College Basketball Preseason Coaches’ Poll: Teams Ranked too High

Between 5 and 10

Lost in all the mayhem of Jared Sullinger’s falling draft stock was the realization that Sullinger was the single most productive player in college basketball over the last two seasons. He may turn out a bust at the next level, but he was an invaluable piece on Thad Matta’s team during his short tenure in Columbus. With Sullinger gone, Ohio State will need an All-American caliber season out of Deshaun Thomas, who is unproven as a go-to guy. A star in the making, Thomas is certainly capable of answering the bell, but as the No. 1 priority now on offense, he’ll have to combat defenses scheming to take him out of the offense. Thomas capitalized last season feeding off Sully as the No. 2 option in the half court. The Buckeyes must replace 32 points per game of offense this year, including their best all-around player (Sullinger) and best perimeter player (William Buford). The Buckeyes should again be one of the premiere defensive teams in all of college hoops, but replacing Buford and Sullinger in-house and without any special talent coming in makes Ohio State’s top-five ranking a bit far-fetched. Amir Williams, Shannon Scott and LaQuinton Ross: hope you’re ready to take off. You will have to in order to justify the team’s preseason ranking.

Michigan

5

Between 10 and 15

Michigan has star power, no question. Trey Burke could be the best point guard in college basketball, and with Tim Hardaway Jr. flanking him in the backcourt, the Wolverines are firmly in the discussion for best backcourt in college hoops. Glenn Robinson Jr., another son of a former NBA star, is a super-talented freshman, as is Mitch McGary, the athletic high school big man whose recruiting stock slipped up over the summer. But a top-five ranking seems overly ambitious for a team that will be heavily reliant on inexperienced underclassmen this season. Michigan was never ranked higher than 13

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in the coaches’ poll last year, so it’s difficult to see how the addition of two freshmen and the attrition around college basketball alone would result in a preseason top-5 ranking. Senior sharpshooters and former team captains Zack Novak and Stu Douglass have moved on, and Evan Smotrycz, the versatile, do-everything big an, has since transferred to Maryland. Unless McGary rekindles what once made him one of the top recruits in the 2012 class (and with his size and athleticism advantages in high school somewhat nullified, or at least mitigated, in college, this is unlikely; McGary is very unpolished and was never deserving of his top-10 prospect tag), the Wolverines don’t have the makings of a top-five team. They could be dangerous in March, and have a loaded backcourt that’s fun to watch. But this team belongs outside the Top 10, never mind the Top Five. I’m not even convinced this is the best team in Michigan.

Kansas

7

Between 10 and 15

I learned a long time ago never to count out Bill Self and Kansas, even when the skeleton of the roster suggests a substandard season is in store. This was reinforced again last season, when what appeared to be a fringe top-25 team at season’s start grew into a national title contender [and eventual runner-up]. But last season the Jayhawks were led by one of the top two players in college basketball, and a dynamic but turnover-prone [who became underappreciated nationally because of his tendency to turn the ball over] point guard who came up with big plays all season. With Thomas Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor moving on to NBA careers, the Jayhawks must replace 34.3 points per game in scoring in-house with a roster predicated upon defense. Freshman forward Perry Ellis is the real deal and should be an impact recruit right off the bat, but replacing the NPOY runner-up and one of the premiere guards in all of college basketball last season is no easy feat for Self and Kansas. The Jayhawks withstood the losses of the Morris twins and the shooting tandem of Tyrel Reed and Brady Morningstar better than anyone could have expected. But with no all-star talent on the roster capable of dominating in the manner Robinson did last season, a top-seven ranking seems too high. Jeff Withey emerged as one of the best centers in college basketball over the course of last season. For Kansas to consistently be a top-10 team this season, he’ll have to continue building on last year’s breakthrough. Defense should again be top-flight in Lawrence. But to expect an encore performance from a team that was rather fortunate to make the title game (see, NC State, playing North Carolina without Kendall Marshall) last season is unfair. Kansas will be good next season—again the team to beat in a watered down Big 12. But a top-seven preseason ranking seems inflated.

North Carolina

12

Between 20 and 25

This ranking is plain cruel to Roy Williams, James McAdoo and the scores of Tar Heels fans who buy into the unwarranted preseason hype. A top-15 ranking sets up for a major letdown in Chapel Hill in a year when not much should be expected from the team in the first place. No team in college basketball outside of the Bluegrass State loses more talent from last year’s squad than North Carolina. Coach Williams is charged with replacing four top-20 NBA draft picks, ranging from the best passing point guard in college hoops to one of the nation’s premiere frontcourt tandems last season (Tyler Zeller and John Henson). A No. 12 ranking is a best case scenario for North Carolina. For the Tar Heels to justify the preseason tag, McAdoo must live up to the billing as a preseason All-American (which is quite unfair for a kid who’s started all of three games in his collegiate career) and frontcourt freshmen Brice Johnson and Joel James will need to contribute adequately from the get-go. Twice under Roy Williams North Carolina has had to replace a super-talented core of proven starts—first the underbelly of the 2004-05 national championship team and again the foundation of the 2008-09 national title team. The first retooling project was a booming success. Tyler Hansbrough and Danny Green (future staples of Carolina’s next championship team) emerged as freshmen and UNC surged to a 21-6 regular season finish (and No. 3 seed in the NCAA tournament) capped off by a win at Duke to spoil JJ Redick’s senior night. The second retooling project was a colossal failure. With no proven leaders to turn to, North Carolina floundered for much of the season, fittingly wrapping up its season in a loss at the NIT championship game. Expect this year’s retooling efforts to more closely resemble the latter. Entering his sophomore season, McAdoo has been showered with praise and tantalizingly high expectations. But so was John Henson when he arrived at Chapel Hill in 2009, tabbed by some as “the next Kevin Durant.” Henson was a huge disappointment in his freshman season—how could he live up to those absurd expectations?—and the Tar Heels that year never lived up to the billing. If McAdoo doesn’t justify his lofty praise, this year’s UNC squad will have a similar fate. Roy Williams’s system is predicated on a pass-first point guard to facilitate his secondary fast-break and athletic, versatile big men who can get up and down the floor. So what the two-time championship-winning coach have at his disposal this season? A slew of 2-guards and a whole lot of questions at the point and inside. The general doesn’t have the right army to fit his scheme this go-around.

Texas

24

Unranked

The status of Myck Kabongo is hanging in the balance, and even if the sophomore point guard returns, there’s no guarantee he’ll be any less of a disappointment than he was in his rookie season. There’s no J’Covan Brown to bail out the Longhorns on offense this go-around. A 20-point scorer who never saw a shot he didn’t like, Brown didn’t have a perfect year as a junior before declaring for the NBA draft. He only shot 41.7-percent from the floor, was turnover-prone and somewhat of a liability on defense, but he was the Rick Barnes’s saving grace and the best all-around scoring guard not from Missouri in the Big 12 last season. Normally suspect offensively, Texas was better  than you may have thought on the offensive end last season thanks to Brown. The team managed to average 73 points per game despite playing a very slow pace, and finished the year ranked 31

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in the nation in offensive efficiency (adjusted to account for pace). But Brown was the reason why. And without him, the Longhorns could again be a chore to watch with the basketball. Good luck Sheldon McClellan and stud freshman Cameron Ridley. For the Longhorns to justify a top-25 preseason ranking ahead of the likes of VCU, Saint Louis, Murray State, Georgetown and Cincy, you two will have to play like stars.