Iowa Basketball: Why are the Hawkeyes struggling this season?
Iowa basketball has struggled to start the season. What do the Hawkeyes need to address and why have they been so disappointing?
The Iowa Hawkeyes had NCAA Tournament aspirations coming into the season and these expectations were warranted, even with the loss of star Peter Jok. Jok was Iowa’s leading scorer (19.9ppg) and overall best player last season, but four returning starters provided the reason for optimism.
Three of the four returning starters were freshmen last season and were expected to make a jump in their sophomore seasons. The only rotation player to leave (besides Jok) was backup point guard Christian Williams and, with a strong recruiting class in hand, Iowa was projected to be deep and talented. Freshman center Luka Garza was seen as the star of the recruiting class and received significant preseason buzz.
Fast forward one month into the season and Iowa’s season has been a disaster. The Hawkeyes were projected by many, including myself, as a preseason NCAA Tournament team, but they already have two sub-100 losses and their best win has come against UAB (133rd in KenPom). Iowa’s other three wins have come against sub-325 teams in KenPom, so they have lost almost every remotely challenging game that they have played.
There are a variety of reasons for their disappointing play when diving into the numbers. Defensively, Iowa gives up offensive rebounds on 31.7% of opponent’s possessions which ranks 254th in the country and they only force turnovers on 17.8% of possessions, which ranks 249th in the country. A team can make up for their weaknesses on the boards by pressuring the ball and forcing turnovers, but Iowa is struggling in both of those areas as well. This means Iowa has no reliable way to limit opposing possessions and when teams have additional opportunities to score, they will take advantage.
Iowa’s offense has also struggled, particularly with free throws and turnovers. The Hawkeyes are shooting 65.5% from the line which ranks 286th in the nation. They have many strong free throw shooters, but the players who get to the line the most are the worst shooters. Luka Garza and Cordell Pemsl are second and third on the team in free throw attempts, but both shoot around 50% from the line.
Point guard Jordan Bohannon had an excellent freshman season and is probably Iowa’s best player. He has a great assist to turnover ratio (4.7 apg : 2.1 topg) but is one of the few Hawkeyes who can consistently handle the ball and create offense. Isaiah Moss and Nicholas Baer play significant minutes on the wing and each average over two turnovers per game and power forward Tyler Cook averages 1.9 turnovers in each contest.
In addition, part of the team’s struggles can be contributed to strange roster and lineup construction. Teams have been playing small more frequently and use multiple wings to create a versatile lineup, but Iowa has been playing lineups with two or three big men at once. This is due to their surplus of capable big men and lack of guards and wings on the roster. It does not help that one of their few wings, Baer, missed the start of the season due to injury.
Jack Nunge and Ahmad Wagner have been playing most of their minutes at the three even though both would be more effective at the four. These players are forced out of position because players like Cook, Pemsl, and Garza need minutes at the four and five. Nunge and Wagner are not as perimeter oriented or as mobile defensively as a traditional wing, so these lineups negatively impact both sides of the ball.
It is extremely concerning that Iowa struggles to defensively rebound even with their big lineup. One of the main reasons to play “traditionally” with two bigs is to control the glass, but Iowa is a poor defensive rebounding team despite their style. The Hawkeyes are a strong offensive rebounding team (44th in the country) which makes their defensive rebounding struggles even more strange.
One positive for Iowa is that they are shooting the three ball extremely well at 40% (43rd in the nation). However, due to their big man-centric lineup, they are only 178th in the country in points coming off of 3-pointers. If Iowa can shoot more threes, their offense will improve, but that will require a lineup change, and given the roster construction, that looks very unlikely. Iowa needs a smaller lineup with more players who can create offense to enact this change.
Next: Big Ten power rankings (edition one)
Iowa does not have many chances in the non-conference to enhance their resume and with the Big Ten experiencing a down year, the Hawkeyes will have to fight for an NIT berth. However, all of Iowa’s key players are slated to return for next season, so next year could bring more success.