With each Big 12 basketball team having six games remaining on their schedule, we update power rankings with more stats and analysis on each team.
Believe it or not, as things currently stand, there are just six more regular season conference games for every Big 12 team. Three weeks. So we’re officially two thirds of the way through the conference season.
However, that doesn’t mean that there still isn’t plenty of parity among Big 12 teams, with the standings currently looking like this:
- Kansas (9-3)
- West Virginia (9-3)
- Oklahoma (8-4)
- Baylor (7-5)
- Iowa State (7-5)
- Texas (7-5)
- Texas Tech (5-7)
- Kansas State (3-9)
- Oklahoma State (3-9)
- TCU (2-10)
According to Joe Lunardi’s bracketology, the Big 12 currently has six of their 10 teams in the tournament, those teams being Kansas (1 seed), Oklahoma (1 seed), West Virginia (3 seed), Iowa State (4 seed), Texas (5 seed), and Baylor (6 seed).
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Clearly the Big 12 figures to be plenty active once March rolls around. For now, though, these teams will just continue to beat up on each other. Baylor thought they had everything figured out after their win on the road in Ames a few weeks ago, but have now lost three of four, including a loss to Texas Tech at home.
Texas thought their season was going down the tubes once Cameron Ridley was out for the season, yet they’re giving fans in Austin the best basketball they’ve seen in awhile, and played both Oklahoma and Iowa State very tough while on the road.
Texas Tech thought their tournament hopes were gone, but they just notched two wins against Iowa State, and against Baylor, in Waco, to put themselves back in the bubble.
It’s a great time of year for Big 12 basketball. So let’s dig into these power rankings.
Next: The Spoilers
Ever heard of someone refer to a team as a “spoiler”? That’s when a team basically has no hope for the rest of their season, but is playing with the hope of potentially spoiling some kind of accolades for someone else. Trust me, as a Cubs fan, I’ve heard the Cubs called spoilers from 2010-2014 (but not anymore!), so I’m very used to it. Anyway, these three teams have no hopes of making the tournament. They’re just trying to spoil it for everyone else.
10. TCU Horned Frogs, 11-14, 2-10 Big 12
I always thought the epitome of bad offense was last season’s Kansas vs. Kentucky game when Jay Bilas paralleled Kansas’ offensive struggles to trying to throw a frisbee through a redwood forest (if you’re having a difficult time figuring out what that means, imagine playing catch with a frisbee in this environment).
Anyway, I held that opinion until I watched TCU play this year. Their offensive rating of of 95 is 320th in the nation. They’re barely shooting over 40% as a team at 40.8%, they’re shooting just 33% from the three-point line, and just 66% from the free throw line (all stats via sports-reference.com). Their field goal percentage at the rim is just 53%, which ranks last in the Big 12. Only one other Big 12 team shoots below 60% at the rim, and that’s Oklahoma State, whose offense is almost just as dreadful (via hoop-math.com). And it’s a shame, because their defense is actually respectable.
9. Oklahoma State Cowboys, 12-13, 3-9 Big 12
Travis ford is the only okstate coach in history to have 100 losses and less than 300 wins
— Blog Formerly Known As CRFF (@stillyorbust) February 9, 2016
Travis Ford’s current job security is currently… not good. Granted, Phil Forte, his best and most experienced player coming into this season, is out for the season with an injury, but the results this season haven’t been good for a team that had hoped to make the NCAA Tournament. The only thing that might save his job at this point is Jawun Evans. I have no idea what the relationship between the two is like, but Evans must like Ford, since he committed to play at Oklahoma State in the first place. Firing Ford may make Evans want to leave.
8. Kansas State Wildcats, 14-11, 3-9 Big 12
The Big 12 may have the two most strange losses of the season, with Kansas losing to Oklahoma State and Oklahoma losing to Kansas State. Granted, good teams usually have one very strange loss every year, but these are two of the best teams in the country losing to teams that have no shot of making the NCAA Tournament.
Maybe this just speaks to the gap between the top teams, and the bottom teams in college basketball this year. I don’t know what the reason is, but hey, Bruce Weber might have saved his job with that victory.
Next: Number 7
7. Texas Tech Red Raiders, 15-9, 5-7 Big 12
If you’re looking for one reason for the Red Raiders surge back into the NCAA Tournament picture, look no further than junior forward Aaron Ross.
After averaging just over 8 points per game on just over 18 minutes per game for the first 20 games of the season, Ross is averaging almost 34 minutes per game and just under 17 points per game since the calendar turned to February.
This offensive surge by Ross has been led by his three-point shooting. He took just 16 threes in Tech’s 12 non-conference games, but he’s jacking up almost 4 per game in conference play, and is shooting 45% from out there in February. He is leading the team in scoring in Big 12 play (all stats via sports-reference.com).
Ross has had a difficult journey through college basketball, as upon his commitment to Arkansas in 2011 he was declared ineligible, and decided to play at a junior college, until Texas Tech eventually came calling. Then upon his arrival at Texas Tech in 2012, he tore a ligament in his knee, which he then re-injured last season. When Norense Odiase broke his foot last month, it was finally Ross’ time to shine, and now that he’s fully healthy, he’s taking advantage of the opportunity.
Next: Number 6
6. Baylor Bears, 18-7, 7-5 Big 12
With the up and down season that Baylor has had, not enough is made out of the season Lester Medford is having. I, along with many other people, were a little wary before the season on Medford. Would he be able to give the stability that Kenny Chery did?
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And after a 2 point, 1 assist, 6 turnover game against Oregon in the second game of the season, I was totally ready to write him off. He was benched in favor of Jake Lindsey down the stretch of that game, and it looked as if Baylor had a real point guard issue.
Now, Medford’s assist to turnover ratio of 3.4 is the fifth highest in the history of the Big 12! He sits behind Doug Gottlieb‘s 1998-99 season when he also posted a 3.4 assist to turnover ratio, and three of Monte Morris‘ seasons when he posted ratios of 4.6, 4.8, and currently 5.4 (stats via last night’s ESPN telecast) (also: Monte Morris is really good).
He’s been lights out from beyond the arc during Big 12 play, too, shooting 41% from there, helping keep the floor spread for Taurean Prince and company (via sports-reference.com). He isn’t quite the scorer that Kenny Chery was, but he’s doing what he can to keep this offense humming (they currently rank 23rd in the nation in offensive rating). Now if they can shore up their issues on the defensive end, we could be looking at a dangerous team come March.
Next: Number 5
5. Iowa State Cyclones, 18-7, 7-5 Big 12
Jameel McKay only missed two games due to his suspension, February 6 at Oklahoma State and February 10 at Texas Tech, not exactly world-beaters. McKay returned to action last Saturday, but came off the bench, scoring 8 points, grabbing 7 rebounds, and blocking 4 shots in the Cyclones’ victory.
I’m still very unsure of what McKay’s value really is to this Iowa State team. On one hand, Deonte Burton, McKay’s replacement in the starting lineup, averaged over 15 points per game in McKay’s stead. On the other hand, they allowed a very bad Texas Tech offense to shoot 53% from inside the arc, and an equally bad Oklahoma State offense to shoot 54% from the same area. Affecting shots inside the arc is where McKay’s value is felt.
On Saturday, Texas shot 50% from inside the arc. Still not a good number, but better, and McKay only played 22 minutes. On the season, the ‘Clones are allowing teams to shoot 48% from inside the arc, which is in the bottom half of teams in the country (via sports-reference.com). That’s a terrible number for a team that had national championship hopes coming into the season. This team probably had the most expectations of any team in the history of this program.
Their offense is still elite, with an offensive rating good for 30th in the country, and they’re shooting an other-worldly 73% at the rim (via hoop-math.com). But that only goes so far if they can’t stop the other team from scoring, too.
Next: Number 4
4. Texas Longhorns, 16-9, 7-5 Big 12
What on earth is going on in Austin?
The Longhorns lost Cameron Ridley for the season in December, then proceeded to lose two of their first three Big 12 conference games, to TCU and Texas Tech! Since the loss to TCU, the Horns are 7-3, with their only losses being at Kansas, at Oklahoma, and at Iowa State, and they played so well in all three of those games that they were winnable games down the stretch.
They have beaten Iowa State, West Virginia in Morgantown, they blew out Vanderbilt, and beat Baylor in Waco! Texas fans are already ready to declare Shaka Smart as the greatest coach in the history of that program.
In the same 10 game stretch, they have given up more than 70 points just three times, to Iowa State twice and once to Kansas, which is understandable. They have given up more than 60 points only five times. Opponents are shooting just 41% against them. Their defense has been absolutely suffocating. Their remaining schedule gives them plenty of opportunities for big wins as well:
Also, this is completely unrelated to how well the Longhorns are playing lately, but I never knew that Isaiah Taylor used to have Jameel McKay-esque braided hair. As someone who hasn’t changed his haircut in about… 13 years, I’m not well versed enough in hair styles to know what it’s called. But I do know that Taylor made a good decision to cut that thing off of his head. At least I think so.
Next: Number 3
3. West Virginia Mountaineers, 20-5, 9-3 Big 12
Continuing the trend of “Big 12 teams that got a player back from suspension,” the Mountaineers got Jonathan Holton back from his four game suspension on Saturday. He scored 14 points, grabbed 7 rebounds, and racked up 5 assists off the bench in a win over TCU.
They somehow managed to survive their toughest stretch in conference play (@ISU, vs. Baylor, @KU) 2-1 without Holton. However, his absence in their pressure defense was felt. They forced under 14 turnovers per game (13.75), yet on the season they force over 19 per game. And in Holton’s first game back on Saturday, the Mountaineers forced TCU into committing 26 turnovers.
With all that being said, West Virginia still has the toughest remaining schedule between them, Oklahoma, and Kansas, the three teams still vying for the Big 12 title. They still have a game against Oklahoma and Iowa State, and need to go on the road to face both Baylor and Texas. It’s hard not to imagine a scenario where they don’t lose at least two more games.
However, they’ve surprised us before. They battled back from a massive first half deficit to win in Ames, and that was without Holton. They play a brand of basketball where almost anything is possible at any time. Maybe they’ll make a real run at this title now that Holton is back.
Next: Number 2
2. Oklahoma Sooners, 20-4, 8-4 Big 12
One of the most popular, and old, basketball cliches says that you live by the three and you die by the three. Oklahoma may be learning that the hard way right now.
Oklahoma Sooners
The Sooners are shooting 44% on the year on three-pointers, first in the nation. However, they’ve cooled off over their past three games, shooting just 32% from downtown, and going 1-2 in those games.
This could be a tiny cold stretch over the course of an otherwise fantastic season for the Sooners. Or, it could be a legitimate concern. At this point, I would say that Jordan Woodard‘s streak of poor shooting should definitely be a concern. He’s just 4 for his last 23 from beyond the arc.
This isn’t to take anything away from the teams they have played, either. Kansas probably had their best collective effort on defense in their victory over the Sooners on Saturday, and Texas’ fantastic defense was chronicled earlier in these rankings.
But Oklahoma takes so many threes that one off-game come tournament time could spell an early exit for them. That would be a heartbreaking way for Buddy Hield to go out. At the same time, though, if they get hot for six games in March, they’re going to be very, very hard to beat.
Next: Number 1
1. Kansas Jayhawks, 21-4, 9-3 Big 12
With 6:40 remaining in the second half on Saturday, Frank Mason fouled Jordan Woodard on a rebound, picking up his fourth foul, and putting Woodard at the line to tie the game at 59. With Mason on the bench, Oklahoma had all of the momentum, and many Jayhawk fans probably felt as if the team were about to lose another game after holding a big lead in the first half.
Kansas Jayhawks
But then Devonte Graham happened. Graham scored 13 points over the final 6:40 of the game, with 8 of those coming after Mason eventually fouled out at the 3:22 mark, and the Jayhawks won 76-72.
Every time the Sooners threw a punch, the counter-punch came from Graham. Ironically, just three days ago, Jesse Newell wrote about how Graham worked on his three point shot this offseason after realizing over the summer that opposing defenders kept going under screens on defense.
That paid off in a big way on Saturday, as Oklahoma clearly wanted to go under every ball screen for him. He finished with 27 points on 8-13 from the floor and 6-9 from three. Perhaps even more impressive, he held the player of the year favorite, Buddy Hield, to just 24 points on 5-15 from the floor. Not only did he force Hield into his worst performance of the season on offense, but he outscored him on offense as well.
I went back and took a look at every shot Hield took on Saturday so I could get a better idea of the impact Graham had on his bad day. With Graham guarding Hield, Hield scored just 14 points on 3-10 from the floor. Graham also forced him into 4 turnovers.
Where Hield did most of his damage was off of Oklahoma’s offensive rebounds, where he had 7 of his 24 points. Kansas held him to just 5 points in transition, a fantastic number as he usually feasts on those wide-open threes as teams scramble to find him. Much of that can be credited to Graham, who was glued on him all day.
More busting brackets: Jayhawks cement status as conference front-runner
Overall, Graham did a fantastic job on Hield, and somehow still had the energy to take over the game come crunch time. In a season full of uncertainties regarding the number-one team in the nation, Hield being the player of the year has been certain for some time now. But for one day in February, Devonte Graham looked like the player of the year. And it may have won the Big 12 for the Jayhawks.