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WCC Basketball: Should the Saint Mary’s Gaels still be on the bubble?

By Carmine Carcieri

Dec 13, 2014; Omaha, NE, USA; St. Marys Gaels head coach Randy Bennett points out action against the Creighton Bluejays at CenturyLink Center Omaha. St. Marys defeated Creighton 71-67 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 13, 2014; Omaha, NE, USA; St. Marys Gaels head coach Randy Bennett points out action against the Creighton Bluejays at CenturyLink Center Omaha. St. Marys defeated Creighton 71-67 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports /
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Saint Mary’s has an opportunity to represent WCC basketball with an automatic bid to the Big Dance, but their entrance shouldn’t come in the form of an at-large bid.   

Bubble talk is in full gear with Selection Sunday just five weeks away and one team that currently sits on the cut line, according to many Bracketology experts, is the Saint Mary’s Gaels (20-4, 11-3).

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Head coach Randy Bennett has his team in second place, one game behind Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference, but do the Gaels truly deserve to have a shot at an at-large bid? Should they really be sitting as one of Joe Lunardi’s Last Four In?

While Saint Mary’s passes the eye test thanks to the fourth best scoring defense in the nation, an efficient sharp shooter in Emmitt Naar and a do-it-all talent in Joe Rahon, the team has not put together a sharp resume.

The WCC is the 14th best conference in the country in terms of RPI and the Gaels have lost two out of their last four games. Saint Mary’s has losses to California on the road (which is a “good loss”), BYU in Provo and were swept by Pepperdine, a team that is 16-10 overall and has six losses in conference play. But most importantly, they haven’t beaten anyone of significance and possess a brutal overall strength of schedule (226). They have an RPI of just 72, have zero top 50 wins and fifteen (!) RPI 150+ victories.

Bennett’s team still has a chance to knock off one final quality opponent before the season ends when they head to Spokane to face the Bulldogs, but will a victory really increase their profile? Gonzaga, who sits at 60 in the RPI and lost Przemek Karnowski to a back injury, has had a down year in terms of their normal status as one of the elite teams in the country.

Feb 4, 2016; Provo, UT, USA; Brigham Young Cougars center Corbin Kaufusi (44) tries to block the shot of St. Mary's Gaels guard Joe Rahon (25) during the first half at Marriott Center. Mandatory Credit: Chris Nicoll-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 4, 2016; Provo, UT, USA; Brigham Young Cougars center Corbin Kaufusi (44) tries to block the shot of St. Mary’s Gaels guard Joe Rahon (25) during the first half at Marriott Center. Mandatory Credit: Chris Nicoll-USA TODAY Sports /

They too have struggled in WCC play and will need to win the post-season conference tournament to make their 18th straight Big Dance.

A sweep of the Bulldogs would look excellent and a solid KenPom ranking (43) is holding up their profile, but there are multiple other programs that have better numbers at this point in the season. Alabama is red hot after winning at Florida while Butler, Washington, Florida State, Vanderbilt and even Clemson have earned quality wins that are lacking on the Gaels’ profile.

There is no question Saint Mary’s could end this discussion by running through the WCC Tournament with their crisp ball movement and excellent defense. The Gaels have the skill, composure and coaching to defeat Gonzaga, who poses as the biggest threat, and they certainly can pull off a win against BYU, who lurks as a potential sleeper team.

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But in terms of an at-large selection, the boat should have sailed after their latest loss to Pepperdine.