2015 NCAA Tournament: East Region Sunday Preview

The East region was turned upside down last night with the surprising loss of #1 seed Villanova to #9 seed NC State. Today offers three intriguing match-ups with #2 seed Virginia squaring off against #7 seed Michigan State, #3 seed Oklahoma taking on #11 seed Dayton and #4 seed Louisville battling against #5 Northern Iowa. Here are some things to look for in today’s match-ups as the East bracket is suddenly wide-open.

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12:10 PM (EST) Virginia Cavaliers (2) vs Michigan State Spartans (7)

Jim Nantz, Bill Rafferty and Grant Hill will be on the call in this interesting match-up of ACC and Big Ten powerhouses. Virginia is looking to avenge last season’s heart-breaking loss to the Spartans in the Sweet 16. The Cavaliers are once again the favorite and, with Villanova out of the picture, have a clear path to the Final Four in Indianapolis.

This game will be much like last year’s tournament game. It will be a knockdown, drag out, defensive-minded fight. Both teams play similar styles in motion offense and tough, man-to-man defense. Virginia’s defensive numbers are well-known and impressive, but Michigan State’s defense has improved throughout the year. In Big Ten Conference play, the Spartans were a top four team in field goal percentage defense by allowing just over 41% field goal shooting from opponents.

To advance Virginia will need to shut down a few of Michigan State’s top players. Senior forward Brandon Dawson torched the Cavs in last season’s tournament for 24 points and 10 rebounds. He will not have the luxury of playing beside Adreian Payne, but still is dangerous on the offensive glass and getting to the foul line. Spartan leading scorer, senior guard Travis Trice, has a knack for big shots and can be deadly from three when hot. He also was third in the Big Ten in assists and dealt out six dimes in their second round win over Georgia on Friday. Finally, Virginia will need to account for junior guard Denzel Valentine, who like Trice, can be dangerous from deep.

For the Cavaliers, they will need to have big games from junior guard Malcolm Brogdon and junior forward Anthony Gill, who will need to keep the Spartans off the offensive glass. Junior guard Justin Anderson will need to continue to show signs of progression from his injury. The Belmont game on Friday was an encouraging step as the important Virginia player totaled 15 points and 5 rebounds in 26 minutes.

Despite the upset potential, Virginia will move on in a close and hard fought game. In the Sweet 16 awaits an athletic Oklahoma team or the upset-minded Dayton Flyers.

Prediction: Virginia 64, Michigan State 59

6:10 P.M (EST) Oklahoma Sooners (3) vs. Dayton Flyers (11)

The evening tip between the Sooners and Flyers is a virtual home game for the underdogs as the Columbus, OH playing site is a mere 70 miles from Dayton. The Flyers are looking to continue their Cinderella run as they handled #6 seed Providence with a second-half surge and suffocating defense on Friday. Dayton plays with toughness and great perimeter defense as they lack depth, especially in the front court with no player on their team over 6’6″. Junior forward Dyshawn Pierre has played well this season in a difficult role and put up 20 points and 9 rebounds against Providence in their second round game. He will have his hands full with the big front line of the Oklahoma Sooners, who have four players over 6’6″. Oklahoma’s best player, junior guard and Big 12 Player of the Year, Buddy Hield, will be an athletic type of player that Dayton has not seen this year. Containing him, as well as his ability to offensive rebound, will be critical if Dayton hopes to pull the upset.

The issues to look for in this game will be rebounding, turnovers and field goal percentage. Despite the double-digit victory, the Flyers were out-rebounded by the Friars 39-32 and on the offensive glass that number was 13 – 3. It is a virtual lock that Dayton will be out-rebounded in this game and needs to make up for those extra possessions through turnovers and tough defense. A way to do this is by creating turnovers and forcing bad shots. Dayton forced 16 Providence turnovers that led to some easy baskets on the other end. Dayton sophomore point guard and defensive ace Scoochie Smith will need to be disruptive and force Oklahoma turnovers. There is a possibility of this as Oklahoma ranks 124th this year in turnovers per game (12). Still, I think size and Buddy Hield will be too much for the Flyers as Dayton gets sent home and the Sooners move on to the Sweet 16.

Prediction: Oklahoma 72, Dayton 60

9:40 P.M. (EST) Louisville (4) vs. Northern Iowa (5)

The East’s selection of Sunday games concludes with a game between the Cardinals and the Panthers in Seattle, WA. This, like the Virginia-Michigan State game, will be a physical slugfest type game. The one match-up here everyone is looking to see will be Northern Iowa senior forward and Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year Seth Tuttle versus Louisville’s high-flying junior forward Montrezl Harrell. Tuttle will be charged with slowing down Harrell on the offensive glass and keeping him away from high percentage shots at the rim. Harrell will need to slow down the do-it-all Tuttle who excellently scores, rebounds and passes for the Panthers.

This game will not be the prettiest game of the tournament. Both teams will be perfectly comfortable grinding it out to scores in the low to mid 50s. I do think Louisville will try to push the tempo with its press and try to force Northern Iowa into unforced errors and easy Cardinal baskets. Northern Iowa only averages 10 turnovers a game.

The Cardinals might find more success in rebounding. Through toughness and athleticism, they remain one of the best rebounding teams in the country. Northern Iowa struggles with rebounding, with Tuttle being the only player to average more than six rebounds a game. In a game in which every possession will be critical, offensive rebounding and easy putbacks could be the difference for Louisville.

I think, ultimately, Louisville’s struggles to score will do them in as the Panthers move on to the Sweet Sixteen for the first time since 2010 in a nail biter.

Prediction: Northern Iowa 61, Louisville 58

Next: 2015 NCAA Tournament: South Region Sunday Preview