Big East Tournament Preview: Will ‘Nova Stay Atop?
It was once the greatest conference tournament in all of college basketball, but even in its current incarnation, the Big East Tournament emanating from Madison Square Garden is one of the marquee attractions in sports. This year, a 10-team field that includes six NCAA Tournament-bound programs will vie for the title of Big East Champ. From Thursday afternoon until Saturday night, the eyes of the college basketball world will fixate on New York City, and that’s how things should be. Here’s a breakdown of what you can expect to see later this week at the world’s most famous arena.
The Favorite
The Villanova Wildcats are the nation’s quietest legitimate Final Four contender. After realignment turned the Big East into a basketball only conference (and a television deal with FOX made Big East games impossible for casual fans to find on TV), attentiveness towards the conference waned. However, the talent level at the top of the conference has remained elite, and it has been the Wildcats that have carried that banner so well.
This year, Jay Wright’s team is in contention for a top seed, and the nation is finally taking notice of the Wildcats’ stretch of dominance. However, their lack of postseason success has put a damper on their success in the new Big East. Despite back-to-back regular season titles, Nova failed to capture the Big East Tournament title last year (won by Providence), and their NCAA Tournament run fell flat as well with a loss to UConn in the Round of 32. Now, with a 1-seed on the line, the Wildcats will be expected to roll through the field on their way to a postseason title that could serve as the precursor to a deep run in the Big Dance.
The Contenders
After Villanova, two teams stand out as stiff challengers for the title.
The Butler Bulldogs made a run to the top of the standings this season that has been just short of a miracle. The Bulldogs were expected to be a cellar dweller in the conference this year (as they were last year). The narrative read that such a quick transition from the Horizon League to the Big East (with an A-10 pit stop in between) was too much for the program to handle, but Butler made sure the nation knew their bounce back was imminent by beating North Carolina early in the season. Once Big East play began, the Butler Way represented a model of consistency.
Their 12-6 record conference record is impressive, but it’s worth noting that the Bulldogs were 1-5 against the three teams that joined them in the conference’s top four, with only a win against Providence to show for their efforts. Butler’s consistency has translated to them beating the teams they should beat, but almost assuredly losing to the teams that they look up to in the standings.
The Goergetown Hoyas are the team that Villanova must respect as their most clear and present danger. The Wildcats have lost twice this season. Their first defeat was an awkward aberration at Seton Hall, but their second loss was a 78-58 dismantling at the hands of the Hoyas. Only Georgetown has exhibited the ability to humble the Cats. Therefore, if Villanova is going to lose in New York, the Hoyas will likely be the team to put them out.
The Sleepers
Three more tourney bound teams will be New York entertaining legitimate dreams of getting hot during the right weekend and stealing the tournament away from the more likely winners that were previously mentioned.
The Xavier Musketeers will be the only team in New York who could possibly pay dire consequences for a poor performance. The Muskies should be in the field, but if results elsewhere shrink the bubble, Xavier could be forced to sweat out Selection Sunday — or the X could make a major run in the Garden. The bracket is favorable, as Chris Mack’s team wouldn’t see Villanova until the final. On the way to the championship round, Xavier would likely see Butler and then Georgetown, two teams that the X went 3-1 against during the season.
The case for the Providence Friars to be considered a conference tournament sleeper is stellar. For starters, the Friars won this tournament last year, and return the best players from that team. One of those players is the conference’s player of the year, Kris Dunn. Another one is the conference’s most devastating scorer, LaDontae Henton. With such a potent duo leading their charge, Providence will be a threat to steal another title even despite opening the tournament against a St. John’s team that has already beaten them twice this year.
Anytime an NCAA Tournament team plays a conference tournament on its home court, they must be considered a threat to win. That’s the situation that faces this year’s edition of the St. John’s Red Storm. With a bid to the Big Dance essentially sealed, the Johnnies will have their sites firmly set on making a return to the conference’s ultimate showcase, the Big East championship game. The Johnnies have a tough road. They must beat a good Providence team for a third time, and then wrestle with Villanova. However, if Steve Lavin’s team finds a way to play on Saturday — there’s no way they’ll lose.
Projected Results
OPENING ROUND
Seton Hall over Creighton
DePaul over Marquette
FIRST ROUND
Villanova over Seton Hall
St. John’s over Providence
Xavier over Butler
Georgetown over DePaul
SEMIFINALS
Villanova over St. John’s
Xavier over Georgetown
FINALS
Xavier over Villanova