NCAA Tournament Stats, Trends to Know Before Submitting Your Bracket

Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it.

Those who ignore these NCAA tournament stats and trends before filling out their bracket are doomed for another year of empty investment.

Listen up closely!

Slim pickings – Only teams seeded 1, 2, 3, 4, 6 and 8 have conquered the tournament. Don’t fall in love with a 5 or 7.

Feeling blue? – A blue team has won each of the last nine championships. Syracuse (2003) was the last non-blue school to do so.

Believe in the bluebloods – No, not the color this time. The bluebloods — Duke, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina and UCLA — represent the six greatest college basketball programs of all-time, owed largely to track records of consistent tournament success. For that reason, these six schools are generally the safest bets in your bracket. At least one blueblood has advanced to the Final Four in each of the last 27 years. Multiple bluebloods have occupied the Final Four 11 times in that span, which dates back to 1985 (before the 3-point line was nationalized). If your Final Four is exclusive of a single blueblood, expect at least one miss.

Zig, Not Zag – Since the coaches began voting in the USA TODAY poll in 1993, the team that finished the regular season ranked No. 1 in the poll has won the title just four times. Not an especially promising trend for No. 1 Gonzaga.

Final Four teams like to streak – Every Final Four team in the past six years has gone on a winning streak of at least eight games prior to the NCAA tournament. Consider that when forecasting Marquette and Michigan State. Neither the Golden Eagles nor Spartans had such a streak this year. Ohio State, meanwhile, hadn’t had one until it rattled off eight straight games to close out its conference season (including tournament games).

Mighty Mo – Scorch the myth of “conference tournament burnout.” More than half of the champions since seeding started in 1979 won their league tournament.

Early tournament exits loom large  – Teams that lost in the opening round of their league tournament haven’t had too much to cheer about in the Big Dance. Since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, no team has ever won a national title after losing its first-round conference tourney game. That doesn’t serve Duke or Marquette — losers in the ACC and Big East tournament quarterfinals, respectively — well. Ten of the last 19 top-four seeds that lost their first conference tournament game didn’t survive the first week.

Seniors are overrated – On only three champions since 1987 — UCLA (1995), Michigan (2000) and Maryland (2002) — have the top two scorers been seniors. Eight of the 16 title-winners from 1991 through 2006 wielded no more than one senior among its top seven scorers. Bad news for Louisville and Duke.

Don’t count on freshmen though – Only three teams led by a freshman in scoring have won a national championship: Utah in 1944 (Arnie Ferrin), Syracuse in 2003 (Carmelo Anthony) and Kentucky last year (Anthony Davis). Sorry Kansas, UNLV and UCLA.

A top-four seed is bound to slip up –  If you don’t have a team seeded No. 13 or lower winning a game, you’re banking on an unprecedented tournament. The top-four seeds in each region haven’t collectively survived the opening round since the seeding process started in 1979.

Lucky No. 12? – A No. 12 has defeated a No. 5 in 22 of the past 24 tournaments. What’s more impressive, a 12-seed has reached the Sweet 16 more frequently than a 7-seed since 1985. In five consecutive tournaments from 1990 to 1994, a No. 12 advanced to the regional semis, and two of the five schools surged one round further. Given this year’s seedings and pairings, buy stock in at least one such team.

Don’t outdo yourself – If your bracket looks too creative and far-reaching, revise. The lowest seed to reach the Final Four is a No. 11, accomplished only three times: by LSU (1986), George Mason (2006) and VCU (2011). Parity does not call for parody.

Coaches matter – Tread carefully with coaches who are Final Four virgins. Coaches with previous Final Four experience have taken home 12 of the last 13 trophies and 22 of the past 27. Buyer beware: Gonzaga’s Mark Few, Marquette’s Buzz Williams and New Mexico’s Steve Alford.

So do their names – Since 1991, the winning coach’s first name has been either three or four letters long (provided you ignore nicknames like “Billy” for Florida’s Donovan). That bodes well for all four No. 1 seeds (coached by Rick, Bill, Tom and Mark) and all four No. 2s (hello Mike, John, Jim and Thad). Bad news again, however, for No. 3 New Mexico and Steve Alford. Favor conciseness wherever possible.

Be wary of the MWC – The Mountain West Conference, the nation’s top RPI league this season, has underperformed relative to seeding more than any other conference over the last decade. Of course, the league hasn’t fielded a cast of representatives nearly this strong before.

NBA talent is indicative – Of the last 24 tournament champs, 22 featured two or more future first-round NBA draft picks. Indiana (Oladipo, Zeller), Michigan (Burke, Robinson, Hardaway) Oklahoma State (Smart, Brown) and Kansas (McLemore, Withey) are the four schools stocked with two or more likely first-round picks in this year’s draft alone. Arizona, Duke, Louisville, Michigan State, North Carolina, Ohio State, Syracuse and UCLA also own several future first-rounders.

Burger Boys deliver titles – Of the past 33 titlists, 32 boasted at least one McDonald’s High School All-American. The top-four seeds in this year’s field without one: Gonzaga, Georgetown, Marquette, Miami, Michigan, New Mexico and Saint Louis.

Have faith in KenPom – You don’t have to sanctify advanced stats, or even like them, but you ought to pay heed to certain data if you want to win your bracket. The past ten champions finished in the Top 20 of Ken Pomeroy’s offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. Six tournament invitees currently meet that criteria: Florida, Gonzaga, Indiana, Louisville, Ohio State and Pittsburgh. Duke, Miami and Syracuse narrowly missed the cut. Since 2003, 80-percent of all Final Four teams ranked in the top-20 in defensive efficiency. Pomeroy’s ratings system has correctly predicted the champion in four of the last five and six of the last eight years.