Kansas Basketball: Is Devonte’ Graham the key for Jayhawks?
Devonte’ Graham had a strong closing stretch last season for Kansas basketball.
As Devonte’ Graham dove for a loose ball in the Kansas Jayhawks’ eventual loss to Villanova in the Elite Eight, he undercut Villanova’s Josh Hart, and the referee whistled Graham for his fifth foul of the game, disqualifying him.
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It was an inexplicable occurance from Graham, who had fouled out just once in his previous 66 games as a Jayhawk. He had picked up four fouls in a game just four times previously. There couldn’t have been worse timing for Graham to have an outlier of a game like this.
Yet, as Graham fouled out, with Kansas down 56-54, many Jayhawk fans knew it was the end. But how could the disqualification of someone who averaged 11 points per game last season, good for fourth on the team, signal the end for a team that was so deep?
For starters, Graham’s confidence was sky-high, and he was shooting lights out since February. He shot 45 percent from three point range in that span, and he launched over five threes per game as well. So this was no small sample size.
Graham’s late-season surge even earned him MVP honors at the Big 12 Conference Tournament, after a 27 point performance in the championship win over West Virginia.
Graham’s effort on defense was as consistent as any perimeter player for the Jayhawks. He averaged 1.4 steals per game on the season, and was frequently tasked with guarding the best guard on the other team.
On February 13, Graham was given the job of guarding Buddy Hield in the rematch between Kansas and Oklahoma. In the previous game between the two, Hield almost went for 46 points in a historic college basketball performance. But Graham held Hield to 24 points in the second game, and even put up 27 himself.
On the season, Graham was first among the Jayhawks’ rotation player in box plus/minus, with a BPM of 9.9. This means that Graham contributed 9.9 more points per 100 possessions than the league average player. Essentially, he was the Jayhawks’ most valuable player.
So what does this mean for next season? Graham comes back to the Jayhawks along with his backcourt partner Frank Mason III. With Graham and Mason both returning, Bill Self gets both of his point guards back.
Wayne Selden Jr. left for the NBA Draft, but Josh Jackson, the nation’s consensus number-one recruit, figures to step right into Selden’s spot without the Jayhawks missing much of a beat.
But Bill Self will still be looking towards Graham to take some of the scoring load. Perry Ellis, the teams leading scorer both this season and last, is gone. Sophomore Carlton Bragg should take his starting spot, but replacing someone like Ellis, who was the heart and soul of this team for two or so seasons, is going to be a team effort.
I’d expect Bill Self to make a concerted effort to getting Graham the ball next year. Graham’s usage rate, or the estimated percent of a team’s plays a player used when he’s on the floor, was 11th on the squad last year. The four players behind him were two offensive black holes in Jamari Traylor and Landen Lucas, and two walk-ons in Clay Young and Evan Manning.
So there weren’t really any plays ran for Graham last year. Generally, he either spotted up, or got his point in transition. Graham and Mason represented a “dual point guard” lineup, but really, Mason ran the show. And that’s fine. Frank Mason is an excellent player.
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But for next season, Devonte Graham has a chance to be even better. If Bill Self runs some plays for him, or lets him run some pick and rolls as the ball handler, Graham could burst onto the scene. If Kansas wins the Big 12 again, we could be looking at a dark horse candidate for Big 12 Player of the Year.