Sweet 16 Preview: Duke vs. Michigan State, Midwest Regional Semifinals

Tip-time (EST): 9:45 p.m. (CBS)

Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis

All-time series: 7-2 Duke, 1-1 in the NCAA tournament. Duke took the last meeting overall in December of last season. Behind 26 points (six 3-pointers) from former Duke sharpshooter Andre Dawkins, the Blue Devils topped the Spartans by five in a game that wasn’t as close as the score suggests. Michigan State upset top-seeded Duke the last time these two teams linked up in the NCAA tournament, a 78-68 win in the 2005 Sweet 16.

Duke tournament history. This marks the 37th NCAA tournament appearance for Duke, which boasts a 98-32 all-time record in the event. The ACC heavyweight is 81-24 under Mike Krzyzewski, marking the most tournament wins by any coach in Division I history. The Blue Devils stroll into their 27th Sweet 16, 21st under Coach K and fourth in the last five years. Duke is 18-8 all-time in the regional semifinals, but has slipped up in the round in four of its last five trips. 

How Duke got here: Seth Curry and Mason Plumlee teamed up for 49 points to power Duke past Albany in the second round. The Blue Devils then turned to their defense two days later, holding Creighton to a season-low 50 points to coast past the Blue Jays in an unforeseen defensive struggle. In so doing, Krzyzewski’s team stifled Doug McDermott, holding the Naismith award finalist to 4-of-16 shooting from the floor.

Michigan State tournament history. Tom Izzo’s Spartans are making their 16th consecutive NCAA tournament appearance and fifth trip to the Sweet 16 in the last six seasons. Izzo is 7-3 in Sweet 16 games as head coach in East Lansing, including five wins as the lower seed. Izzo has the fourth best active winning streak in the Big Dance, trailing only Krzyzewski, Bill Self and Roy Williams.

How Michigan State got here: The Spartans rolled through Valparaiso and Memphis into the regional semis, riding a relentless, take-no-prisoners defense.  Opponents are shooting just 32-percent against Sparty in the tournament, the second best mark of any team still standing.

Key match-up: Finesse vs. Physicality. More than any one individual match-up (coaching or personnel), this game will be won by the contrast in styles. Duke wants to run a smooth, crisp offensive game with as little physical resistance as possible. Michigan State wants to bloody you up and impose its will inside. How the game is called (tight or loose) will play a big role in which way the game swings.

Duke key player: Ryan Kelly. The senior stretch-4 has lost the outside touch since his 36-point masterpiece against Miami in his first game back from a serious foot injury. Kelly has since hit just 2 of his 17 shots from behind the arc. For Duke to win the all-important frontcourt battle, Kelly’s shot must be on point. Stretching out Adreian Payne onto the perimeter is only half the battle. For a team that rebounds as well as Michigan State, Duke must convert on its first-chance scoring opportunities. If Kelly hits shots, Duke likely moves on. If he doesn’t, the Blue Devils likely go home.

Michigan State key player: Branden Dawson. The sophomore forward will have a decided physical advantage over Rasheed Sulaimon, owning two inches and 45 points on the Duke freshman guard. While Dawson will have his hands full on the  defensive end staying in front of Sulaimon, he must take advantage of his physical tools against Duke’s undersized three-guard lineup. Dawson has quietly been limited to single-digit scoring outputs in each of his last ten games, an alarming trend for a team that counts on his virile strength. Keith Appling drew most of the criticism during Michigan State’s three-game losing streak — and the health of his shoulder is a legitimate concern — but the Michigan State combo-forward was no less responsible.