The Summit League basketball tournament will tip-off on Saturday in Souix Falls, SD.
The Summit League saw two teams enter in a dead heat for the number one seed and favored position. Indiana University-Purdue University-Fort Wayne and South Dakota State both finished regular season play at 12-4, with the IPFW Mastodons getting the top spot by the slimmest of margins.
IPFW team features a terrifying guard trio in Max Landis, Mo Evans, and John Konchar. If these three played on Power 5 team, the media would be all over them. They combine to score 50 points a game (in addition to two other double figure scorers), giving the team the offensive firepower to outgun almost any opponent.
The two primary challengers are South Dakota State and Nebraska-Omaha. Each team has led the Summit at different times this year. Omaha faltered a bit down the final stretch, but still lights up the scoreboard enough to ensure a quality run in Sioux Falls.
After these teams, IUPUI and North Dakota State round out the schools who finished at least .500 in conference play, but neither should threaten the three names above them.
If you want to watch one player outside of the top three schools, try watching Oral Roberts‘ Obi Emegano. The junior guard is an absolute fireball on offense. He averages 23.4 points and 5.1 assists. He gets almost no offensive help, but his ability to score against any defense is worth watching.
The first round matchup I would keep my eye on is IUPUI-North Dakota State. The matchup will largely center around the Bison and their top-30 defense in points allowed. Given the greater balance and depth for NDSU, I like their chances to pull the 5 over 4 “upset”. The other three matchups slant hard in favor of the higher seed, so if any team gets upset, it’s the fourth-place IUPUI Jaguars.
With all that laid out, we’ll journey to the summit of the league, starting at the bottom. Quick note: last place Western Illinois did not qualify for the postseason after finished 3-13 in league play.
Next: 8: South Dakota Coyotes
8. South Dakota Coyotes
South Dakota finished 5-11 to finish eight in conference play. They went 2-3 over their last five, but did upset both NDSU and IUPUI in their two final victories. Their reward for making the tournament is a date with first place Fort Wayne on Saturday.
The Coyotes are pretty bad at 210th in KenPom, but have a respectable 137th ranking in Adjusted Offense to go with 280th in Adjusted D and 192nd in RPI. Three players, Tre Burnette, Casey Kasperbauer, and Shy McClelland are the three leading scorers in double figures. As a team, USD shoots a very respectable 47% from the field and 36% from range. Kasperbauer in particular has a mark of 41% on the year.
South Dakota probably doesn’t have the sheer firepower to overcome Fort Wayne, but the Mastodons will have to work to keep the nine deep and efficient eight-seed from pulling off an upset in what is essentially a home game for the underdog.
Next: 7. Oral Roberts Golden Eagles
7. Oral Roberts Golden Eagles
Oral Roberts finished seventh in Summit play after going 6-10. They come into the tournament on a two game road losing streak, eager to upset South Dakota State in their opening game. The Golden Eagles lost both matchups in the regular season, so they’ll be driven to exploit the SDSU in their third meeting.
ORU is a mediocre team. They are 175th in KenPom, 125th AdjO, 235th AdjD, but a surprising 144th in RPI. Obi Emegano and his 23 points and five rebounds are the show here.
The only other player averaging double figures is center Albert Owens. The team does go nine deep and is another good shooting squad with percentages of 46/37/75. Five of those players hit three more than 37% of their shots, so you can’t sit back on these guys and hope they miss.
I don’t see Oral Roberts upsetting SDSU. The shoot efficiently, but nobody seems to consistently take the pressure off Emegano. South Dakota State is too balanced and experienced to let a lower seed surprise them.
Someone like post Brandon Conley or Jalen Bradley from the wing will have to show up and provide a third scoring threat to keep their opponent from keying on the two leading scorers.
Next: 6: Denver Pioneers
6. Denver Pioneers
Denver ended the season in sixth place at 7-9. They will take on Omaha in what will be a contest of wills between offense and defense. The two teems split the regular season series on each other’s home court.
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The Pioneers rank 202nd overall on KenPom, 196th AdjO, 210th AdjD, and 197th in RPI. Joe Rosga, Nate Engesser,and Marcus Byrd lead the team in scoring and all shoot near 50% from the field. The team goes about nine deep and combines to shoot 48/39/77 (total %/FT%/3pt%) from all areas of the court.
It’s interesting to see a team that can shoot so well rate near the absolute bottom in terms of pace. They are 350th in adjusted tempo at a molasses-like 61.8 possessions per game.
The matchup against Omaha will depend entirely on who dictates the pace. Denver is like watching paint dry, while Omaha is among the fastest teams in America. Rosga is one of the team’s leaders in steals and will be trying to disrupt the flow on his defensive assignments.
If Denver can keep Omaha from exploding they are efficient enough to win their first round, but I just don’t see that happening.
Next: 5: North Dakota State Bison
5. North Dakota State Bison
Last year’s Summit champ took a step back this year, finishing fifth at 8-8 in league play. The Bison play IUPUI in the coin-flip 4/5 game. If they win that game they will play the winner of IPFW-South Dakota in the semifinals.
NDSU is 151st in KenPom, 224th AdjO, 93rd AdjD, and 143rd in RPI. The Bison are slow and not especially efficient compared to two years ago when they upset Oklahoma.
Paul Miller, A.J. Jacobson, and Kory Brown are the three double digit scoring leaders for the team. The squad combines to shoot 45/34/67 from all areas.
The Bison rely on a defense ranked in the top 30 in points allowed on ESPN on top of their top 100 adjusted defense. One thing to note: Miller has been out since February 4th with a knee injury, but could return for their first round game on Sunday.
The Bison definitely have the experience to push past the Jaguars toward the semifinals. The five returning contributors from last year’s NCAA team means that this team knows what it takes to win tough games on big stages.
The problem is that this team can’t score at the same rate to keep up with high-powered offenses. If they want to beat IPFW or their opponent in the finals, their defense will have to be superb and they will have to hope for a cold night from the other team’s scorers. They’ll play the Mastodons tough, but I still see a loss in a close, low-scoring semifinal game.
Next: 4: IUPUI Jaguars
4. IUPUI Jaguars
IUPUI won their final game of the year against IPFW to finish 9-7 and fourth in the Summit. The Jaguars will take on defending champs North Dakota State, a team with whom they split with in the regular season.
The Jags from Indianapolis are 198th in KenPom, 247th AdjO, 162nd AdjD, and 181st in RPI. Darell Combs and Matt O’Leary are the two double figure scorers for this team. Combs in particular averages 16.3 ppg on 43% shooting including 42% from three. The rest of the team is filled with subpar shooters, combining for just 43% as a group from the floor. Very few numbers trend in favor of this school to have me pick them to win their first game.
IUPUI will beat NDSU only if Combs carries the team and gets help from potential sharpshooter, Nick Osborne (who hits 45% of his three’s). North Dakota State is the defending tournament champions so it will take a huge effort from the Jaguars.
Next: 3: Omaha Mavericks
3. Omaha Mavericks
The Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks finished conference play at 10-6 after losing two of their final three games. The enter the Summit League Tournament as the three seed taking on Denver. Provide they win their first round game, they will play the winner of South Dakota State-Oral Roberts.
The Mavs are 135th in KenPom, 89th AdjO, 216th AdjD, and 134th in RPI. They are also 6th in adjusted tempo, so they love to run the floor and shoot quickly. Four players average double figures for the squad: Devin Patterson, Jake White, Tre’Shawn Thurman, and Tra-Deon Hollins put up over 12 points per contest.
One player that stands out is White, who hits threes at an astounding 51% as a 6’8″ forward. As a team the Mavericks shoot 47% from the floor and 34% from three, but get almost 10 steals per game to increase their scoring opportunities.
I love the potential that Omaha shows. They are an electric team that would be fun to watch in the NCAA tournament, but unfortunately will probably get slotted into the NIT.
They should be able to beat the slower Pioneers, but their potential semifinal opponent (SDSU) has more balance, better shooting, and takes good care of the ball.
If Omaha can’t force turnovers, they will have a more difficult time beating the steadier team. Patterson will have to score in bunches and get support from the versatile White and Hollins to sneak into the finals, but I see a double-digit loss against South Dakota State.
Next: 2: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2. South Dakota State Jackrabbits
The Jackrabbits from Brookings, SD finished tied for the Summit lead at 12-4, but lost the tiebreaker and received the tournament’s second seed. They open against Oral Roberts, whom they should beat handily. They will then take on the winner of Omaha-Denver before the championship game.
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If SDSU wins both of those games, they will compete for their first Summit title since 2013.
South Dakota St currently sits 68th in KenPom with the 63rd AdjO, 115th AdjD, and an RPI of 42. The team has three players, George Marshall, Deondre Parks, and Mike Daum, that can score the basketball. Each averages nearly 15 points per contest.
The remainder of a 10-ish deep team combines with those three for shooting percentages of 46/36/73, perfectly fine and balanced numbers. They are also one of the best rebounding teams in the conference but they don’t share the ball well.
The Jackrabbits will have a tough game against possibly Omaha in the semis, but given that the tournament takes place just an hour away from the team’s home in Brookings, the neutral site won’t mean as much.
A potential Summit final against IPFW will be one of the most exciting conference championships this year, mid-major or not. Both teams score the ball at a high rate and have balance across the board. South Dakota State has the better advanced numbers, but IPFW has the motivation of their first ever NCAA birth driving them. The Jackrabbits lose a nail-biter in the final.
Next: 1: IPFW Mastodons
1. IPFW Mastodons
I’m picking IPFW to win the Summit’s automatic bid. They lost their final regular season game, but still tied for the regular season title at 12-4.
The team opens against South Dakota, with a semifinal game versus the winner of IUPUI-NDSU. Provided that they win both of those games against defensive-minded teams, they will enter the championship game looking to reach the Big Dance for the first time in the team’s 41 years of existence.
The Mastodons are 125th in KenPom, 44th in AdjO, 268th AdjD, and 68th in RPI. As I mentioned in the introduction, Fort Wayne has one of the most dynamic backcourt trios in America. Max Landis, Mo Evan, and John Konchar are the team’s leading scorers, but the impressive part is that each player shoots over 42% from distance. You can’t give these guys an inch of breathing room with those numbers.
Michael Calder and Joe Reed round out five players averaging double figures for the team. The nine regular rotation guys combine to shoot 47/42/72 from the field, three, and free-throw areas, respectively. Offense is not an issue for this squad.
Fort Wayne has a lot of obstacles ahead of them. They don’t play great defense and will likely play both teams from the state in which the tournament is held. They don’t have the experience of deep postseason runs, but this is their best and most balanced team in years.
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They have their ultimate goal in sight with just three games between them and postseason glory. This team is explosive and hungry and I think they’ll reach their goal of playing on the biggest stage during March Madness.