ACC: 3 Things To Watch For Wednesday Night
As the top-heavy ACC draws to a close, bubble teams and elites are both jockeying for coveted tournament positions. The nation’s best power conference looks to bring six or seven teams into the NCAA Tournament- the identities (and seeds) of which will begin to be determined tonight. Three games, in particular will be crucial in setting the brackets for Greensboro and the Big Dance.
1. Battle of the Bubble – Miami @ Pittsburgh
Though Pitt’s weekend flop at Wake Forest is close to a resume killer, their tourney hopes could really be put under with a home loss against fellow bubbler Miami. The Canes didn’t help their case with a loss Saturday to Carolina, but it didn’t necessarily void their at-large chances. Both teams are 3-3 in their last six games thus enter this contest with a must-win mentality. While both probably sit on the wrong side of the bubble, Miami is closer by virtue of their stronger win (at Duke). Unfortunately the Panthers don’t really have a strong enough schedule remaining to get them back into the at-large picture, (vs Miami, @ FSU) so they will likely have to do work in Greensboro to sneak back in.
Entering this tilt the Canes are a bit banged up, as Angel Rodriguez is listed as questionable with a sprained wrist. Lately, Miami’s most significant contributions have come from Sheldon McClellan (18.4 PPG, 53.3 G%) and Tonye Jekiri who leads the ACC in rebounding. Pitt will need to rely upon forwards Michael Young and Jamel Artis to score along with winning the rebounding battle to hold off the Hurricanes. In all reality, the team on the losing end of this match-up will likely have to roll deep in the ACC Tournament to have any shot at an at-large bid. The winner will continue skirt the bubble heading into the final weekend.
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2. Battle for the Three Seed – Notre Dame @ Louisville
A lot rides on this late-season top-twenty match-up when it comes to seeding in the ACC and NCAA tournament. If Louisville (23-6, 11-5 ACC) wins out, a tall task with Virginia coming to town Saturday, they will be awarded the three seed in the ACC tourney. As long as they don’t kill over in the ACC tournament, a semifinal berth in Greenboro should secure them a three seed in the NCAA tournament. Though it’s unsure whether the Cards will be able to continue their post-Chris Jones positive momentum, many thought they wouldn’t even be in such a position a week ago. Again the elevated play of guards Quentin Snider and Terry Rozier on both sides of the ball will be crucial for the Cards’ chances.
Notre Dame (24-5, 12-4 ACC) currently sits as the three seed in the standings, and a win would certainly guarantee that position in Greensboro. After a hot start (20-2) the Irish have cooled off significantly in February (4-3 in their last 7). Yes, Jerian Grant can really get to the rim, but will he be enough against what is typically a stout defensive unit? The Irish will not only need to shoot well in the KFC Yum! Center and but will need to curtail the production of Rozier and Harrell to win on the road. Regardless of how many overtimes this one goes into, the winner will be on the path to a three seed in Greensboro and in the Big Dance, while the loser eyes more of a four/five fate in both tournaments.
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3. Avoid Looking Ahead – Wake Forest @ Duke
A Mike Krzyzewski team is not often caught looking ahead to greater contests this late in the season. Even with a season-ending road trip to Carolina looming Saturday, the Blue Devils (26-3, 13-3 ACC) should still have enough left in the tank to steamroll the hapless Deacons at home. Wake Forest (13-16, 5-11 ACC) did keep things close in their first meeting in Winston-Salem and has made strides during Danny Manning’s first year, but they have absolutely no answer for Jahlil Okafor. With much of Wake’s defense keying on the freshman POY candidate, Duke’s guards should dice them up.
With the ACC’s two seed on lock, would this win secure the Blue Devils a one seed in the NCAA tournament? Probably not. A win over Carolina Saturday would move them closer, but Duke still sits behind Virginia in the pecking order. They will need UVa to either lose to Louisville this weekend or stumble in the ACC tournament to surpass them. Regardless of the Hoos’ fate, Duke could seize a one seed if they win out or maybe just make the ACC tournament finals, but even that will most certainly be no easy task. This daunting final stretch begins with taking care of Wake tonight.