Grad Transfer Randy Onwuasor can score the basketball, but how will his scoring translate to the SEC? Will his addition lead to more wins for LSU?
Randy Onwuasor was one of the most coveted transfers on the market, and he has chosen to play his final season of eligibility at LSU. The 6’3 guard chose LSU over Gonzaga and South Carolina and seems poised to join the starting lineup immediately.
Onwuasor began his career at Texas Tech and transferred to Southern Utah after two seasons. He averaged 23.6ppg, 6.6rpg, and 3.2apg in his one season at Southern Utah, but the Thunderbirds were atrocious. They finished with a 6-27 record and were ranked 333rd (out of 351) in Ken Pom. Playing on a bad team allowed Onwuasor to have the ball in his hands more often which inflated his scoring average, but players can also benefit from being the star player on a bad team.
Star players see much more attention from opposing defenses and most teams in the Big Sky focused their defensive scheme around stopping Onwuasor. While this extra attention lowers Onwuasor’s shooting percentages (41% from the field, 31% from three), it helps him develop into a better player.
Most people think that putting up great numbers at a lower level is a given, but being the focal point of a bad team has its own challenges. Onwuasor had to constantly adjust to opposing defenses which makes the game much more difficult but gives you valuable experience. While Onwuasor’s talent alone did not lead to more wins for Southern Utah, the situation provided him with the necessary reps to significantly improve his game.
Southern Utah also played at a very past pace which contributed to Onwuasor’s high scoring average. The Thunderbirds were 36th in tempo according to KenPom while VCU, the team that Will Wade coached last year, were 133rd in tempo. This means that LSU should use fewer possessions which will slightly decrease their scoring averages.
Onwuasor will not average 23.6 points per game at LSU, but he should average double figures and be a key cog in the starting lineup. Onwuasor will get more open looks playing next to a quality PG like Tremont Waters which should drastically improve his efficiency. Being 22 years old also gives Onwuasor an advantage because he is more experienced and more physical than most of the players he will play against.
Recently, high volume scorers at the mid/low major level have had success when moving up to stronger conferences. For example, Andrew Rowsey averaged over 19ppg at UNC Asheville and remained productive at Marquette averaging 11.6ppg.
Matt Mobley also enjoyed success when moving to a much tougher conference. He actually increased his scoring by moving from the NEC to the Atlantic 10. Mobley averaged 17.2ppg at Central Connecticut State and averaged 18.5 at St. Bonaventure.
This shows that good players on mid and low major teams, like Onwuasor, will remain productive when transferring to tougher conferences. However, one question still lingers: will the addition of Onwuasor translate to more wins for LSU?
LSU was not competitive in Johnny Jones’ final season with the program since they finished with a 2-16 record in conference. Even though the Tigers had star guard Antonio Blakeney, their roster was one of the least talented in the SEC.
New coach Will Wade has quickly addressed the talent issue by bringing in the 16th best recruiting class in the country according to 247 sports. This ranking does not even include Onwuasor or fellow grad transfer Jeremy Combs. These newcomers will mix with a group of quality returning players. In fact, five of LSU’s top seven scorers from last season have returned including double figure scorers, Duop Reath and Brandon Sampson.
It is undeniable that LSU has significantly improved the talent on their roster, but they are also much more experienced. LSU has three seniors, a junior, and a freshman in the projected starting lineup and has players coming off the bench who played key roles last season.
Freshman Tremont Waters should provide stability to a PG position that was a major weakness last season. While there is a steep learning curve for freshman PGs, Waters will benefit from playing alongside upperclassmen and should thrive in a distributor role.
Seniors Jeremy Combs and Duop Reath will start in the frontcourt and both players were double-figure scorers last season. Reath is the leading returning scorer for LSU at 12.0ppg while Combs was highly productive at North Texas. Junior Brandon Sampson will play a huge role for a second straight season. The 6’5 junior averaged 11.6ppg last season. Aaron Epps, Wayde Sims, and Skylar Mays all played over 17 minutes per game last season and have returned to provide experience and production off the bench.
Onwuasor fills the huge hole at SG in the LSU starting lineup and gives them another scoring threat. He should average around 12 or 13 points per game which would give LSU four potential double-figure scorers. With Onwuasor and the other newcomers, the Tigers should make a jump in the standings. Making the NCAA Tournament this season seems unlikely, but, when comparing LSU’s talent to other teams’ talent, it is clear that they no longer deserve to be ranked at the bottom of the SEC.
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Predicting LSU to finish anywhere between 9th and 12th in the SEC is reasonable, but the future looks awfully bright for the Tigers.