chances. In fact, I’m on record as predicting they would not win this year’s tournament. But, the mature play of their freshmen, Anthony Davis’ rapid by-the-minute improvement (he was great to begin with), and point guard Marquis Teague’s surprisingly steady play, have me ready to perform a last-minute switch-a-roo.

I feared that a rugged defensive team, such as Michigan State, could give the young Wildcats all they could handle, or the grand stage of the Final Four combined with the Louisville pressure and Pitino genius could trip up Calipari and company. However, Kentucky has simply shown poise and dominance regardless of the opponent and even this Taurus’s stubbornness has limits.

Kansas has simply found a way to win throughout this tournament. They have not played their best for a 40-minute period yet, but the Jayhawks have picked up their defense, received offensive contributions from a variety of role-players, and junior guard Elijah Johnson has evolved into a prime-time performer to go along with Thomas and Tyshawn Taylor.

While Taylor has struggled throughout the tournament, junior 7-foot center Jeff Withey has been a force, particularly on the defensive end and could give Davis and Terrence Jones problems on the low block.

The X-factor in tonight’s game could be Michael Kidd-Gilchrist for Kentucky. He spent much of the Wildcats’ National Semi-final victory in foul trouble, but was instrumental in Kentucky’s second half game-clinching run. If Gilchrist can avoid foul trouble in this contest, he could be the other player (besides Mr. Davis) that Kansas has no answer for.

Look for Kansas to represent themselves much better than they did in a 10-point loss to Kentucky at Madison Square Garden in November. However, Kentucky is poised, confident and primed to take home the National Championship trophy and yank that monkey off Calipari’s back.

Look for the Jayhawks to keep things competitive with a relentless defensive performance, but even if Taylor comes out of his mini-slump to help Thomas and Johnson on the offensive end, Kentucky should still have them outnumbered.

After all that Kentucky “hating” I did, they seem to have won me over. But, that may bode well for Kansas. Who knows?

Prediction: Kentucky 79, Kansas 74