Wisconsin Basketball: Buy stock in the Badgers

Wisconsin basketball was left for dead in early January but the Badgers have turned it around. 

It has been a topsy-turvy season for Wisconsin this year. After last season’s magical championship game run last season, expectations surrounded another NCAA tournament appearance and maybe a Big Ten title run.

Related Story: Who is the Big Ten Player of the Year?

That optimism ended in the first game of the season when Wisconsin went out and laid an egg against woeful Western Illinois (ranked #236 according to KenPom). The Badgers plodded along in non-conference play with a 7-5 record (only 5-3 at home) when Bo Ryan shocked the basketball world and retired after a victory over Texas A&M-CC. Speculation was that it was done to provide his long-time assistant coach Greg Gard an opportunity to audition for the head coach role in 2016-17.

The first six games under Gard were not inspiring. The Badgers were just 2-4 under the coach and stood at 9-9 (1-4) after a road loss to Northwestern in which they gave up 44 second half points.

It certainly looked like Wisconsin was going to finish near the bottom of Big Ten basketball’s conference for the first time in around 20 years. Things looked even more grim with a top-five Michigan State team coming to Madison, WI on January 17th.

The Badgers’ season completely turned around with the upset victory in the Kohl Center. Since that point, Wisconsin is 10-1 with victories over No. 4 Michigan State, No. 19 Indiana and a road victories over No. 8 Iowa and No. 2 Maryland.

With a week to go in the Big Ten basketball season, the Badgers currently sit as the No. 2 seed in Big Ten if the conference tournament started today. It is one of the most remarkable turnarounds in all of college basketball. But what factors have contributed to their rise in the last third of the season?

Frontline

Wisconsin has one of the best frontlines in all of the Big Ten. Leading the charge is junior forward and leading scorer, Nigel Hayes. The 6’8″ forward struggled earlier in the season adjusting to the role of “alpha dog”.

Last year, he was a solid complementary player with now-NBA players Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker, but expectations were a bit much for him to start the year. Hayes has become more and more comfortable in the lead role and now is one of the most feared bigs in the league.

Part of why he is so effective is his ability to score from anywhere on the court. He averages over 16 points a game and will probably top 40 three-pointers made on the season. He is also a 73% foul shooter and attempts almost eight a game. In the victories over Maryland, Michigan State, Iowa and Indiana, Hayes has averaged 20 points a game.

Hayes is not the only big man threat for the Badgers. Junior forward Vitto Brown also can step out and hit outside shots (35% from deep). In Brown’s last six games, he has made three or more three-pointers in half of them.

Finally the biggest surprise and biggest talent is probably freshman forward Ethan Happ. The 6’9″ Wisconsin-native is averaging almost 12 a game on 53% shooting. Happ doesn’t mind doing the dirty work in the lane, as he averages almost 8 boards a game, a top 10 figure in the Big Ten.

This imposing and versatile frontline is playing on all cylinders as the Badgers enter March. They offer Wisconsin a multitude of looks and ways of scoring. A definite force to be reckoned with.

Defense and Rebounding

Wisconsin has gotten back to basics and defended/rebounded like some of their great teams under Ryan.

The Badgers are currently in first place in the Big Ten in scoring defense in conference play. Second place Michigan State is over three points behind the Badgers. Wisconsin is also near the top in the conference in field goal percentage defense and defensive rebounding.

These are key stats because Wisconsin, as usual, ranks near the bottom in all of Division I in possessions per game. Getting stops, forcing bad shots and limiting offensive rebounds are all key when possessions are at a premium against Wisconsin.

Game-to-game you can see this in some of their biggest wins. In their road victory over then #2 Maryland, Wisconsin out-rebounded the big Maryland frontline 40-30 and won the offensive rebounding battle 13-9. They also attempted six more shots than Maryland and held the Terps’ star player, sophomore Melo Trimble, to an abysmal 1-of-14 from the field.

Bronson Koenig

Like Hayes, Koenig struggled with the increased scoring burden in the wake of Kaminsky and Dekker leaving. Koenig was pressing earlier in the season in big games and his shooting numbers showed it.

In losses to Georgetown, Oklahoma, Milwaukee, Marquette, Purdue, Indiana and Maryland Koenig shot a combined 24-of-89(!) from the field (26%).

During Wisconsin’s current streak, Koenig has been much more efficient. In their last minute victory over Michigan State, Koenig shot 53% from the field and scored 27 points. In their road upset over Iowa, Koenig was 4-6 from the field with 15 points. His three-point percentage is almost at 41 percent, higher than its ever been. For Wisconsin to advance and make a March run, Koenig needs to pick his spots and be an efficient shooter.

More busting brackets: Best Jayhawks team's in the last 12 years

Wisconsin is currently projected as a seven seed in Joe Lunardi’s “Bracketology.” They face a tough road contest this weekend at Purdue to wrap up conference play, but make no mistake, this team will be dangerous in March. They are a much improved version of themselves and have the depth, experience and ability to make some noise.