Maryland Terrapins Basketball Season Preview
The college hoops season is right around the corner, and Busting Brackets is here to whet your basketball-starved appetite. Over the next five weeks, we are publishing season previews team by team, conference by conference, to offer a glimpse into the upcoming season. Busting Brackets is giving you the lowdown on the biggest storylines, offseason changes and x-factors for each team and each league as we roll into the 2012-13 season. Our complete season preview archive can be accessed here. Buckle up, peeps.
Maryland Terrapins
| Last Season | 17-15 (6-10 ACC) Lost to North Carolina in quarterfinals of ACC tournament |
| Key Returning Players: | Nick Faust, G James Padgett, F Pe’Shon Howard, G Alex Len, C |
| Key Additions: | Shaquille Cleare, C (The Village School) Jake Layman, F (King Philip Regional HS) Charles Mitchell, C (Wheeler HS) Seth Allen, G (Fredericksburg Christian School) Logan Aronhalt, G (Albany transfer) *Dez Wells, G (Xavier transfer, Eligibility in question) *Sam Cassell Jr., G (Ruled Ineligible, Chipola Junior College) |
| Key Losses: | Terrell Stoglin, G (Suspended, Declared for NBA draft) Sean Mosley, G Ashton Pankey, F (Transferred to Manhattan) Mychal Parker, F (Suspended, Transferred) |
| Top Non-Conference Games: | Nov. 9 vs. Kentucky (Barclays Center Classic, Brooklyn) Nov. 27 @ Northwestern Dec. 2 vs. George Mason (BB&T Classic, Verizon Center) Dec. 21 vs. Stony Brook |
| Top Conference Games: | Jan. 9 vs. Florida State Jan. 13 @ Miami (FL) Jan. 16 vs. NC State Jan. 19 @ North Carolina Jan. 26 @ Duke Jan. 30 @ Florida State Feb. 16 vs. Duke Mar. 6 vs. North Carolina |
| Breakout Player: | Alex Len. The 7-foot-1 Ukrainian center was suspended for the first ten games of last season due to issues concerning his amateur status. Now he returns for a full season of retribution. Len looked at times overmatched during ACC play last season, yet still turned in an impressive rookie campaign for a European prospect who was tabbed as a project ever since he committed to the Terps. With his size, shot-blocking ability and outside touch, Len is a legitimate NBA prospect. He has as high a ceiling as any big man in the class (and the ACC is rife with talented big men this season). Len had to spend countless time in the classrooms last season learning the English language, and it’s hard to imagine those added responsibilities not taking a toll on his on-court performance. With a firmer grasp of the English language—which should translate to better communication on the court—and likely a less rigorous off-the-court schedule, Len seems poised for a breakout season. If not, the Terps shouldn’t sweat it. Baby Shaq (Shaquille Cleare) is ready to fill the void at the first sign of trouble. If Len and Cleare even come close to tapping their potential—and neither has yet to scratch the surface—Maryland is going to have a terrorizing frontcourt for as long as the two stay in college. |
| X-Factor: | Eligibility of Dez Wells. There are a lot of x-factors for a Maryland squad facing a storm of moving parts (both into and out of the program). But no single x-factor changes the Terps’ outlook for the upcoming season more than the status of Xavier transfer Dez Wells, who was expelled from Xavier following a sexual assault allegation that a prosecutor said ultimately didn’t hold up (it never made it to court). Plainly put, with Wells, Maryland could compete for a top-five finish in the league (other variables would have to go right as well, of course). Without him, the Terps are likely looking at a season all-too similar to last. Either way, Maryland fans banking on instant returns from their stellar freshman class should probably temper their expectations for this season in light of how much the team loses from last year. But the presence of Wells alone would deliver instant credibility to the Terps backcourt, which must withstand the loss of its top two guards from last season: Terrell Stoglin and Sean Mosley. Without him, head coach Mark Turgeon would likely have to ask too much out of Nick Faust, oft-injured point guard Pe’Shon Howard and Albany transfer Logan Aronhalt. Health of Pe’Shon Howard. Although the eligibility of Wells clearly takes priority for the Terps, the health of Pe’Shon Howard shouldn’t be taken lightly. Howard missed the first month of last season because of a broken foot and the last month due to a torn ACL, which could threaten his status for the season opener. The junior point guard showed tons of promise as a freshman, but injuries ultimately derailed his follow-up campaign. If Wells’ waiver petition for immediate eligibility is ultimately denied, the health and productivity of Howard will be magnified tenfold. |
| Best Case: | Wells is eligible, Howard is healthy, Len is the real deal and the freshmen contribute immediately. Shaquille Cleare is an instant impact recruit, and the bruising freshman big proves to be a perfect complement to the more versatile, finesse-oriented Len. Freshman forward Jake Layman chips in 15 minutes per game of valuable production and much-needed perimeter shooting. Sophomore guard Nick Faust, who struggled playing mostly out of position as a freshman, picks up the scoring load returning to his natural 2-guard position (he played the 3 for most of last season). Faust, who struggled shooting the basketball last season (37-percent from the floor and 27-percent from downtown), rediscovers the shooting stroke which made him a coveted prospect in high school. Logan Aronhalt, a fifth-year Albany transfer, brings depth and experience to the Terps’ backcourt rotation while underrated senior forward James Padgett—who does all the little things—proves to be a useful glue guy in the starting lineup. Although Sean Mosley is missed, his backcourt mate Terrell Stoglin is not. Stoglin, who attempted a laughable 16.7 shots per game last season, was just a ball-stopping gunner who ruined the flow of the offense. Maryland’s depth and balance, the kind of which the program hasn’t seen since the early 2000s, enable the Terps to compete with NC State, Duke, Miami, Florida State and North Carolina. In his second year in College Park, Turgeon leads the Terrapins to the NCAA tournament in just his second year at the school. A relatively light (beyond Kentucky) non-conference schedule allows the Terps to start off the season on the right foot. With new, talented faces, Turgeon’s bunch only grows from there. |
| Worst Case: | Wells is ineligible, Howard has not fully recovered from the ACL tear, Len is not the real deal and the freshmen are unprepared to contribute immediately. Cleare flashes signs of potential, but the freshman big’s natural basketball skills have not yet caught up to his projectable NBA size. Baby Shaq is still a work in progress. Layman can shoot, but the other areas of his game still need polish, and the freshman forward spends most of the season riding the pine. Despite changing back to his natural 2-guard spot, Faust still cannot rediscover his outside shot. The sophomore guard is little more than a turnover-prone volume scorer. Without Wells, and Howard not right, the Maryland backcourt is a major weakness, proving vulnerable against better ACC backcourts. Aronhalt offers little more than good rebounding relative to his position and strong on-ball defense. The inconsistencies of Len prevent Maryland from blossoming into a frontcourt bastion this season. Mired in a deeper-than-usual ACC, the Terps fall into the bottom half of the league. Maryland sorely misses Mosley and even Stoglin, who despite the ill-advised shot selection, was still the most talented player on last year’s squad. |
| Projected Finish: | With Wells: 20-10 (10-8 ACC) 6th place (ACC season) / Lose in quarterfinals of ACC tourney Without Wells: 17-13 (8-10 ACC) 7th place (ACC season) / Lose in quarterfinals of ACC tourney |