Busting Brackets
Fansided

2017 NCAA Tournament: How could historical trends play out this March?

By Gabby Birenbaum

Mar 12, 2017; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Rhode Island Rams guard E.C. Matthews (0) dribbles the ball against the Virginia Commonwealth Rams during the first half of the Atlantic 10 Conference Championship game at the PPG Paints Arena. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 12, 2017; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Rhode Island Rams guard E.C. Matthews (0) dribbles the ball against the Virginia Commonwealth Rams during the first half of the Atlantic 10 Conference Championship game at the PPG Paints Arena. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports /
facebooktwitterreddit
Prev
1 of 4
Next
Mar 12, 2017; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Rhode Island Rams guard E.C. Matthews (0) dribbles the ball against the Virginia Commonwealth Rams during the first half of the Atlantic 10 Conference Championship game at the PPG Paints Arena. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 12, 2017; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Rhode Island Rams guard E.C. Matthews (0) dribbles the ball against the Virginia Commonwealth Rams during the first half of the Atlantic 10 Conference Championship game at the PPG Paints Arena. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports /

With the month of March comes a litany of little-known statistics regarding historical tournament trends.

Fulfilling all trends in your bracket is nearly impossible, but historical trends can be helpful in filling out your Sweet 16, knowing how long to keep your Cinderella in the field, and figuring out when to eliminate some top teams.

According to CBS Sports, there has only been one instance in the last 20 years in which all four No. 2 seeds made it to the Sweet Sixteen: 2009. Therefore, at least one of those chalk-dusted titans should lose during the first weekend. Who will it be?

I would bet on either the Kentucky Wildcats in the South or the Louisville Cardinals in the Midwest. Simply put, they face the toughest opposition.

Assuming (which is, of course, no guarantee) that Wichita State takes care of business against Dayton despite being the lower seed, Kentucky will see the Shockers in the second round. The matchup is highly unfair to both teams, as Wichita State plays at the level of a 5-6 seed. They were under-seeded due to their lack of high-profile wins, but the Shockers, who are known for wreaking havoc come March, are polished and elite on the perimeter. Wichita State is the third-best three-point shooting team in the nation and second in the tournament, only behind Marquette. Landry Shamet, Connor Frankamp, and Markis McDuffie are two-way players who will guard tightly in the backcourt. This is a very tough draw for Kentucky and is more of a Sweet Sixteen matchup stuck in the second round.

Louisville could face either the Michigan Wolverines or the Oklahoma State Cowboys, but, for the sake of the piece, let’s go chalk and advance Michigan. This is another tough draw, as the Wolverines are one of the hottest teams in the field. Behind freak-of-nature athlete Derrick Walton Jr., who went absolutely nuts during the Wolverines’ Big Ten Tournament championship run, Michigan is shooting lights out. The Wolverines score and score often.

In addition, their defense is just starting to gel, especially as it involves creating turnovers. Also, they’ve got the whole team of destiny thing going for them. The team’s plane crashed on the way to the Big Ten tournament, resulting in a narrow survival for the team. Jarred, coach John Belien gave his players the option of sitting out the tournament. Instead, they beat everyone and hoisted a trophy. Given their near-death experience, sudden death by tourney does not seem as daunting. They will be a tough out for Louisville.

Home/March Madness