National Championship Game: Louisville v. Michigan Preview

Tip-time (EST): 9:23 p.m. (CBS)

Location: Georgia Dome, Atlanta

Spread: Louisville -3.5

All-time series: Louisville 2-0. The two schools last met in 1978.

What’s at stake? Rick Pitino is seeking to become the first coach in college basketball history to win a national title at two different schools. He’ll be the last, if he pulls through, to do so with two bitter in-state rivals (Kentucky and Louisville).

Miscellaneous. This is the first national time game absent a Nike-sponsored school since 1939. Louisville and Michigan are both Adidas schools. Although Nike wasn’t officially trademarked until 1978, all championship games before then featured at least one present-day Nike affiliate.

Key match-up: Gorgui Dieng vs. Mitch McGary.

McGary has dazzled more than any other freshman in the NCAA tournament, averaging 16 points and 11.6 rebounds per game over the five-game run. The star Wolverines frosh showed off his passing skills on Saturday with a six-assist performance in the national semifinal — this, just one week after racking up five steals in an Elite Eight win over Florida. McGary had his best overall game of his career (25 points, 14 rebounds) against Kansas shot-blocking maestro Jeff Withey, the best defensive center he’s faced all season.

Gorgui Dieng is no slouch himself. A potential lottery pick in the upcoming NBA draft, Dieng has diversified his offensive game since returning from a broken left wrist. He added a reliable 15-foot jumper, a pump fake and a drop-step to his post repertoire and shored up his footwork. Dieng is both sound defensively and gifted athletically, possessing the length, verticality and shot-blocking instincts to neutralize the shorter McGary. But he’s also bouncing back from a scoreless performance against Wichita State in the national semifinal, having run into foul in each of his last two games. If McGary can get the rangy Louisville pivot into foul trouble early, advantage Michigan. If not, Dieng is the menacing presence that could wreak havoc inside on both ends of the floor.

The winner of this match-up should have the inside track on the national title.

Unsung heroes. Tim Henderson and Montrezl Harrell vs. Spike Albrecht and Caris LeVert. Forget Peyton Siva and Trey Burke (what a match-up that should be though). Louisville is still alive because of the play of a walk-on and a heralded freshman, while Michigan rode the timely shooting of a pair of freshman reserves in its win over Syracuse. In the undercard of the Final Four, Henderson dropped consecutive second-half 3s to dig Louisville out of its largest deficit of the season. Harrell, meanwhile, hit all four of his shot attempts to prop the Cardinals, who turned to the physical freshman in lieu of the foul-saddled Dieng. In the nightcap, Michigan received unexpected contributions from its thinly-used bench. Caris LeVert scored eight points, including a pair of momentous first-half 3s, while backup point guard Spike Albrecht sunk a pair of treys himself. All told, Michigan reserves combined for 21 points in the national semifinal, the team’s highest bench scoring total of the year. Untold heroes have a habit of influencing big-time college basketball games, and the these four players — who have already left their mark on the Final Four — are the top candidates to seize the moment.

Pro day. Get familiar with the names of the players in tonight’s game. You’ll see nine or ten of them again in the professional ranks someday. Yes, pro talent DOES matter in determining college champs. Of the last 25 national champions, 24 have had at least two future NBA players factoring into the rotation. Future pros playing tonight:

Gorgui Dieng (Louisville; potential lottery pick in the upcoming draft)
Montrezl Harrell (Louisville; future lottery pick)
Chane Behanan (Louisville; future second-rounder)
Russ Smith (Louisville; future NBA reserve)
Peyton Siva (Louisville; if not Europe, will likely earn an NBA summer league tryout)
Trey Burke (Michigan; future lottery pick)
Tim Hardaway Jr. (Michigan; future second rounder)
Glenn Robinson III (Michigan; future first rounder)
Mitch McGary (Michigan; future first rounder)
Nik Stauskas (Michigan; future Europe player or summer league invitee)

Where the game is won/lost: Michigan’s press break vs. Louisville press defense.

Louisville is the best ball poaching team in the country. Michigan is the  best at ball security. Hello, contrast of strengths.

The Wolverines sport the lowest turnover rate in the country, committing giveaways on just 12.5-percent of their total possessions. Against Virginia Commonwealth’s staunch full-court press — the closest imitation of Louisville’s amoebic zone press — Michigan coughed the ball up just 12 times. The combination of Trey Burke’s poise, the athleticism in the backcourt and the availability of multiple ball-handlers render the Wolverines a perfect match for breaking the press. Of course, Michigan struggled against Syracuse’s extended pressure D at the end of its national semifinal, committing three turnovers, nearly a fourth, and having to spend two timeouts on stalled in-bound plays.

Louisville’s press devastates opponents in vicious cycles. The Cardinals will trap in multiple ways, varying backcourt and frontcourt schemes to keep teams on their toes. On one set-up, the Cardinals assign the man guarding the in-bounder to peel off and trap in the corner on any in-bound passes in that direction. In another play, Louisville waits until the opponent crosses mid-court, then rushes a second and third defender at the ball-handler, using the half-court line as an end line. For Michigan to effectively beat the press, as Wichita State did so effectively on Saturday, Trey Burke will have to combat all different ambush maneuvers.

Key of the game: How the game is called. Louisville likes to hand-grab on the full-court press, and for the most part has gotten away with it this tournament. If the game is called tightly, especially in the backcourt on reaches, arm-bars and ball-denial, edge Michigan. The Wolverines, meanwhile, have had a propensity to embellish charge calls and chicken-wing aggressive defenders on ball pressure. If the block/charge calls are butchered as they have been all season, and if Michigan is whistled for the ticky-tack contact it got away with on Saturday, the Cardinals should have the leg-up.

This has been one of the most egregiously officiated tournament ever, capped off by one of the worst officiated Final Four of all-time (not just the controversial end-of-game calls either). To suggest officiating won’t play a role in tonight’s outcome would be disingenuous. Especially bad officiating has plagued the sport since November. Why stop now?