Bracketology: Final projected bracket for Selection Sunday

Well, today is the day. Welcome to Selection Sunday and may your team be announced by the committee. In preparation, here is my last Bracketology update.

Tournament results from Saturday:

Mid-Major action
- America East – Vermont clinched the automatic bid by defeating Albany.
- MEAC – North Carolina Central secured the auto bid in beating Norfolk State.
- SWAC– Texas Southern beat Alcorn State to join the tournament field.
- MAC – Kent State upset Akron for the automatic bid.
- Big Sky – In overtime, North Dakota defeated Weber State to win the title.
- Southland – New Orleans survived an extra period against Texas A&M-CC.
- WAC – New Mexico State moved to the NCAA Tournament with a win over CSU Bakersfield.
- Big West – In the battle of “first to 50,” UC Davis secured their bid over UC Irvine.
- C-USA – Middle Tennessee avoided the surprise and got their bid.
- Sun Belt – Texas State upset UT Arlington to face Troy in the final.
- Ivy League – Princeton and Yale will battle for their spot in the Big Dance.
Pac-12 – Arizona clinched the automatic bid by defeating Oregon.
Big 12 – Iowa State clinched the automatic bid by defeating West Virginia.
Big East – Villanova continues to win championships, beating Creighton on Saturday.
Atlantic 10 – VCU will meet Rhode Island in the final.
Big Ten – The automatic bid comes down to Wisconsin and Michigan.
SEC – Arkansas knocked off Vanderbilt for shot at Kentucky and the final.
American – SMU vs. Cincinnati for the championship.
ACC – Duke went from a five seed to a champion in the ACC Tournament by beating Notre Dame.

As a preface, I want to give a quick reminder that this specific Bracketology is focused on which teams I believe the committee will announce to be in the tournament today. The selections are based on watching teams play, examining resumes, numbers, and precedents set by the committee.

That being said, the projected field entering today had a few changes. First of all, following their victory in the ACC Tournament final over Notre Dame, Duke moved up to the two line. Their movement caused Baylor to drop to a three.

There has been some chatter about Duke potentially being a one seed, but I think that the current four are pretty comfortable. Also, due to the committee’s history with Power 5 bubble teams, Kansas State moved into the projected field over Illinois State, despite a much worse RPI.

Without further introduction, let’s get into this last projected field. For any questions or comments, tweet to @hardwiredsports.

Projected Field (includes results through March 11th)

East

— Buffalo

1 Villanova
16 New Orleans/Mount St. Mary’s

8 South Carolina
9 Oklahoma State

— Milwaukee

4 Notre Dame
13 Bucknell

5 Cincinnati
12 Nevada

— Tulsa

6 Saint Mary’s
11 Wake Forest

3 Baylor
14 Florida Gulf Coast

— Greenville

7 Dayton
10 Marquette

2 Duke
15 Kent State

Midwest

Tulsa —

Kansas 1
Jacksonville State/NC Central 16

Virginia Tech 8
Arkansas 9

Milwaukee —

Butler 4
Winthrop 13

Purdue 5
Vermont 12

Indianapolis—

Iowa State 6
Providence/USC 11

Louisville 3
New Mexico State 14

Sacramento —

Creighton 7
Vanderbilt 10

Oregon 2
North Dakota 15

West

— Salt Lake City

1 Gonzaga
16 UC Davis

8 Miami
9 VCU

— Orlando

4 Florida
13 East Tennessee State

5 Minnesota
12 Rhode Island/Kansas State

— Orlando

6 Wisconsin
11 Middle Tennessee

3 Florida State
14 Iona

— Salt Lake City

7 Michigan
10 Xavier

2 Arizona
15 Texas Southern

South

Greenville —

North Carolina 1
Texas State 16

Wichita State 8
Northwestern 9

Buffalo —

West Virginia 4
Princeton 13

Virginia 5
NC-Wilmington 12

Sacramento—

SMU 6
Michigan State 11

UCLA 3
Northern Kentucky 14

Indianapolis —

Maryland 7
Seton Hall 10

Kentucky 2
South Dakota State 15

Last Four In: Providence, USC, Rhode Island, Kansas State

First Four Out: Illinois State, Syracuse, Houston, California

What can change today?

To be honest, not much. The most important result for the bracket is the final of the Atlantic 10 Tournament. VCU and Dayton are already locks in the conference, but Rhode Island’s fate is still up in the air.

The Rams are one of my last teams in the field entering the day and they need a win to feel comfortable. Obviously, they will get the automatic bid if they win, but a loss will keep them very nervous.

As for the other games today, the major conference finals will not have a major impact, as each of those teams are pretty secure on their seed line in my opinion.

The Ivy League and the Sun Belt are the only one-bid leagues with their finals remaining today, so those are also very important to the teams playing.

Next: Five takeaways from Duke versus UNC

It was a fun season going through projections with all of you, so may your team get selected for the Big Dance today and best of luck to them moving forward.

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