Wisconsin Badgers: Who Replaces Traevon Jackson?

Wisconsin Badgers fans had an even tougher Monday than usual, as Badgers starting point guard Traevon Jackson‘s fractured right foot will require surgery. The exact timetable isn’t set in stone, but Jackson will begin rehab in 2-3 weeks and is expected to miss 6 weeks total.

Jackson’s fracture added injury to insult during Wisconsin’s loss to Big Ten cellar dweller Rutgers, and the Badgers will need to replace his steady hand quickly to avoid a seeding unrepresentative of their quality come Selection Sunday.

Bo Ryan, for his part, doesn’t seem too concerned:

While the quote reads like typically banal coach-speak, Bo Ryan’s program has long operated with a “next man up” ethos. Ryan and his Badgers are probably far more comfortable moving forward without their starting point guard than most programs would be.

Bronson Koenig figures to get the first attempt at the spot, and the Wisconsin native has the pedigree to to fill Jackson’s shoes. Koenig wasn’t a highly ranked recruit, but the sophomore guard chose the Badgers over Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia.

Koenig has already shown some ability as a creator, boasting per-minute assist numbers nearly identical to Jackson’s. Koenig has also taken care of the ball extremely well, averaging less than one half of a turnover per contest. Part of that may be because he did not attack the rim as much as Jackson did up thus far, but Koenig is no slouch off the bounce.

It is unclear whether Koenig’s addition to the starting lineup will improve or hurt the Badgers’ outside shooting. Wisconsin’s ability to consistently trot out a lineup of five guys who can knock down threes is arguably the most important part of their success, and Koenig has outshot Jackson thus far this season.

Jackson’s career three-point numbers follow a strange trend. His freshman and junior seasons, he shot nearly 40% from deep, making his threes very efficient shots. In his sophomore season, and so far this season, however, Jackson has been below 30%. Koenig is sitting at about 32% this year after shooting 33% from deep in his freshman campaign, while�shooting the three at a very similar clip to Jackson per-minute.

Koenig is a guy who just seems like a better shooter than the number indicates, but the eye test won’t help the Badgers in their quest to be seeded on the top line. Koenig will need to continue shooting as well as he is, or improve his numbers, despite the added responsibility of running the point from the opening tip.

Truthfully, the Badgers likely won’t miss a beat with Koenig in the starting lineup. Koenig has both talent and experience, and while he isn’t quite the scorer Jackson is, he is a quality point guard. Where they may run into problems, however, is when Koenig has to sit.

The options to back Koenig up going forward appear to be Josh Gasser and Zak Showalter, and both present some potential problems.

Gasser is the Badgers’ best shooter, and an experienced player. But he is best suited to playing off the ball, and putting it in his hands going forward may make it harder for him to get as many looks from deep as Bo Ryan would like. Gasser also already logs about 30 minutes a night, the most of any Badgers backcourt player. Adding backup point guard to his already considerable workload may be too much.

Showalter is largely an unknown quantity. The former walk-on has barely played this season, but there is some video evidence that he is a seriously scary athlete.

It isn’t helpful analysis to tell you trust Bo Ryan, but the guy has been running a highly successful system of seemingly interchangeable parts for years now. In a weak Big Ten, Wisconsin almost certainly will be able to replace Jackson well enough to weather the storm and avoid a catastrophic losing streak.

It is much less likely, however, that the Badgers will be able to continue playing at a Top 5 level. As stated earlier, Koenig is unlikely to slow down the Badgers too much. He was already playing the point for 20 minutes per game to Jackson’s 27. It’s going to take expanding the rotation, or stretching Josh Gasser really thin, for Wisconsin to continue playing like a team worthy of a top seed. It’s a big ask, but if anyone is prepared to do either of those thing successfully, it’s Bo Ryan.

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