Bracketology: Bubble Watch, Conference Tournament Week One

As conference tournament season begins, let’s see which teams are still sitting on the cutline for Bracketology in this edition of the Bubble Watch.

With under two weeks until Selection Sunday, we are closing in on the end of the Bubble Watch for this season. Once again, I asked for you all to send me questions for the mailbag on twitter (@hardwiredsports), and those answers are just below.

Before getting going, here is an important notice about the format of this Bubble Watch: Games played against either a team currently in the projected field or sitting on the bubble count as a game against a potential tournament team. This record is now a part of each team’s brief resume in the Bubble Watch. Also, RPI and SOS numbers are found via CBS.

Here is our twitter mailbag for the week:

I think the answer is yes. MTSU has a bigger cushion at the moment because they have two high-quality wins (UNC-Wilmington, Vanderbilt) for a mid-major, but both should make the tournament even if they fall in their respective championship games. This is, however, assuming those championship games come against the other top teams in each of their conferences.

For Middle Tennessee, this would mean losing to a team like Louisiana Tech, who is 21-9. Illinois State, on the other hand, would have a far tougher challenge in Wichita State waiting on them in the MVC final.

Regardless, if either team loses their conference championship game, it would be a shame if they did not make the tournament. At this point, I think fans would rather see a 25+ win mid-major than say, the type of team that I am going to talk about in the next question.

Question 2: Does a team with 14 or more losses make the tournament this year? (Asked by @luke_ockwood)

First of all, I am going to answer this question in regards to getting an at-large bid, as it is possible that any 14+ loss team could go dancing by winning their conference tournament. If, however, any team secures an at-large with 14 or more losses, I think it will be Vanderbilt. They could easily finish with the best strength of schedule in the country and five or six wins over the RPI top-50. This would include them winning at their home gym against Florida in their season finale, but that is definitely possible.

As for the other teams currently sitting at 13 or 14 losses, nobody has as high of an RPI or SOS as Vanderbilt, which really helps the Commodores. For example, Syracuse has 13 losses at the moment, but has an RPI just inside of 80. To answer the question, I think that whether or not a 14-loss team can receive an at-large bid might come down to Florida at Vanderbilt on March 4th.

That wraps up the mailbag for this week, so let’s get into the Bubble Watch.

Categories for the Bubble Watch:

Lead-Pipe Lock: These are teams that are guaranteed to make the tournament and there is such a small likelihood that they miss the tournament that they are categorized as “locks.”

Some Perspiration: These are teams that should make the tournament. They are already in the most recent projected bracket and are usually in with room to spare.

Better Double Up On The Deodorant: These teams are truly on the fence. They might be in at the moment, but even the smallest of changes could boot them out. Most of these teams are out of the tournament looking for wins to play their way in.

It is unlikely that a team makes a rise this late in the season onto the bubble if they are not on right now, but in college basketball, the extraordinary becomes ordinary, so someone can still make that jump. This edition of the Bubble Watch takes into account results through February 28th.