NCAA South Region: Thoughts on Duke Blue Devils vs. San Diego St.
1. Duke Blue Devil’s Offense is Peaking
In a year where the “college basketball is slow and boring” narrative has been as loud as ever, the Duke Blue Devils’ offensive decimation of San Diego State’s 4th-ranked Kenpom defense is an outlier. And in a year where excellence (Kentucky) has been accomplished on the defensive end, the Blue Devils’ offense is peaking at the right time. Their 68-49 dismantling an Aztec defense that allowed only 53.9 points per game, good for second in the nation. Jahlil Okafor’s 26 points and Justise Winslow’s 13-12 double-double proves that San Diego State was outmatched down low on both sides of the ball. This enough should make Duke favorites in Houston regardless of who emerges on the bottom half of the South bracket.
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Now, a Utah team awaits that is doing some peaking of their own. Many wrote off the Utes after slightly stumbling down the stretch and exiting early in the Pac-12 Tournament. Furthermore, their second round opponent (Stephen F. Austin) was a popular upset pick in many brackets. But now Delon Wright, Jakob Poeltl and company are here, and will not necessarily be overmatched against the Blue Devils. Utah will present a similar defensive challenge (7th Kenpom, 56.9 points allowed), so Duke will need Okafor and Winslow to have high output on both ends once more.
2. San Diego State Aztec’s Offensive Ineptitude
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On the other side of the coin, San Diego State might be the Ernest Hemingway of the “college basketball is slow and boring” narrative. This season fans have seen often highly-regarded defensive teams like SDSU, Louisville and Cincinnati be absolutely abysmal offensively. After Sunday’s game, San Diego State has proven to be the belle of those who can’t score the ball. Yes, the Aztecs did not have an answer to Duke’s size down low. But absolutely no team can shoot shoot 32.8% from the field (including 2-13 from three) and expect to advance past Duke to the Sweet 16. Not going to happen.
So where does SDSU go from here? Steve Fisher has indeed built a winner out in the Mountain West, and considering the talent he has brought in and put out in the past, should remain so. However, the Aztecs again fall short of the Sweet 16 that, as of right now, appears to be their ceiling. Though these past five seasons have marked the golden years of Aztec basketball, this is still a next step to be made. Some, but not all of the scoring return on a team that must improve in this category. These next few years will be very telling of how the Fisher-era will ultimately be regarded.