2013 NCAA Tournament: Ranking the Sweet 16 Teams 1-16
5. Miami
Skeptics will understandably balk at the close, missed-call-aided finish in Austin against Illinois. Consider it a blessing in disguise. The Canes, light on tournament experience despite a veteran-lined roster, got their requisite, tournament-christening “close call” game out of the way early. The least desirable scenario for Jim Larranaga’s team is entering a potential Elite Eight showdown with Indiana having not experienced a nip-and-tuck, adversity-filled game. Moot concern, now. The Canes are riding high into the Sweet 16, demonstrably confident in their ability to pull out a win when the chips are down.
The quality of the team and its regular season body of work was never in question. Miami has lost only twice all season at full strength. Now we know the Hurricanes can handle any kind of storm. Just a sophomore, Shane Larkin is a big-game player willing and able to take (and make) pivotal shots. Silent assassin Rion Brown has been a windfall off the bench with his hot-shooting, serving as a cruel reminder to future opponents how productive Miami’s role players are.
Reggie Johnson’s absence for the regional semis and finals hurts the team’s depth, but this isn’t last year’s Reggie. If it was, the Canes would be toting the No. 1 overall seed.
6. Ohio State
Weighing competition (which bumps Louisville down a degree), this is the hottest team still dancing, winners of ten straight games — seven away from home — against the who’s who of the Big Ten. Junior leaders Deshaun Thomas and Aaron Craft have picked up the slack as inconsistencies in the sophomore class, short of LaQuinton Ross, persevere. The second-year rising star delivered ten consecutive points to pad Ohio State’s second-half lead on Sunday, providing the cushion necessary to stave off Iowa State’s late charge.
For the first time since a no-show in Madison, the heralded Buckeyes defense struggled on Sunday in keeping an opponent off the scoreboard. The Cyclones shot 48-percent (12-of-25) from 3-point range and dominated the boards with a relatively average rebounding team. While Ohio State’s next opponent (Arizona) won’t provide the same deep shooting threats, the Wildcats are a much stronger offensive rebounding team, which could pose problems for the Buckeyes inside.
Thomas and Craft have been splendid, but Thad Matta will need more from his supporting cast to survive a far stiffer test in Los Angeles. Unlike Iowa State, Arizona actually defends.
7. Michigan
Shy of Louisville, there wasn’t a more impressive opening-week team than the Wolverines, who scissored through stiff competition en route to Arlington. The kicker: Naismith player of the year finalist Trey Burke hasn’t been the one powering the attack. Tim Hardaway Jr., who doesn’t get nearly the national attention he deserves, has linked up with fellow NBA son Glenn Robinson Jr. to pace the Maize n Blue.
Michigan turned heads with its onslaught of popular Final Four dark horse VCU. Be careful not to get too carried away with the performance though. The Wolverines were tailored to beat VCU’s extended ball pressure, parlaying the Rams’ full-court D into easy transition buckets. John Beilein’s team totes above-average athletes at every position, has two capable ball-handlers and the nation’s best point guard to break the press. Kansas, with its stout, pack-it-in half-court defense, won’t be so charitable.
The wildcard for Michigan the rest of the way: frosh big man Mitch McGary. Was his 21 point effort (10-11 FG) a sign of a steadily emerging freshman or merely further validation of a favorable match-up?
8. Indiana
Despite receiving preferential treatment from voters and undue praise from confirmation bias casualties, the Hoosiers haven’t looked the part of the nation’s No. 1 team all season long. Indiana played a light interleague slate, never beating a non-conference opponent that survived the tournament’s opening weekend. The Hoosiers finished an uninspiring 9-6 against the RPI Top 50 and were a few bounces away (vs. Georgetown, @ Michigan State, @ Michigan) from entering the class of “good, but hardly any different” teams.
Sunday’s round of 32 performance versus Temple didn’t serve the Hoosier image any better. Indiana rode its defense past the athletic, physically imposing, but shooting defunct Owls, thanks to the stellar late-game play of Victor Oladipo and the magnificent 0-12 shooting performance by Temple’s second-leading scorer (Scootie Randall). If Randall wasn’t IU’s second best player in Dayton, the Hoosiers’ run would be over before the AP poll had another chance to vote them No. 1.
Pressing questions for IU moving forward: Does Tom Crean continue to dig too far into his bench? The cutoff should be after Remy Abell and short of Jeremy Hollowell, who hasn’t contributed since November. What will Cody Zeller offer against some of the longest and most athletic frontcourts he’ll have seen all season? Zeller has struggled scoring when he catches the ball on the lower block, particularly against bigger and more athletic pivots. He’ll see more of the kind against Syracuse and potentially Miami, which places the burden on the preseason All-American to figure out new and creative ways to score.
The biggest tipping point of all for IU: guard play. The Hoosiers got just five points from the combination of Yogi Ferrell and Jordan Hulls over the weekend. That won’t cut it this week.