Mid-major basketball often takes a back seat to power conferences during the regular season, but what are some major questions facing mid-majors?
It seems like every season more mid-majors are missing out on bids in comparison to the year prior. Are we going to see that trend continue this season or are we going to see some mid-majors jump out of nowhere for at-large bids this season? Mid-majors are always known for their upset potential in the NCAA Tournament, but it is important to take note of the mid-major teams throughout the year.
Let’s take a look at five major questions facing mid-majors this year:
1. Will the Mountain West get multiple bids this season?
The past couple of years have been down for what has long been considered the top mid-major conference in basketball. Teams normally successful (San Diego State, UNLV, and New Mexico) haven’t been good as of late and it is hurting the overall strength of the conference.
Yet, all three have seen a recruiting and talent resurgence and should be much better in the future. Teams like Nevada, Fresno State, and Boise State remain contenders from last season. There might not be “great” teams, but more “good” ones this season. A stronger conference at the bottom this season, it is possible that the Mountain West can return to being a multi-bid league.
2. Is the Atlantic 10 a one-bid league?
If the Mountain West is the best of the rest, the A-10 isn’t far behind. It has consistently been sending multiple teams to the tournament and making noise once there. The problem with this season, though, is that two of its core programs (VCU and Dayton) lost both their head coaches and best players in the offseason. Rhode Island is the clear favorite in the league and has a good chance of an at-large if needed. If the Rams do get the automatic bid, who else will get in?
3. Will Saint Mary’s finally dethrone Gonzaga?
For the first time in 17 years, Gonzaga was not picked to finish first in the West Coast Conference. That honor belongs to the Gaels of Saint Mary’s, who returns four seniors, including All-American candidate Jock Landale.
With the Zags starting to go after four and five-star prospects, this may truly be the last time a team over than the Bulldogs can reasonably win the WCC. If Saint Mary’s can’t do it this time, they may never best the Zags for the title.
4. Outside of the Zags and Gaels, who can make a run in the NCAA Tournament?
There were two non-power conference programs ranked in the AP top 25 poll: Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s. Those were both expected, but are there others who can creep up and do some damage later in the year? Absolutely.
There are a few teams who have the talent to make a run in March Madness. The Sun Belt’s Texas Arlington has one of the best players in the country you haven’t heard of in Kevin Hervey. Representing the Horizon, Oakland looks a world apart from the rest of the competition. Other teams like Florida Gulf Coast, Vermont, College of Charleston and the top three Ivy squads will be dangerous 12-13 seeds. That is, if they can get in.
5. How many mid-majors will get an at-large bid?
The number of bids for mid-majors has steadily declined from double-digits in a season to just three a year ago. Reasons for this have ranged from inability to schedule quality games to the top mid-majors such as Butler and Wichita State leaving for bigger conferences.
Next: Mountain West predictions for 2017-18
Assuming the West Coast Conference provides the first teams, there’s few assurances where the other bids come from. It could be a good thing this year if the heavy favorites handle their business in the conference tournament and leave nothing to doubt. If they slip, Selection Sunday could be worrisome for those teams, especially given the recent history.