The Western Athletic Conference begins its tournament today from the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas. Will one of the favorites win or can a team steal the automatic bid?
This year, the WAC was dominated by three teams. CSU Bakersfield, who won the tournament last season, continued their conference success with a first place finish. New Mexico State followed their impressive 14-2 non-conference record with an 11-3 WAC record, tying them for second place. Grand Canyon’s transition to Division I remains a success, as the Antelopes tied the Aggies for second in the conference.
The tournament should be interesting to watch, as there are two teams that deserve a ticket to the big dance, but only one bid available for the WAC. Grand Canyon is ineligible for the postseason, as the school is still in the process of their Division I transition.
Projected Winner: New Mexico State
With Grand Canyon ineligible, the clear favorites to reach the final are New Mexico State and CSU Bakersfield. Behind these two schools, only UMKC has a winning record in conference play (8-6).
During regular season play, the two favorites each won their home game against the other. Their projected final matchup will decide both the winner of the series and the WAC auto-bid recipient.
New Mexico State, led by senior guard Ian Baker, have the best offense in the WAC. CSU Bakersfield, on the other hand, has the conference’s toughest defense.
With both teams shooting under 50 percent from the field, rebounding will be a major factor. New Mexico State has the advantage in grabbing rebounds, with two players averaging over eight rebounds.
New Mexico State has also proven its toughness, with big wins over New Mexico, Arizona State, and UC Irvine. CSU Bakersfield’s best win this year is against a decent Fresno State squad, but the team has not shown that they can consistently win tough games.
Expect the Aggies to pull out the win in their third matchup against the Roadrunners, earning a bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Team That Could Make a Run: Utah Valley
Other than Grand Canyon, the only team that has been able to beat one of the top two seeds is Utah Valley. The Wolverines were able to beat New Mexico State on the road.
Utah Valley was also able to beat BYU earlier this year, handing the Cougars a rare loss in Provo. The team also played tough games against Gonzaga, Washington State, and Utah.
It is this toughness that gives the Wolverines the best shot at challenging CSU Bakersfield and New Mexico State.
Next: Projected NCAA Tournament field
Utah Valley’s success comes when they are able to share the ball effectively and get baskets from all of their players. The Wolverines may have the most balanced scoring in the WAC, with six players averaging between 7.5 and 12.5 points per game.
If Utah Valley is able to beat UMKC, they have the passing ability to find the open man against CSU Bakersfield’s tough defense. If Bakersfield doesn’t score at a high level, we could see the Wolverines in the final.