2012 NBA Draft: Most Overrated College Prospects
It’s Draft Day! With the 2012 NBA Draft less than 24 hours away, Busting Brackets is revealing its most overrated college prospects in this year’s class. Give us your thoughts and be sure to check out our most underrated college prospects which will be released later today. Without further ado, our top qualifiers:
Player |
Pos.
School
Projected
Value
Harrison Barnes
SF
North Carolina
Top 5
Late Lottery
Evaluation:
Let’s start positive. Barnes has one of the sweetest outside strokes from 20-feet-out in the entire class. At 6-foot-8, the two-year North Carolina forward has NBA size, plus, if his obsession with branding his image is any indication, already an NBA mentality. Barnes is a solid rebounder for the position and could project to be a plus-rebounder at the next level. That’s all for the superlatives. Now here’s a dose of reality for league general managers: Harry doesn’t bring anything else to the table. An average defender who appears better than he actually is on the defensive end because he’s always in a guarding position, Barnes had trouble keeping up with the quicker wings in the ACC. On the offensive end, the Aimes, Iowa product struggled with the most fundamental element of the game: putting the ball in the hoop at an efficient level. Barnes’ 48.7-percent effective field goal rate—which accounts for the fact that three-point field goals are worth more than two-point shots—was subpar relative to the gross average of the Top 100 players at his position. Barnes’ 53.9-percent true shooting percentage–which adjusts for three-point field goals AND free throw percentage—was also below average. At his best, Barnes was a volume scorer. At his worst, he was a chucker who constantly ruined the flow of North Carolina’s offense. Even with the nation’s top passing point guard putting Barnes in optimal scoring positions, the projected top-five pick offers little redeeming value on the offensive end. He’s a chucker sans a handle, he’s a ball stopper who refuses to pass (he averaged a paltry 1.5 assists per game) and he has no left dribble. Barnes has one go-to move that can translate to the next level: a great pull-up jumper off one-bounce to his right. That’s awfully selective repertoire for a guy some GMs are counting on as a cornerstone, franchise piece. Look no further than Barnes’ disappearance in the Elite Eight of last year’s NCAA tournament, when with North Carolina’s season weighing in the balance, Barnes had a miserable game. Minus Kendall Marshall, the sophomore Barnes showed his true colors, shooting just 5-of-14 against a stifling Kansas defense. No player in college basketball had a more appropriate sendoff than the Black Falcon himself. My condolences to the GM who wastes a top-five pick on this one-trick pony.
Marquis Teague
PG
Kentucky
Late 1st Round
Second Round
Evaluation:
Playing on a team with five legitimate first round talents, it’s easy to assume former Kentucky point guard Marquis Teague was one of them. He’s not. Nowhere close. Playing on a loaded Wildcats squad and aided by an up-tempo offense, Teague averaged just 4.8 assists while averaging close to 33 minutes per game last season. Sure, a Teague apologist would fairly point to Teague’s upward trend over the latter half of the season, suggesting the freshman was maturing and improving over the course of the year. But even after a strong stretch run, Teague finished the year with below average stats. His 45-percent effective field goal percentage and 12 points per 40 minutes clip were both well below the averages of the Top 100 point guards in college basketball last season. Teague has three perks working in his favor: he’s super quick, spearheaded a loaded Kentucky championship team and his brother Jeff plays in the league (Atlanta). But quickness alone won’t be enough for Teague at the next level. His decision-making and court awareness must improve by leaps and bounds and he needs to add another wrinkle to his game, whether it be at creating steals or becoming a decent rebounder (a la former Kentucky standout and NBA star Rajon Rondo). Teague has a spot on an NBA roster. But he’s not one of the 30-best prospects in this year’s draft class.
Damian Lillard
PG
Weber State
Top 10
Top 15-20
Evaluation:
Lillard measured out at a shade under 6-foot-3 in shoes at an NBA workout, which is on the low-end of the scale of a typical NBA point guard’s height. We’ll let that slide for now, as Kyrie Irving is 6-foot-3 himself and just had one of the best rookie seasons ever. Russell Westbrook is 6-foot-3 himself, and he’s not too shabby either. What’s most concerning about Lillard’s Top 10 projection (some mock drafts, including
, have him going as high as No. 6) is that he has a scorer’s mentality stuck inside a point guard’s body. Although Lillard is unselfish and a willing passer, his career at Weber State was more befitting of a combo guard than a true point. Of course, the talent around Damian wasn’t top-notch, and that played a major role in his uninspiring assist numbers (his teammates combined to shoot just 41-percent off feeds from Lillard). But playing in the Big Sky Conference, Lillard was also going up against inferior competition. Against a weak overall schedule last season, Lillard dished out just 4 dimes per game while averaging 34.5 minutes per contest. And that was his career high! Lillard is a great shooter (he shot better than 40-percent from downtown last season and 89-percent from the charity stripe). He’s lightning quick, rebounds well for his position and turned the ball over on just 10-percent of his possessions. But he’s not an NBA point guard—at least not yet—in terms of running an offense, making teammates better and distributing the basketball where it needs to go. In short, he’s the antithesis of Kendall Marshall, a virtuous passer and playmaker with lacking athleticism and substandard shooting ability. Lillard will stick somewhere in the league and could be a great 6
th
man type sooner than later. But can he be a franchise point guard? That’s where I have my doubts.
Austin Rivers
SG
Duke
Lottery
Top 15-20
Evaluation:
One shot should never define a player’s college career. In the case of Austin Rivers, it probably does. Rivers, who etched himself in Duke-North Carolina lore after his cold-blooded three as time expired silenced the rival Tar Heels in Chapel Hill, hit a number of big-time shots throughout his freshman season. Duke’s disastrous meltdown against Lehigh in the NCAA tournament denied us from being able to measure up Rivers against some of the other clutch players in college hoops last season who willed their teams deep into the tournament. It did, however, shed light on how the son of NBA head coach Doc Rivers handles adversity. In the team’s biggest game of the season, Rivers had one of his worst, scoring 19 points (including a pair of buckets when the game was all but over) on 14 shots in a shocking 75-70 loss. Rivers has benefitted from being in a privileged position to this point in his career. As the son of Doc and one of the premiere high school talents in the Class of 2011, Rivers has faced little in the way of resistance. He started on one of the premiere programs in the country as a freshman, logging the most minutes of anyone on the roster. How will he handle a bench role in the NBA? Or having his pop on the other sidelines as opposed to in his corner? Better yet, what position is he even going to play? Rivers is 6-foot-5 in shoes, which is on the low end of the spectrum for an NBA shooting guard. Does he have the size, strength and consistent shooting to play the two-guard at the next level? That remains to be seen. A switch to point guard is out of the question. Although Rivers is a capable passer, he’s not a willing passer. If Austin wants to make a name for himself in the league, he’ll have to find a set position. As of now, he’s caught in-between. There are very few elite, starting combo guards in the NBA, headlined most notably by Russell Westbrook. For Rivers to reach that level of excellence, his passing will need polish and shooting will need more consistency. Unlike fellow 6-foot-5 shooting guard Bradley Beal, Rivers is not an exceptional rebounder or defender relative to his position. So until he shores up some other elements of his game, I’d pass on A.R. in the lottery. One of the 14 GMs with a lotto pick won’t though. Of that, I’m quite sure.
Tony Wroten
PG
Washington
Late 1st Round
Second Round
Evaluation:
Not only is former Huskies point guard Tony Wroten not worthy of a first round selection, he’s not particularly good, period. Scouts are fawning over Wroten’s athleticism, and justifiably so. His measurables at NBA team workouts were off the charts, and he was perhaps the most athletic player on a Washington team replete with athletes. In terms of pure basketball skills, however, Wroten is severely lacking. The ex-Husky shot a dismal 16.1-percent from downtown during his freshman season and an equally wretched 58.3-percent from the line. His 3.7 assists per game were bad. His 3.8 turnovers per tilt were even worse. No NBA general manager should maintain his job after wasting a first round pick on a guy who in college posted an assist-to-turnover ratio less than 1. On sheer athleticism alone, Wroten will offer some value at the next level. His athleticism allows him to create turnovers, rebound well for his position and run an efficient fast-break. There is a baseline for athleticism that all NBA prospects must meet. Wroten, not surprisingly, makes a mockery of it. But his supremacy on the athletic meter alone does not compensate for his deficiencies in other areas of the game, namely shooting, decision-making and passing. Some pompous team will take a flyer on Wroten, thinking it can develop basketball skills to complement his exceptional athleticism. Wroten is a coachable kid and some team may successfully harness his many talents. But for the price of a first round pick, 29 general managers will be happy they weren’t the one to do so.