AAC Preview: #3 Cincinnati Bearcats

2013-14 Season Results: 27-7, 15-3 conference record. T-1st in the AAC, 57-61 loss to Harvard in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.

Key Losses: Sean Kilpatrick (graduation), Justin Jackson (graduation), Titus Rubles (graduation), Jermaine Lawrence (transfer to Manhattan).

Key Returners: F Shaquille Thomas, F Jermaine Sanders, G Troy Caupain, G Ge’Lawn Guyn.

2014 Recruiting Class: Gary Clark (ESPN 4-star, #23 PF), Quadri Moore (ESPN 3-star, #33 C), Coreontae DeBerry (JuCo, C), Octavius Ellis (JuCo, PF), Farad Cobb (JuCo, PG).

Sean Kilpatrick was a consensus 2nd Team All-American last season, averaging an AAC-leading 20.6 points per game. Sean Kilpatrick is also gone from Cincinnati, the senior having moved on to the NBA D-League. Suffice to say, Cincinnati is entering 2014-15 having lost quite a lot from a team that finished tied for first in the AAC the previous season.

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The Bearcats’ top three leading scorers have moved on, leaving a big hole for head coach Mick Cronin to fill. It’s near impossible to replace a player like Kilpatrick, especially when considering his leadership role on the team, but Cronin has an impressive incoming class, highlighted by two talented freshman. 4-star PF Gary Clark and 3-star C Quadri Moore will help add size in the middle for the Bearcats while hopefully replacing the nearly 39 points per game the Bearcats are losing to graduation. Retuning forwards Shaquille Thomas and Jermaine Sanders need to embrace their new leadership roles on the team as they will enter the 2014-15 season as the Bearcats’ most experienced players. Guards Troy Caupain and Ge’Lawn Guyn both averaged over 19 minutes per game last season, so look to those numbers to steadily increase as they will be called on to lead Cincinnati’s backcourt.

The good news for a team losing so much on offense is that Cincinnati had the best defense in the AAC last season, holding opponents to just 59.7 points per game. Mick Cronin has built a defense-minded program in his time in Cincinnati, and that mindset will help keep the Bearcats competitive this upcoming season. It is far too often that an AAC team builds a guard-heavy rotation that can put up some serious points but lacks any real defensive presence, cobbling together a few 6’7″ or 6’8″ forwards to anchor their frontcourt. Cincinnati knows this and can look past it, bringing in some actual size to help their dominance on defense. Teams can score all they want, but holding a team to less than 60 points per game is a whole hell of a lot easier than having to put up 75-80 points night in and night out. Such is Mick Cronin’s philosophy – it can make for some slow, often-boring basketball, but it wins games in the end.

It’s been said many times that defense wins championships. That won’t necessarily be the case for Cincinnati in 2014-15, but I think they will settle for “defense wins double-digit conference games.” While the offense will struggle at times during the season, Mick Cronin’s defense will be there to bail out the Bearcats when need be. Don’t expect a repeat performance of last year’s 15-win team, but do expect the Bearcats to crack the top half of the conference standings come March.

Projected Finish: 3rd