LSU Basketball: Why Ben Simmons and the Tigers Won’t Make the NCAA Tournament
By Ian Rewoldt
The future number one pick hasn’t been enough to carry LSU basketball into the Big Dance.
On Saturday, Bracketologist Joe Lunardi came on the broadcast of LSU’s contest against Florida to state exactly what Ben Simmons and company need to do to make the NCAA tournament. He claimed, “LSU needs to win at Rupp Arena next Saturday or they will have to win the SEC Tournament.”
Related Story: Kentucky shoots the lights out against Tennessee
He went on to say that they are not even in his “Next Four Out” category in terms of receiving an at large bid. The LSU Tigers are that far off of the bubble and given Lunardi’s past history of predicting NCAA tournament teams, it’s a pretty safe bet to assume that he stands correct.
Lunardi made these statements while the Tigers were beating the Gators by a comfortable double digit margin in the second half. After an anxious last five minutes of the game that saw Florida make a comeback to give the Tigers a scare, LSU did pull it out to halt their three game losing skid.
Much has been written in the media about LSU’s terrible non-conference schedule and their recent tumble down the SEC standings. How did a team, led by what many consider the number one pick in next June’s NBA Draft in Simmons get to the point where they have to win out to make the NCAA tournament?
Head coach Johnny Jones, who is on the hot seat, has been the brunt of a ton of criticism for not getting the most out of the talent he has been privileged to coach. Their season statistics tell a compelling narrative.
The Tigers are ranked 46th in Ken Pomeroy’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency rankings, which is above average, but not great. Simmons is shooting 56% from the field on the year, but the Tigers as a whole are shooting a shade under 47% percent. Simmons has taken by far the most shots on the team. This insinuates that the rest of team is not shooting nearly as well from the field. The now injured Keith Hornsby was shooting 49%, but most of the other regulars are in the low forties or high thirties from the field. Essentially, besides Simmons and Hornsby, who is out with a hernia injury for the foreseeable future, the Tigers are not efficient enough from the floor.
It is worse from three-point range. LSU is only shooting 33.7% as a team from long distance. Hornsby, again, was propping that average up, shooting a high volume and a 41.5% clip from downtown. The rest of the squad is bricking three point shots in bunches.
LSU partially makes up for these deficiencies by getting to the free throw line at a high rate, led by Simmons. Although these trips to the line manufacture points for the Tigers, the numbers from the field and from three are preventing LSU from unleashing their collective offensive talent on the SEC.
What you see on the court from the Tigers shows why their shooting percentages are low. Many of the Tigers offensive sets involve passing the ball around the perimeter while staring at a Simmons post up. The four players looking to get the ball to Simmons are stagnant and are virtually no threat to score. When the ball does get into Simmons, it is well documented how effective he is, but when LSU can’t get the ball to him, they are forced to create looks out of nothing at the end of the shot clock. This often turns into a drive and contested fade away or a three with a defender in the shooter’s face.
These offensive possessions create little movement and beyond actually getting the ball to Simmons, no advantage for the offense. Simmons may arguably be the best offensive player in the country, but LSU has an incredibly hard time scoring on offensive trips when he doesn’t get the ball in a one-on-one situation.
On the other side of the ball, LSU is ranked 149th in KenPom’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency rankings. That is behind defensive juggernauts Minnesota and Quinnipiac. On defense, the Tigers are giving up 45% shooting and 35.3% from three point land. These rates are respectable, yet very comparable to their own offensive numbers and don’t allow them to create distance between themselves and their opponents.
The Tigers at times have locked down opponents; most notably when they held number nine Kentucky to 67 points in a January home win. Other times the Tigers have looked utterly disinterested in stopping the players across from them. They gave up 62 points in the second half alone against the Gators. Before the win against Florida they gave up over 80 points to both Arkansas and Tennessee, who are not exactly tremendous teams in this year’s SEC.
Part of this struggle can be attributed to an incredibly young core of players. Defensive concepts and especially rotations are difficult for inexperienced players to learn and they are vitally important for getting consistent stops in a power 5 conference.
The effort problem is on Jones. It is the coaching staff’s responsibility to motivate his players to play hard. There is no excuse for not helping and giving up uncontested layups or refusing to close out on an open three point shooter. Not giving 100% percent on defense every possession will cost a team games over the course of the season and that has probably happened to LSU. These are games they cannot afford to give away when they are currently off the bubble.
The Tigers have two games remaining in the regular season. They are at home against the lowly Missouri Tigers on Tuesday and then make the daunting venture into Lexington to take on the Kentucky Wildcats.
LSU should be able to win convincingly against Missouri, but taking on the Wildcats will be an incredibly tough contest.
Kentucky hasn’t lost at home in over two years. There is little doubt that John Calipari will be concocting his defense specifically to stop Simmons and make other players make plays, especially when LSU is missing Hornsby.
Jones will have to find creative ways to get the ball to Simmons in spots where he can score. The Tigers will have to dial up a defensive effort like they did against Kentucky last time out and definitely need to turn up the intensity a notch from where they have been competing at recently. If they don’t eliminate the mistakes they’ve been making, they will get run off of the floor.
The prospects for an LSU win against the Wildcats don’t look good, but if they don’t win next weekend, they face having to win four games in four days at the SEC tournament as the current five seed. Despite what the talking heads have been asking, no the NCAA Selection Committee will not hand the Tigers an at large bid just to put Simmons in the Big Dance. Their tournament resume reeks of bad losses and a lack of quality wins. Their RPI sits at 85 as of February 28 and no team that low has ever been an at large selection.
More busting brackets: 10 NCAA coaches on the hot seat
If they don’t beat Kentucky or make a miraculous run through the SEC tournament, Simmons will have played one impressive year on an unimpressive team. His college basketball career will fade away just as quickly as it came in to the limelight.