North Carolina Basketball: Odds are against a third Final Four appearance
The math is against a third Final Four trip in a row for 2018 North Carolina Basketball.
For North Carolina Basketball, the Final Four has often been the measuring stick for success or failure of a given season. This is an old tradition dating back to the Dean Smith Era because the Tar Heels were regular participants in the highest level of college basketball competition from 1967 on through today.
There are a large number of Carolina players who saw a Final Four appearance or multiple Final Four appearances. A small number actually went to three Final Fours during their time at Carolina with Shammond Williams being the most recent player to do it (1995,1997,1998).
The Roy Williams era has seen its fair share of Final Four appearances as well. The 2005 Champs had to get through Michigan State and Illinois. The 2009 and 2017 Champs were preceded by unsuccessful Final Four appearances in 2008 and 2016.
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That small sample shows a couple of things. First, Final Four appearances have occurred five times in fourteen attempts (seasons not NCAA appearances) under Roy Williams. That is good for about 36% of the time. Every three years the Tar Heels should have a Final Four team. The data is more bunched than that, but it would still be an impressive batting average.
It also means that it would be statistically unlikely for the 2018 team to replicate that feat. A sample of the last three years would show two Final Four appearances, and it would seem time for some market correction.
Another thing working against the Tar Heels also has to do with their recent success. In the last twenty years, fifteen teams have gone to back-to-back Final Fours. That includes two different versions of Tar Heels and the last Roy Williams Kansas team (2003). However, only two schools have gone to three straight Final Fours in that span, Michigan State (1999-2001) and UCLA (2006-8).
That would be the catch. The Tar Heels have a long record of back to back Final Four teams. The team has only gone three straight years once since Dean Smith took over, the 1967-69 squads. The strong point of those rosters was their continuity, with the major players remaining essentially the same over that run with Larry Miller and Charlie Scott sharing the middle season but being their own main men otherwise.
The 2017 Heels also had a lot of continuity in personnel from the team that came within a whisker of beating Villanova in 2016. The key role players were back and Justin Jackson grew into a bigger role. That is less true this year. The 2017 team replaced two starters with bench players used to big minutes. The 2018 team will replace three starters and more depth with mostly untested (or new) pieces.
It is likely that the current run of Final Fours will pause this year. That does not mean that Tar Heel fans should be disappointed. There are a number things that will make this a fascinating season in its own right. We will see how much of a mad scientist Roy Williams is with a lot of youth to mate to the Joel Berry-Theo Pinson core.
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Also, remember that the Tar Heels have something that only Grayson Allen can appreciate. They have championship experience and some foreknowledge of how tough it is and how rewarding it can be.