2013 NCAA Tournament: Ranking the Sweet 16 Teams 1-16
1. Louisville
Louisville at peak performance is the closest imitation of a bona fide great team in the college game. Russ-diculous is playing the best ball of his career, Montrezl Harrell has blossomed into a fearsome beast and Peyton Siva looks comfortable again in his homely tournament environment. When Luke Hancock is hitting outside shots, Gorgui Dieng is collecting the leftovers around the rim and the sophomore duo of Chane Behanan and Wayne Blackshear (both breakout stars during last year’s tournament) are filling in the gaps, the Cardinals are unvanquishable.
A quick word of caution: Louisville does have a habit of looking better (i.e., flashier) than everybody in their wins because of their knack for racking up style points. Louisville’s A-game is better than all others — owed largely to the team’s game-changing, full-court defense — but that’s not to say Rick Pitino’s squad is any less likely to slip up when bringing its C-game. Although the Cards can’t lose playing their A-game, they can with anything short of it.
2. Duke
In restoring the “D” in “Duke,” the Blue Devils have resuscitated championship hopes left for dead during the two-month absence of Ryan Kelly. Coach K’s assembly is back to playing the defense that won the program its fourth national title in 2010. Creighton will vouch. The Blue Devils limited the Blue Jays — which averaged 75.4 points per game on the season — to a season-low 50 points on Sunday.
Provided enough rest, the offense shouldn’t be a limiting factor for Duke, which wielded one of the nation’s most prolific and efficient scoring attacks during the regular season. Rasheed Sulaimon has rediscovered his mojo and Amile Jefferson, if given the opportunity at the 4 in lieu of Josh Hairston, is another freshman capable of providing a spark off the bench. On short rest, pressing questions remain, like how Seth Curry, hobbled by flaring leg problems all season, would respond in a potential Elite Eight game against Louisville’s relentless press.
The elephant in the room dictating Duke’s tournament future: Kelly must hit shots. Since turning in a mythical 36-point performance in his return against Miami, the senior stretch-4 is shooting just 2-of-17 from behind the arc.
3. Florida
Challenge their mental toughness and late-game execution, but don’t lump the quality of their roster into your criticism. No, the Gators haven’t won a game by single-digits all season (0-6 in such games). They may not have to if they keep up this torrid pace. Billy Donovan’s team has waltzed through the NCAA tournament to reach this point, cruising past Northwestern State before turning up the pressure against Minnesota in a never-in-doubt thumping.
In two early tournament games, Florida has already proven why these Gators are still a formidable beast. They held the nation’s highest-scoring offense (Northwestern State) to 47 points, then turned around and brandished their potent offense against Minnesota, shooting a tick less than 57-percent from the field. Florida remaining a KenPom data champ, leading the tempo-free ratings system thanks to the nation’s second most efficient defense and third most efficient offense.
Think of the Gators as a hybrid of Louisville’s swarming defense and Michigan’s high-octane O. If they can stop executing in crunch time like Grambling State, this is a squad that should get over the Elite Eight hump once and for all.
4. Michigan State
Forget Saint Patrick’s Day or changing weather patterns. The only clue necessary to know it’s March is a Spartans team rounding into tip-top, championship-level form. Tom Izzo’s army is grateful for the end of conference play. After finishing 3-4 in its last seven games against Big Ten competition, Michigan State is back to punishing non-league opponents with a level of physicality few schools foreign to the style can match.
The Spartans have been far from consistently dominant thus far, having sat on a cushiony second-half lead against Valparaiso before stumbling in the first half against mistake-prone Memphis. But in the two halves where Michigan State has stepped on its opponent’s throat, Sparty has looked the part of a team for which no prey is too big. Maybe all that intra-team fighting (Nix vs. Dawson at the hotel, Appling vs. Nix in the huddle on Saturday) was beneficial after all.
When the rubber meets the road, will Branden Dawson step up? He has a favorable size edge on Friday against Duke’s Rasheed Sulaimon. More importantly, will Keith Appling’s bum shoulder cooperate? The Spartans cannot survive the gauntlet of the Midwest Region with their point guard at anything less than full functionality.