March Madness: Purdue vs. Iowa State preview, prediction, TV schedule

March Madness has a terrific matchup this evening between contrasting styles: Iowa State versus Purdue.

TV Schedule: Saturday, Mar. 18, 8:40 P.M. TBS

Arena: BMO Harris Bradley Center, Milwaukee, WI

Prediction: Iowa State 82 Purdue 76

Saturday’s nightcap game pits the Big 12’s Iowa State Cyclones and the Purdue Boilermakers out of the Big Ten. Steve Prohm leads the Cyclones against Matt Painter and the boys from West Lafayette, Indiana.

ISU used a balanced scoring attack and timely defensive stops to keep Nevada at arm’s length in a 84-73 first-round win. Monte Morris was excellent in the Cyclone victory. The nation’s most consistent point guard nearly recorded a triple-double with 19 points, eight rebounds and eight assists. Iowa State actually won the rebounding battle against the Wolf Pack despite being one of the smaller teams in the field. The Cyclones advanced past the first round for the fifth time in six years.

Purdue gutted out a tough 80-70 victory over upset-minded Vermont. Caleb Swanigan recorded yet another double-double with 16 points and 14 rebounds and Vince Edwards poured in 21 of his own to survive and advance. This was Purdue’s first first-round victory since 2012; they had lost two straight openers prior to this year.

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This second round game is a true contrast in styles. Purdue loves to go inside with their twin towers Swanigan (6’9″) and Isaac Haas (7’2″). Those two lead the team in points and rebounds and are used to compact the defense and open up looks for quality outside shots. Dakota Mathias is the most deadly shooter at 46 percent, but four guards in total hit at least 40 percent of their shots. The Boilermakers are solid on both ends, ranking in the top 25 in both adjusted offense and defense.

Where Purdue uses the interior, Iowa State is much the opposite. The Cyclones have four guards, Morris, Naz Mitrou-Long, Matt Thomas, and Deonte Burton, that can play with any group in the country. All four of those players average at least 12 points per game and hit 37 percent of their deep shots.

The Cyclones have a major size disadvantage (no rotation player stands taller than 6’8″), but they make up for it by being good passers and not turning the ball over. Iowa State is 10th in turnovers per game and Morris leads the country in assist-turnover ratio despite playing at least 35 minutes a night. ISU has a slightly better advanced offense, but the defense is lower-rated than Purdue’s.

Spacing is a big key to this game. Purdue will try and run things through the post and kick out of the double teams on Swanigan and Haas. Iowa State will swing the ball around and either drive and kick, or shoot over the defensive rotation. Both teams have capable guards, but the Cyclones are used to running the show and can handle the ball more often in crunch time. Neither team is particularly fast, so whomever can execute their offense more consistently will move on to the Sweet 16 in Kansas City.

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The Cyclones are extremely hot right now, having won 10 of their last 11. They look like a team on a mission this year and have all the pieces to win a couple more games. I like the Cyclones to outmatch the Big Ten’s Boilermakers and move on to the second weekend.

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