Bracketology: Updated Bubble Watch and the Mailbag

After the Bracket Reveal and a new Bracketology, the Bubble Watch is back to look at what is the biggest bubble in some time.

Welcome to another edition of the Bubble Watch and our mailbag!

In our mailbag, I took to Twitter looking for questions regarding Bracketology, the bubble, or just the general college basketball world. Below, I answer the questions I received prior to getting into the Bubble Watch for this week.

If you still have questions about any of these topics, we’ll be back soon for another edition. Well, without further ado, let’s get started.

This is a very interesting case. With the way that Virginia Tech’s schedule finishes out, I don’t think it safe to stop worrying until the regular season comes to a close. The Hokies have a major opportunity for a signature win against Louisville in their next game, which would make them very comfortably in the tournament, but their next four to close the season could be difficult.

With Clemson (home), Boston College (not a tough opponent, but on the road), Miami (home), and Wake Forest (home) to close, the strength of schedule isn’t the best it can be in the ACC. Yet, if the Hokies can finish 3-2 or better down the stretch (which would include a road win over BC), I think it would be safe to feel very comfortable about making the tournament and probably as a single-digit seed.

The bubble is very hard to judge with just under a month to play, but it seems like Va Tech is the type of team that will rise above the rest and find themselves on the right side of the cutline come Selection Sunday.

As the season closes for the Razorbacks, their two biggest games are definitely facing both South Carolina and Florida on the road. These are extremely difficult games, and even splitting them would be a huge win. Arkansas was in my next four in section on Monday and with how the rest of the bubble has played recently, I think avoiding any poor losses is the key for them.

To do so, going 4-2 down the stretch and adding one win in the conference tournament should do the trick. This would move them to 23-9 on the season, with another quality win added to the resume (SC, UF, or Georgia). The bubble is a rapidly changing scene at the current moment, so it is hard to predict what the teams around Arkansas will do, but as long as the Razorbacks take care of business, they will be just fine.

I think that with the talent Indiana has had (regardless of injuries this year) in the past, I think Tom Crean is the next guy to go. He has done some extremely good things in terms of recruiting and has had some really good regular seasons, but this year has been disappointing and the Hoosiers have never gone far in the postseason with him at the helm.

They have made the tournament four times (in eight years, this is year nine) under Crean, and have won the Big Ten regular season title twice, but their longest run in the Big Dance is to the Sweet 16, which he has done twice. Crean has done a pretty good job, but with how prestigious the Indiana job is, making two Sweet 16’s is likely not going to cut it.

Strictly because of how odd this year is for the bubble, I am going to say yes. After two somewhat difficult road games (Miami and Virginia Tech), the Tigers close with three straight home games, all of which are very winnable, despite playing the powerful Seminoles of Florida State. The bubble is extremely open-ended at the moment, and Clemson has a lot of solid opportunities that some teams do not have.

If the Tigers can somehow finish 4-1, then they would likely make the tournament, but both 2-3 and 3-2 would keep them firmly on the bubble. Clemson is one of my favorite teams to watch this season, and I hope they that they find a way into the field, but it is far from a guarantee. With four wins over the RPI top-50, they have to be capable of beating good teams, but how much can their SOS keep them afloat?

That concludes our mailbag for this week, so let’s get into the Bubble Watch. Once again, here is a brief look at how the system works.

Categories for the Bubble Watch:

Lead-Pipe Lock: These are teams that are guaranteed to make the tournament and there is such a small likelihood that they miss the tournament that they are categorized as “locks.”

Some Perspiration: These are teams that should make the tournament. They are likely already in the Bracketology prior to this Bubble Watch and are usually in with room to spare.

Better Double Up On The Deodorant: These teams are very much on the fence. They could be in the tournament at the time, but there is very little room between them being in and them being out. Most of these teams are out of the tournament looking for wins to play their way in.

Also, if there is a team not mentioned in this edition of the Bubble Watch that should be, don’t worry. There is plenty of time left for teams to work their way up onto the bubble and potentially into the tournament. This Bubble Watch takes into account results through February 14th.

For any questions or comments on this Bubble Watch, tweet your thoughts at @BustingBrackets or @hardwiredsports (that’s me!).