ACC Tournament: Three Things We Learned From The Quarterfinals
1. Bubble Picture Still The Same
The ACC’s three-team bubble race has seen its contestants whittled down to one in the previous week. Pittsburgh’s (19-14, 8-10 ACC) loss to NC State in the second round virtually sealed their NIT fate, while the Wolfpack (20-13, 10-8 ACC) are likely safely in on the virtue of their strong wins over Duke, Louisville and North Carolina. Their 77-53 blowout loss against Duke won’t likely affect their seeding- they will likely fall into the 8/9 category.
But Miami (21-12, 10-8 ACC) will have an uneasy wait to Selection Sunday after falling short to Notre Dame (27-5, 14-4 ACC) following a 20-point second half comeback. Now the Canes find themselves in the same place when they entered Greensboro- on the cusp of the last four in and the next four out. The Canes will have rooting interests against teams in the Big Ten (Indiana) and the American (Temple) to hopefully sneak into the at-large picture. Jim Larranaga’s squad is last four in at best.
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2. North Carolina’s Stock Slightly Rises, Louisville’s Slightly Falls
Carolina’s 70-60 win over Louisville really doesn’t affect either teams’ tourney stock immediately- both teams hovered around the four/five seed line- and the Heels’ win doesn’t likely change that for now. However, UNC (23-10, 11-7 ACC) now has a lot to gain in their semifinal match-up against Virginia. A upset and berth in the finals would likely have them playing for a three-seed along with an ACC tournament title. If Carolina can continue to rebound well and have their backcourt stay hot, they will be a darkhorse Final Four contender.
Louisville (24-8, 12-6 ACC), on the other hand, has to be frustrated after a huge win over Virginia last Saturday. Whatever momentum the Cards had is now halted, at least until their NCAA second-round match-up. Entering the game Louisville was nearly an across-the-board four seed. Now there is likely no combination of losses in the remaining conference tournament games to get the Cards’ back to that line. They will likely be a five-seed in the Big Dance with that all-too-dangerous match-up against a First Four winner.
3. Duke and Virginia On Pace For a Season-Defining Rematch
Duke (29-3, 15-3 ACC) is nearly universally touted as the second-best team in the nation, yet is the second-place team in their conference. That has to mean something to Virginia (29-2, 16-2 ACC), with one of their two losses coming to the Blue Devils in January. Though it’s a touch absurd to say a 29-2 team will be playing for respect, if Virginia meets Duke in the ACC finals, the Cavaliers will most certainly have something to prove.
Both teams are likely looking at one seeds regardless of how the ACC tournament plays out. Still, a rematch between the top two teams in the conference would be telling as to whom the best team in the ACC really is. Based upon resume, Duke fits the bill right now. But the Hoos will be seeking two consecutive ACC championships atop a regular season title, a rare accomplishment for teams outside of Tobacco Road. In terms of bracket placement, an early loss could drop one of them to the fourth number one seed. This is a scenario both might want to avoid if they want to stay away from Kentucky until the championship.