The NCAA Basketball Tournament is approaching, so it’s time to begin some Bracketology predictions for this year’s field of 64.
With March quickly approaching, bracket predictions for the 2016 NCAA Tournament are about to begin rolling out. We have another month or so before March Madness so here is a seeding breakdown and analysis to this point. This is Busting Bracketology.
A lot of these low seeds will contain teams who are in tight races for regular season titles. Most of these projections are based on who will likely win regular season, because it is typically impossible to predict Cinderella runs in tournament week.
(Note: seed projections are for the final field of 64 and do not include possible play-in matchups)
Here’s a quick breakdown of the predictions by conference:
ACC: 8 teams
Pac-12: 7 teams
Big 12: 6 teams
Big Ten: 6 teams
SEC: 6 teams
Atlantic-10: 3 teams
Big East: 3 teams
West Coast Conference: 2 teams
American Athletic Conference: 2 teams
America East: Stony Brook
Atlantic Sun: North Florida
Big Sky: Montana
Big West: UC-Irvine
Colonial: UNC Wilmington
Conference USA: UAB
Horizon: Valparaiso
Ivy: Yale
MAAC: Monmouth
MAC: Northern Illinois
MEAC: Hampton
Missouri Valley: Wichita State
Mountain West: San Diego State
Ohio Valley: Belmont
Patriot: Bucknell
Southern: Chattanooga
Southland: Stephen F. Austin
SWAC: Texas Southern
Summit: South Dakota State
Sun Belt: Arkansas-Little Rock
WAC: Grand Canyon
All statistics via ESPN.com
Next: 16 Seeds
16 Seeds: Bucknell, Montana, Grand Canyon, Northern Illinois
Bucknell currently has a two game lead on Navy for the Patriot regular season title and have won the only game between the two to this point. Bucknell has recovered nicely in conference play to reach 12-9 after a disastrous 3-8 nonconference slate that included losses to power five schools Penn State and NC State.
Montana possesses an 8-1 Big Sky record. That puts them one game ahead of Weber State before the conference tournament. Neither team owns a marquee win, but the Grizzlies have the distinction of having played Gonzaga, Kansas, and Washington compared to just BYU for Weber State.
Northern Illinois against Akron could be an interesting showdown in Championship week. NIU is second in the MAC West at 5-4 compared to Akron at 7-2 in the MAC East. The Zips did win the first matchup in Akron, but have yet to host the rematch. Akron has the better nonconference win on its resume over Arkansas in Fayetteville. I still go with the Huskies because I think they have the more balanced team on both ends of the court and will steadily push their way to the MAC automatic bid.
The last slot I’ve got is for Grand Canyon of the WAC. Their main competition is New Mexico State. The two are tied right now, but GC owns the tiebreaker due to a win several weeks ago. I go with the Antelopes because of a more highly rated offense over NMSU’s advantages in rebounds and points allowed.
Next: 15 Seeds
15 Seeds: Texas Southern, Hampton, North Florida, Yale
North Florida is the safest out of this bunch. They are leading the Atlantic Sun by one game. They only have won two games against teams above the RPI 150 in Illinois and Eastern Michigan, but have played Louisville, Dayton, VCU, LSU, and Arkansas to varying degrees of respectability. I feel confident that we will see the Ospreys in the Big Dance for the second straight year. Also watch dynamic Dallas Moore whenever you can with his 20+ point per game average.
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Yale is tied with Columbia right now. Their best win is over Princeton, while they have losses to SMU, Duke, and USC from the RPI top-50. They have in the top-25 in both rebounds and points allowed nationally, both superb for a team that often gets forgotten in favor of Harvard.
Texas Southern has rolled through the SWAC conference at 9-0. They are two full games on the next closest teams right now. They have zero wins against teams above RPI 150, but played an impressive collection of teams during the nonconference portion of their season.
The last 15 seed I’ve got for you is Hampton from the MEAC. The Pirates lead their conference by one game right now despite a loss to second place South Carolina State. Like many mid-majors, they lack a big win over a power school, but have played five teams inside the top 150 in RPI.
Next: 14 Seeds
14 Seeds: Stephen F. Austin, Arkansas-Little Rock, Belmont, UAB
Stephen F. Austin is currently locked in a dead heat with rival Southland team Houston Baptist. The Lumberjacks do have the benefit of two straight NCAA appearances, but have a couple bad losses to Northern Iowa and Tulane. This will likely come down to the Southland title game, with SFA’s greater experience as the deciding factor.
Belmont is a good bet to represent the Ohio Valley. Their resume isn’t spectacular, but they split with Valparaiso from the Horizon conference. The Bruins do have good losses to Arizona State, Evansville, BYU, and Middle Tennessee that show they were aggressive in scheduling tough opponents. I’m particularly excited to see 6’7” forward Evan Bradds and his 18 points and almost 10 rebounds take the court against a tournament opponent.
UAB looks to be back to play spoiler yet again this season. They have done well in Conference USA this year, posting an 8-1 record. Their best win is against Middle Tennessee, the 77th best team in RPI right now. They do have a bad loss to Western Kentucky, but they should not have much trouble winning their conference tournament to secure an automatic bid.
Arkansas-Little Rock is two games up on the next best team in the Sun Belt right now. They have some good wins against San Diego State and Tulsa with one good loss to Texas Tech and one bad to Arkansas State. Big thing here is that ALR holds one of the best defenses in America. They only allow 58.3 points per game.
Next: 13 Seeds
13 Seeds: UC Irvine, Stony Brook, Chattanooga, UNC Wilmington
UC Irvine sits atop the Big West conference. Their best win is at Long Beach State, while they possess quality road losses to Saint Mary’s, Oregon, and Kansas. What I love about the Anteaters is their size. They are the owners of one of the tallest rosters in America, highlighted by 7’6″ NBA prospect Mamadou Ndiaye.
Stony Brook has a two game lead over perennial American East representative, Albany. The Seawolves have lost to their only RPI top-50 team when they faced Notre Dame in December. They do have very nice nonconference wins against Princeton and Hofstra to make up for it. Forward Jameel Warney is an absolute beast with 18.2 ppg, 10.4 rpg, 3.1 bpg, and close to shooting 62% from the field.
Chattanooga has done well so far, leading the Southern conference at 8-1. The Mocs boast wins over Dayton, Georgia, and Illinois. Their best lost coming against Iowa State. Most of Chattanooga’s numbers don’t jump off the page, but they do have a ton of upperclassmen experience that often likes to upset power conference teams in March. They hail from the same conference as Mercer, who upset Duke several years ago as a 15-seed.
UNC-Wilmington is fighting hard to stay in control of the Colonial Athletic Conference over favored Hofstra. Hofstra has played more competitive teams, but UNCW has a better record in fewer games. I like the Seahawks from Carolina here because they have a slightly more potent offense, but it’s a tossup until the two teams meet twice before season’s end.
Next: 12 Seeds
12 Seeds: UCLA, Monmouth, San Diego State, South Dakota State
UCLA has been a major headache this year. They’ve beaten Kentucky, Arizona, and Oregon State, but have a couple strange losses to Wake Forest and Washington State. Both of those teams are near the bottom of their respective conferences. The team has huge potential with Bryce Alford, Tony Park, and Thomas Welsh, but definitely needs another good win or two and a solid Pac tournament run to be a sure thing.
UCLA Bruins
Monmouth leads the MAAC by one full game. They have two great wins against Notre Dame and USC, but a poor loss to Army. They have a super guard in Justin Robinson who averages 20.8 points, 3.6 assists, and 2.1 steals. If they lose the conference tournament, they could still get in as an at-large because of their nonconference resume.
San Diego State looks to represent the Mountain West yet again with their stifling defense. The Aztecs best win came against California in November, but lost to RPI 288 San Diego just a week later in San Diego. Defense can take a team far in March, but SD State does pretty poorly on offense to take advantage.
South Dakota State is currently the leader from the Summit League, but the Jackrabbits are locked in a four-way tie with IPFW, Omaha, and IUPUI with seven games left in the regular season. This is among the most competitive mid-major bids up for grabs. If SDST doesn’t come away with it, watchout for the high scoring Omaha Mavericks.
Next: 11 Seeds
11 Seeds: Valparaiso, California, Saint Joseph’s, South Carolina
The Valparaiso Crusaders are one of my favorite mid-major contenders this year. They have a two-game lead over Oakland for the Horizon title. They have a good win over Oregon State, a good loss to Oregon, and a relatively bad loss to Wright State. I’m particularly excited to see Dirk Nowitzki-esque Alec Peters with his mix of size, strength, and shooting. The 6’9″ junior averages 17.1 ppg, 7.8 rpg, and shoots 46% from range.
California is in a weird stretch. They have a great resume with wins over Saint Mary’s, Colorado, Utah, and Arizona, but they’ve lost five of their previous seven. I think Cal gets in if they beat Oregon and either USC or UCLA in Berkeley before the Pac-12 tournament.
South Carolina was one of the final unbeaten teams in America, thanks largely to a true cupcake nonconference schedule. The Gamecocks currently have the 202nd hardest schedule in the country. Even at third in the SEC, they might get left in Charleston unless they beat any combination of LSU, Kentucky, Florida, and Tennessee in their remaining home games.
Saint Joseph’s could be an at-large from the Atlantic-10 conference. They sit one game behind VCU. They Hawks have beaten three teams between RPI 51-100 (Buffalo, Princeton, Temple) and lost to three above 50 (Florida, VCU, Villanova). St. Joe’s probably gets in if they make the A-10 title game or if any power team on the bubble collapses.
Next: 10 Seeds
10 Seeds: Saint Mary’s, Washington, Michigan, Duke
Can Duke survive the season with Amile Jefferson? Since his injury in December, Duke has gone 7-4, but only 5-4 in ACC play. They sit three games out of first place at eighth in the conference and still have a brutal run to end the regular season. They two games against Louisville and North Carolina along with one versus Pittsburgh and Virginia. Depending on how the final nine games go, Duke could be starting at a 9-9 record and needing a massive tournament run just to make the NCAA’s.
Washington has looked great most of this year. They have no bad losses and great wins over Texas, USC, and Colorado. Currently tied for second in the Pac-12, the Huskies still have a shot at winning the regular season if they can best the likes of Oregon, Utah, and Colorado on the road. Andrew Andrews is a superb guard, scoring 21 points per game and adding almost five assists.
Michigan, despite having no bad losses and sitting fifth in the Big Ten, is still squarely on the bubble after getting destroyed by Indiana in Ann Arbor. Their remaining schedule is manageable, with a final conference record of 11-7 looking like a good bet. If Caris LeVert can come back for any stretch of time, Michigan is in good shape to make the Big Dance.
Saint Mary’s is the talk of the country this year. They only have a half-game lead on Gonzaga for the WCC regular season, but to knock off the Bulldogs is no small feat during the Mark Few era. The SM Gaels have gotten this far due to an efficient offense, great passing, and the number 2 defense at 59.6 points allowed. Even if Gonzaga takes the conference at the end, Saint Mary’s has earned an at-large over bigger, underperforming programs.
Next: 9 Seeds?
9 Seeds: Clemson, LSU, Connecticut, Gonzaga
If Gonzaga wins either the WCC regular season or conference tournament, they will outrank Saint Mary’s. The issue for the Zags have been on offense. Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis have been spectacular forwards, but guard play is subpar at best. They need to beat a combination of Pepperdine, BUY, and nonconference SMU to secure an at-large bid.
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Despite possessing the possible first pick in the NBA draft, Ben Simmons and LSU are still not a sure lock to make the tournament. The Tigers are sitting in second in the SEC and have no truly bad losses, but have been an up and down team through most of the year. If LSU beats either Texas A&M or Florida yet this year, they are in, but a lower seed without a good conference tournament run.
Connecticut sits third in the American conference behind Cincinnati, Tulsa, and Temple and is more out than in at this point. I like the Huskies because they have good wins over Michigan and Texas early this year and a better strength-of-schedule over several their conference opponents. I particularly want to see graduate transfer Shonn Miller make the NCAA’s after a great career at Cornell.
Clemson is a dangerous team this year. After being picked 12th in the ACC preseason poll, the Tigers have gone 6-5 against the RPI top-50 this season. They currently sit third in conference behind North Carolina and Louisville. It is almost a lock for Clemson to get an at-large bid right now with their hardest remaining game hosting Virginia.
Next: 8 Seeds
8 Seeds: Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Florida, VCU
I have no idea what SMU’s postseason ban does to the American conference’s automatic bid, but unless the NCAA lifts said ban, Cincinnati might end up being the team to watch. They have good wins over VCU and Connecticut. No one Bearcat stands out, but Mick Cronin’s squad is twelfth in points allowed at 62.2 per game. Anything could really happen with this team.
Florida is trending upward and starting to finally receiver more notice after recently crushing West Virginia at home. The Gators are fifth in the SEC and could jump up to second if they can beat Kentucky, South Carolina, and LSU before the end of regular season play.
VCU, in its first season without Shaka Smart, has remained the toast of the Atlantic-10. They only went 8-5 in nonconference play, but has since gone 8-1 in conference play. The biggest game remaining for the Rams is their final game at Dayton that could decide the conference title before March.
Pittsburgh is a solid bet for an at-large bid while sitting tied for fourth in ACC play. They have good wins over Syracuse, Notre Dame, and Florida State, but 3-3 over their past six games. They have a very efficient offense, ranking in the top-35 in both points and assists per game.
Next: 7 Seeds
7 Seeds: Notre Dame, Miami, Arizona, Colorado
Notre Dame is strange. They are tied for fourth in ACC play. They beat Iowa in November and Duke in Durham, but they’ve lost their other six games against the RPI top-50. Demetrius Jackson is a star, but might miss out on another chance to show off unless the Irish beat North Carolina, Louisville, Clemson, or Miami to finish out the season.
Miami is another team on the ACC bubble. The Hurricanes are tied with Notre Dame at fourth in the conference and have a much better resume. They are 5-1 against the top-50, but are 3-3 in the past couple weeks. They are good on both ends of the floor, but need an upset over North Carolina or Louisville to really cement their status.
Arizona has struggled this year. They are only 5-4 in Pac-12 play after going undefeated in nonconference play. The Wildcats are likely an at-large bid due to a favorable schedule the rest of the way. Their toughest remaining games are at Colorado, at Utah, and hosting USC. One of those games are key to securing the team’s tournament future.
Colorado has far exceeded expectations. After losing their opening game to Iowa State, the Buffaloes rattled off 11 straight wins. They are currently 6-3 in Pac-12 conference play behind Oregon, USC, and Utah. Colorado is a lock for me if they beast Washington at home and take a road game against the Ducks, Spartans, or Utes. Forward Josh Scott has starred this year, averaging a near double-double with over 17 points and almost 10 rebounds a game.
Next: 6 Seeds
6 Seeds: USC, Utah, Indiana, Texas
Texas is one of the hottest teams in the country right now. They have won six of eight while beating both West Virginia and Baylor on the road. They also beat Iowa State at home. The Longhorns have done enough to earn a good seed such as this one. They face a brutal stretch of four games against the Sooners, Cyclones, Mountaineers, and Bears in a row. A win in any of those games could jump Texas up to a 5 or 4 seed.
Indiana, even siting atop the Big Ten, is still not getting a ton of love because of a nonconference schedule ranked 224th. The Hoosiers finally got a marquee win, dominating Michigan on the road. They will have several more chances to inch up the bracket, with two games yet to play against Iowa, at Michigan State, and hosting Maryland.
USC is playing well in the Pac-12 this year after being picked ninth in conference. They have done it by playing very well on offense and rebounding the ball. The Trojans have the chance to win the regular season title when they host Oregon in their final game before tournament week.
Utah is tied with USC for second behind Oregon. They lag slightly behind the Trojans in offensive numbers, but possess a better defense. They could jump up if they can take a road game off USC in a couple weeks and close out strong against Arizona and Colorado.
Next: 5 Seeds
5 Seeds: Baylor, Dayton, Wichita State, Purdue
Wichita State has rebounded from a 5-5 nonconference slate that included losses to Iowa and Alabama to run roughshod over the Missouri Valley. The Shockers are 10-0 in MVC play and cruising to another automatic bid. WSU’s Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet are leading the charge, 14.4 and 13.4 ppg, respectively. Guards are usually important for deep runs, so don’t be shocked if this team wins a couple games.
Purdue has been a bit of a disappointment. They do have a lot of good wins, going 6-3 against the RPI top-100, but haven’t dominated the way many expected with their size in the front court. The Boilermakers still have the talent to receive a higher seed, but they probably need to beat Maryland and Michigan State with a win or two in the Big Ten tournament.
Dayton is only a half game behind VCU to win the Atlantic-10. Their only bad loss is is La Salle, but they have beaten Iowa, Alabama, and Vanderbilt among others. The Flyers are either the conference’s auto bid or an at-large and have the recent history to suggest a dangerous run.
Baylor has exceeded expectations this season by a small amount. They are currently one game back of Oklahoma and West Virginia for first place after a terribly-timed loss to Texas in Waco. Taurean Prince, Johnathan Motley, and Rico Gathers are great rebounders, but the weakness for this team is clearly the guards. Al Freeman and Lester Medford are good, but have been very inconsistent over the past week or two.
Next: 4 Seeds
4 Seeds: West Virginia, Providence, Kentucky, Oregon
Providence continues to rock out behind Villanova and Butler, but they are a dynamic offensive team that has very little to fear from the rest of its conference beyond the two above them. Keep watch on the situation with forward Ben Bentil, who hurt his ankle against DePaul.
West Virginia. They suspended one of their most important players right before their blowout loss to Florida. Beating Iowa State in Ames was huge, but they still have to host Baylor and visit Kansas in order to truly secure a seed this high.
Kentucky is 6-3 in the SEC, good for a share of third. They recently collapsed against Tennessee in Knoxville, and could drop out of the top-25 if they lose to Florida on Saturday. Kentucky has the talent to win several games in the Big Dance, but haven’t seemed able to put everything together this season given the typical UK hype.
Oregon has been very impressive this year. They have beaten Baylor, USC, and at Arizona for several of their best wins. They do have a couple unpleasant losses against Boise State and UNLV, but have played well enough to lead the Pac-12 by one game. Oregon could reach as high as a 2-seed if they can run the table.
Next: 3 Seeds
3 Seeds: Iowa State, Maryland, Michigan State, Louisville
Maryland. The Terps finally got their signature win for the season when the beat Iowa at home last week. They haven’t shown they can put their magnificent paper roster together for a whole game just yet, but their defense has been smothering enough in recent games to suggest they are entering a groove with just over a month left.
Iowa State could honestly get anywhere from 1-seed to a 5-seed the way this season has gone in Ames. They lost at Texas A&M to snap a four-game win streak, but has beaten three teams that have been ranked in the top-5 so far this year. The team has shown a lot of grit lately and are still near-unbeatable at home. They remain among the most dangerous teams in America.
Michigan State is a good team that has started to wake up in recent weeks. They had a three-game stretch where they lost to Iowa, Wisconsin, and a bad Nebraska team. They have rebounded with wins over Maryland, Northwestern, and Rutgers. Winning the Big Ten is unlikely given that Iowa swept the Spartans, but the Spartans are among the teams most prone to magical runs in the postseason every single year.
Louisville has no bad losses this season and have beaten North Carolina and Pittsburgh for their big wins. They sit behind only the Tar Heels and could win the ACC if things break their way. Transfers have done the heavy lifting for Rick Pitino’s squad. Cleveland State’s Trey Lewis and Drexel’s Damion Lee are playing great basketball. One of those two players will be the ACC newcomer of the year.
Next: 2 Seeds
2 Seeds: Virginia, Texas A&M, Iowa, Kansas
Texas A&M. The Aggies look to be in the driver seat for the SEC regular season title. They are one game up on South Carolina, Kentucky, and LSU. They also have a fairly easy schedule left, hosting UK and at LSU as the hardest remaining games. TA&M is playing great defense while also being unselfish and efficient on offense. They are the hottest team contender for a number 1 spot from this group.
Kansas Jayhawks
Virginia is a quality team that is among the toughest to score against for yet another year. My issues with the Cavaliers are they don’t rebound well, assist much, or score at a consistent enough rate for my taste. They also have weird losses to Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech that could bite them if any more stumbles occur.
Iowa is the Big Ten’s biggest shock this year. The have no bad losses and a ton of quality wins over opponents in the Big Ten and a few in nonconference play. Any other year without someone like Buddy Hield and you have Jarrod Uthoff as the likely player of the year. The Hawkeyes have a very favorable schedule, but they could still lose a couple games at Indiana and at Michigan before winning the conference regular season.
Kansas has fallen victim to the one-and-done trend harder than most other teams this year. Potential first-round picks Cheick Diallo and Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk barely contribute in a meaningful way, leaving Perry Ellis and Wayne Seldon to carry much of the load. This is the year the Jayhawks lose the Big 12 regular season, as I don’t see them beating Okahoma, Baylor, or Texas on the road to keep up.
Next: 1 Seeds
1 Seeds: Oklahoma, North Carolina, Villanova, Xavier
Oklahoma is tied for the lead in the Big 12 while remaining the top team in the country. Their thrilling comeback win over LSU has further cemented their place as America’s number one team and very little is left to slow down the Sooner machine beyond two games against Texas, a rematch with Kansas, and a visit to West Virginia that could decide the conference crown.
Villanova leads the Big East. They have victories over Saint Joseph’s and Xavier, with good losses to Oklahoma, Virginia, and Providence. The Wildcats don’t have the highest scoring offense, but they play great defense and are very unselfish with the ball.
Xavier is trailing Villanova by one game in the Big East and are on a three-game win streak since dropping to Georgetown at home. Xavier is probably my pick for the national title right now. The are in the top 75 on points, rebounds, assists, and points allowed.
North Carolina is the most likely to drop to a 2-seed. The Tar Heels are still leading the ACC, but lost at Louisville recently while having tough games remaining at Notre Dame and Virginia. They also have to play Duke twice in what is college hoops’ most famous rivalry. Carolina continues to have the potential of winning it all, especially if Marcus Paige can shoot better than 22% (his number over the past five games).