The Horizon League basketball tournament will feature one of the most well-known mid-major teams as well as one of the few mid-major players getting national attention.
The Horizon League features a team and a player that are both receiving unnatural amounts of attention from the national media, at least when it comes to a mid-major conference. Top-seed Valparaiso and Horizon League Player of the Year Kahlil “Kay” Felder have been bringing the Horizon League exposure that it hasn’t seen since Butler departed.
Valparaiso put itself into consideration for an at-large berth to the NCAA Tournament with an impressive record and a win over potential NCAA tournament team Oregon State. The Crusaders are 26-5 overall and 16-2 in Horizon League play. The team certainly looks the part of an at-large candidate, though with only one win that will truly impress the committee and three losses that are likely to be looked down upon, the Crusaders will likely fall short of the Big Dance without the league’s autobid.
While Valpo was making its case for a tournament berth, Kay Felder was making his case for national awards. Felder is an electrifying guard who often put Oakland on his back to will them to impressive wins. He had an incredible run of 20+ point scoring performances that lasted from Oakland’s final game last year until a late January matchup with Milwaukee.
Felder’s Oakland team is the second team that figures to be a strong favorite to earn the league’s NCAA Tournament autobid. Both Valparaiso and Oakland should benefit greatly from the fact that the Horizon League rewards its top two seeds with trips straight to the league semifinals, but Oakland has an additional advantage over most of the rest of the field.
For the first time since 2002, the Horizon League tournament will take place at a neutral-court venue. During the offseason, the Horizon League reached a five year agreement with Joe Louis Arena to host its league tournament. That means that 2-seed Oakland — named after the county in Michigan, not the city in California — and 6-seed Detroit will be playing less than an hour from home.
Let’s check out how the teams look to finish in the Horizon League Tournament – (these teams are ranked in order by how far they are capable of making it in the tournament, not seeding).
Next: 10. Cleveland State
10: Cleveland State Vikings
The Vikings finished above UIC in Horizon League play, but clearly look like the least likely team to pull an upset in the conference tournament. Cleveland State’s four Horizon League wins all came against other teams near the bottom of the standings. Even UIC, which hadn’t won a game against Division I competition until a late January matchup with CSU, managed to pick off one of the teams that will be a legitimate candidate to do damage in the conference tournament.
It’s a disappointing situation for the Vikings, who could have given conference champion Valparaiso a serious fight if it weren’t for players leaving the program. There are currently five players on higher profile teams who began their careers at Cleveland State. Louisville’s Trey Lewis, Michigan State’s Bryn Forbes, Wichita State’s Anton Grady, UNLV’s Ike Nwamu and Providence’s Junior Lomomba could all be playing for Gary Waters’ team if they hadn’t left the program.
Especially frustrating for the Vikings is that three of those players used exceptions to the traditional transfer in order to become immediately eligible at their new schools. Nwamu and Lomomba transferred out the traditional way, sitting a year before taking the court for their new teams. But Forbes used a hardship waiver to become immediately eligible while Grady and Lewis graduated before running out of eligibility and were able to use the relatively new graduate transfer exception.
Instead of a crop of very talented seniors, the Vikings are led by Horizon League All-Freshman Team member Rob Edwards. Edwards is a promising player, but the team could certainly use the scoring punch that its five departed veterans could provide. Cleveland State ranks 341st in the nation for offensive efficency.
With an anemic offense and no demonstrated ability to beat a team that’s notably better than it from a talent perspective, you can probably safely rule out a deep Cleveland State run through the Horizon League tournament.
Next: 9: UIC
9: UIC Flames
UIC’s youth and a coaching change made the 2015-16 season a difficult one for the Flames. The team went winless in non-conference play aside from a pair of wins over non-Division I opponents. After that, the team played every team in the Horizon League once without a win.
But the Flames showed significant growth on the second run through their conference foes. 12 days after picking up its first win in the league, UIC pulled the biggest upset of the Horizon League season when it took down eventual 3-seed Wright State. The Flames’ win wound up bumping the Raiders down into a tie for second place in the conference, and due to tiebreakers caused Billy Donlon’s team to lose the double-bye into the Horizon League semifinals.
Two days later, UIC beat Northern Kentucky to get a win streak going in Horizon League play and Wright State finished off a sweep of Valparaiso. As if it’s not bizarre enough that UIC got its second Division I win of the season against one of the league’s top teams, it actually managed to beat a team that gave borderline at-large candidate Valparaiso both of the losses in its 16-2 Horizon League record.
While it’s highly unlikely that the Flames will knock off Wright State again, the team has at least proven an ability to knock off legitimate contenders in the league. With that in mind, I think UIC will stand a better chance to pull the upset than the Vikings.
Next: 8: Youngstown State
8: Youngstown State Penguins
In the early stages of Horizon League play, this season looked like it could be a breakout year for the Penguins. Youngstown State picked up a huge win at Oakland, the Golden Grizzlies first home loss as a member of the Horizon League, and a nice home win over Green Bay.
It’s 2-2 record might not have seemed like much, but this is a team that has finished above .500 in Horizon League play just once since joining the league. Additionally, there were concerns that after going 2-14 in league play and losing four of its top five scorers the Penguins would post one of the worst seasons the Horizon League had ever seen. Instead, it looked like Youngstown State could be a huge surprise in the league and flirt with a .500 record.
Since then, Youngstown State’s season has been more in line with expectations. The Penguins have gone 4-12 down the stretch. In that time they’ve only picked up wins over fellow cellar dwellers Northern Kentucky, UIC and Cleveland State.
Between Youngstown State’s recent lack of big wins and Detroit playing the tournament less than 10 miles from its home court, the Penguins seem like a long shot to advance to the Horizon League Quarterfinals.
Next: 7: Northern Kentucky
7: Northern Kentucky Norse
First year Horizon League member Northern Kentucky is in a strange spot. The Norse are in the fourth year of a transition up from Division II. As a result, the team is currently ineligible for the postseason.
That means that if the 8-seed Norse make a Cinderella run to a Horizon League Tournament title, the league’s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament will go to regular season champion Valparaiso.
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Despite winning just nine games all season, the Norse look to be capable of playing spoiler at least once in the upcoming tournament. Northern Kentucky has given its first round opponent Milwaukee fits this year.
In early January, the Norse jumped out to a quick double-digit lead on the Panthers. Milwaukee eventually recovered, but the game remained a nail-biter until Northern Kentucky was forced to foul in the final two minutes and Milwaukee came away with a 76-67 victory.
The rematch in February was the antithesis of the first meeting. This time, Milwaukee jumped out to the double-digit first half lead and the Norse had to battle back. With a balanced attack, they did just that. Northern Kentucky put the game away in the closing seconds with a 3-pointer that pushed its lead to two possessions and eventually gave the Norse a 75-71 win.
Given how close Northern Kentucky is to being 2-0 against Milwaukee, it’s very possible that they’ll end the Panthers’ season on Saturday.
Next: 6: Detroit
6: Detroit Titans
Detroit is the biggest beneficiary of the league’s decision to play every game of the Horizon League tournament in one building. The 6-seed Titans play home games less than 20 minutes away from Joe Louis Arena.
With what amounts to a pair of home games before a potential matchup with in-state rival Oakland, Detroit is one of the top candidates to throw the Horizon League Tournament bracket into a state of chaos.
Led by First Team All-Conference forward Paris Bass, the Titans have wins over 5-seed Milwaukee and 3-seed Wright State in the tournament’s host city. Bass, who averaged 18.7 points and 7.7 rebounds on the season, has been on an absolute tear of late. In his last 7 games, the 6-foot-8 sophomore is averaging 22.9 points and per game while hitting 51.7% of his shots.
With the home court advantage, the Titans should be able to get by first round opponent Youngstown State. The Penguins picked up a pair of big wins early, but the team hasn’t managed a win over a top-6 opponent since. Detroit could definitely knock off 3-seed Wright State while playing in its own backyard, but expect the Raiders to win the rubber match.
Next: 5: Green Bay
5: Green Bay Phoenix
Green Bay’s fourth place finish was a big surprise. The Phoenix were pegged for sixth place in the league after losing the two-time defending Horizon League Player of the Year Keifer Sykes and head coach Brian Wardle. The up-tempo offense that newly-hired head coach Linc Darner ran at Florida Southern seemed like a poor fit for Green Bay’s roster.
But the team adjusted well, largely thanks to First Team All-Conference senior guard Carrington Love. Love paced the team with 18.3 points, 3.5 assists and 2.5 steals per game. The Phoenix earned the 4-seed by beating the teams they were supposed to beat. Green Bay split with 5-seed Milwaukee and 7-seed Youngstown State, but swept every other team below it in the standings and picked up a home win over 3-seed Wright State to offset the YSU loss.
Given its more favorable first round matchup, Green Bay is probably the safe pick to hold seed and advance to the league semifinals. But the matchup between top-seed Valpo and Green Bay’s in-state rival Milwaukee seems to be the one that could cause the Crusaders more problems.
So in the interest of fun, the Phoenix will have to settle for a quarterfinal appearance in this projection.
Next: 4: Milwaukee
4: Milwaukee Panthers
Milwaukee might be the most interesting team in the league tournament this year. The Panthers’ lineup features two seniors and three juniors, good size for a mid-major, and five starters who can shoot. Everything about that reads like a potential Cinderella in the NCAA Tournament, not a team hoping to play spoiler in the Horizon League Tournament.
The Panthers seem to be a better team than their record and the league standings indicate. KenPom rates Milwaukee 115th in the nation, third best in the league behind Valparaiso and Oakland. While Wisconsin didn’t look like the at-large team it’s turned into, Milwaukee beat the Badgers in the Kohl Center. All 12 of its losses have come by 14 points or fewer, with 10 coming by eight points or less and eight being decided by a single possession or in overtime.
In short, Milwaukee is a team that will likely be competitive with whichever team ultimately ends its season. The Panthers have been prone to giving up big runs from opponents, so it wouldn’t be a shock to see them lose Saturday.
Still, if Milwaukee can avoid spotting its opponents a double-digit lead and a few of its starters stay hot from long range, the Panthers could be the wild card that flips the Horizon League Tournament on its head.
Next: 3: Wright State
3: Wright State Raiders
If the bracket holds true to form, 3-seed Wright State will essentially be playing a road game against 6-seed Detroit in the Horizon League quarterfinals. While its last trip to Michigan didn’t end well — the Raiders got crushed 89-63 by Oakland and lost 75-68 to Detroit — the WSU is a good team that can’t easily be shut down defensively.
Wright State’s balanced offense makes it a tough team to defend. Nobody on the team averages more than Mark Alstork‘s 12.6 points per game, while sixth man and sixth leading scorer Biggie Minnis adds 7.1 points per game. The inability to key in on one player offensively is a large part of what made Wright State into a surprise title contender.
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If you need further evidence of that, look at the team’s pair of wins over Valparaiso. Joe Thomasson — a Horizon League All-Defensive Team member who averages 9.8 points per game — led the way for the Raiders in both games. Thomasson, who is fourth on the team in scoring, scored 21 points in a comfortable 73-62 home win and tallied a team-high 14 in a much less comfortable 61-59 win at Valparaiso.
Wright State’s balance was also reflected in the Horizon League’s postseason awards. Despite finishing tied for second in the league, the Raiders’ only honoree was Thomasson on the All-Defensive team. In total, seven of the 10 players who were named First or Second-Team All-Horizon League came from teams ranked lower than Billy Donlon’s team.
The Raiders are a tough team to figure out. With wins over Valparaiso and losses to teams in the bottom half of the league, anything could happen when the team takes the court. But the Raiders’ balance should be enough to help the team make a trip to the Horizon League semifinals and a matchup with Oakland.
Next: 2: Valparaiso
2: Valparaiso Crusaders
By every metric available, Valparaiso is the best team in the Horizon League and it’s not close. The team went 16-2 in Horizon League play, winning the league by three games and earning an automatic double-bye into the Horizon League semifinals.
This was no surprise after the Crusaders, who had a chance to knock off 5-seed Maryland in the 2015 NCAA Tournament, returned every significant contributor from last year’s team. With their current resume, the Crusaders wouldn’t be an outlandish pick for an at-large bid.
Unfortunately for Bryce Drew’s team, if they lose in the conference tournament it would take a shocking move from the selection committee to send Valpo to the Big Dance.
While Valparaiso’s 8-1 record in its second trip through the Horizon League matched its record through the first nine games, the team looked far less dominant. Through nine games in league play, the only game that Valparaiso didn’t win by at least 12 points was the loss at Wright State.
In the second half of league play, Wright State dealt the Crusaders their first home loss of the entire season and three other teams managed to stay within striking distance until the final buzzer. Oakland hit a 3-pointer at the buzzer to lose 85-84 at Valparaiso, Milwaukee nearly hit a layup to win at the buzzer before losing 80-76 in overtime, and Green Bay held a lead in the closing seconds before Shane Hamnick hit a 3-pointer with four seconds to play for the 70-68 win.
After seeming nearly unstoppable for most of the Horizon League season, Valparaiso’s aura of dominance is gone. Wright State proved that its first win over the Crusaders wasn’t a fluke, and several other teams have come close to pulling the upset. If a pair of the league’s top teams get a third crack at Valpo, it’s easy to imagine the Crusaders falling short of their great expectations for this season.
The Horizon League’s decision to play its tournament in Detroit could prove costly for a Valparaiso team that probably needed one more good win or one less “bad” loss to be a candidate for an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. Valpo will likely have to decide between rooting for a talented Oakland team playing a de facto home game or a Wright State team that has been its kryptonite this season to play for a chance at the NCAA Tournament.
Next: 1: Oakland
1: Oakland Golden Grizzlies
Like Valparaiso, 2-seed Oakland will have the advantage of a double-bye directly into the semifinals of the Horizon League tournament.
Unlike Valparaiso, the Grizzlies will also be playing less than 40 minutes from campus. Oakland hasn’t been great at home this year, going just 5-4 at home in Horizon League play after posting an undefeated 8-0 record at the O’rena in league play last year.
But in the team’s one neutral site game in Michigan, the Golden Grizzlies took top-ranked Michigan State — which was admittedly playing without National Player of the Year candidate Denzel Valentine — to overtime before falling 99-93.
The Grizzlies are led by standout point guard Kahlil “Kay” Felder. Felder leads the nation in assists with 9.4 per game, and is fourth in scoring with 24.4 points per game. He’s an electrifying talent who has a tendency to show up biggest when the lights are brightest.
In Oakland’s three marquee non-conference games, Felder was phenomenal. The 5-foot-9 junior scored 38 points, dished out nine assists and got up for six rebounds in a 97-83 road beatdown of Washington. Three days later, his 37 points and nine assists were the catalyst for Oakland in its overtime loss to Michigan State. Eight days later, he dropped 30 on Virginia, though Oakland was far less competitive in that game and lost 71-58.
It’s very difficult to beat a good team three times in a season, and Oakland has proven over the course of the year that it’s definitely a good team.
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With the home court advantage that the league’s new neutral site home gives the Golden Grizzlies, it seems like Kay Felder‘s team is poised to go to the Big Dance this year.