Busting Brackets
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ACC Basketball: Conference tournament preview

By Matt Ostrowski

Mar 5, 2016; Durham, NC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Roy Williams questions a call by the officials in the second half of their game against the Duke Blue Devils at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Dolejs-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 5, 2016; Durham, NC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Roy Williams questions a call by the officials in the second half of their game against the Duke Blue Devils at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Dolejs-USA TODAY Sports /
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Feb 27, 2016; Charlottesville, VA, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels forward Brice Johnson (11) shoots the ball over Virginia Cavaliers forward Anthony Gill (13) in the first half at John Paul Jones Arena. The Cavaliers won 79-74. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 27, 2016; Charlottesville, VA, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels forward Brice Johnson (11) shoots the ball over Virginia Cavaliers forward Anthony Gill (13) in the first half at John Paul Jones Arena. The Cavaliers won 79-74. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports /

3. North Carolina

North Carolina is the one-seed in the ACC Tournament, but I only see them as the third most likely team to take the crown this weekend. Why? Because March is a month that is dominated by guards, and North Carolina dominates with big men.

I’m not saying they’re doomed, though. Brice Johnson is fantastic, and so is Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks. But now that the games get more intense, that trio is going to see more double teams and the Heels can’t throw the ball into the ocean from the perimeter. They shot just 28 percent from three in ACC play.

To make matters even worse, Marcus Paige, who is usually their most reliable threat from outside, is just eight for his last 38 from beyond the arc.

Replacing Theo Pinson with Joel Berry in the starting lineup earlier this year has helped, but not totally alleviated this issue, and on any other team in the country, Berry probably wouldn’t even be close to the best shooter on the team.

Do I think North Carolina is in big trouble in the ACC and NCAA Tournament? Not exactly. Do I think they could be a candidate for an early exit? Absolutely. With all that being said, they’re still a very good team that dominates the glass.

But I just don’t see them spreading the floor enough to win the ACC Tournament this weekend. They open up the ACC Tournament Thursday against the winner of Pitt vs. Syracuse.

Next: Number two