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2017 American Athletic Conference: Five bold predictions for tournament

By Daniel Benjamin

Feb 25, 2017; Hartford, CT, USA; Southern Methodist Mustangs guard Shake Milton (1) works the ball against Connecticut Huskies guard Christian Vital (1) in the second half at XL Center. SMU defeated UConn 69-61. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 25, 2017; Hartford, CT, USA; Southern Methodist Mustangs guard Shake Milton (1) works the ball against Connecticut Huskies guard Christian Vital (1) in the second half at XL Center. SMU defeated UConn 69-61. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports /
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Feb 25, 2017; Hartford, CT, USA; Southern Methodist Mustangs guard Shake Milton (1) works the ball against Connecticut Huskies guard Christian Vital (1) in the second half at XL Center. SMU defeated UConn 69-61. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 25, 2017; Hartford, CT, USA; Southern Methodist Mustangs guard Shake Milton (1) works the ball against Connecticut Huskies guard Christian Vital (1) in the second half at XL Center. SMU defeated UConn 69-61. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports /

The American Athletic Conference tournament is set to begin its fourth edition on Thursday at the XL Center in Hartford, Connecticut.

The AAC tournament appears to be a two-team race between 12th-ranked SMU (27-4, 17-1) and No. 15 Cincinnati (27-4, 16-2). The Mustangs and Bearcats have been far and away the best two teams in the conference.

SMU has won 13 straight games and leads the conference with a 15.4 point margin of victory. SMU’s only loss of the season was a two-point setback at Cincinnati on Jan. 12. However, the Mustangs are just 9-4  away from home. The Mustangs have not faced the stiffest competition, as they are just 1-1 against Top-25 ranked teams – though they are 8-4 against the RPI-Top-100 ranked teams.

Cincinnati has been almost as dominant as SMU. The Bearcats have outscored their opponents by 14.5 points a game. The Bearcats’ two conference losses have come on the road to SMU and UCF. In fact, all four of Cincinnati’s losses have been on the road or on a neutral court.

SMU is the conference’s only regular season champion to also claim the conference tournament crown in the same season (2015).  The Mustangs are also the only top seed to reach the finals while Louisville (2014) is the only No. 2 seed to reach the finals.

That being said, I believe that UCF and Memphis are the biggest threats to the Mustangs and Bearcats meeting in the finals.

SMU and Cincinnati are the only two conference teams guaranteed of NCAA bid. Houston and UCF have some work to do in order to stay in the tournament conversation.